Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[moneypitmike]

Silver-lining of SE shifts (or shafts) is less taint risk.

All that said, the forecast (here) is showing 70% chance of snow.  Not very Bermuda-esque.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/3/2022 at 9:04 PM, moneypitmike said:

Silver-lining of SE shifts (or shafts) is less taint risk.

All that said, the forecast (here) is showing 70% chance of snow.  Not very Bermuda-esque.

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I’d rather sniff taint than exhaust. To each their own fetish though.

[Damage In Tolland]

Mitch with many bodies showing .. needs this one 

 

[moneypitmike]

  On 1/3/2022 at 9:19 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Mitch with many bodies showing .. needs this one 

 

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Well a LI to BOS track would suck .

Edit:  for the vast majority of us.  Congrats  Chris to Dendrite to Jeff.

[weathafella]

  On 1/3/2022 at 9:21 PM, moneypitmike said:

Well a LI to BOS track would suck .

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I think it would be funny tbh.  At least I’d laugh and not worry about snow blowing.  But I admit I’d be happier with a bench track.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/3/2022 at 9:21 PM, moneypitmike said:

Well a LI to BOS track would suck .

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Well that’s too far west since nothing shows that and he’s just wishcasting . My gut says it tickles ACK to just east of elbow 

[tavwtby]

  On 1/3/2022 at 8:57 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

 

No one should be "trusting" anything.   The models are varying like they should, and usually do...at this range.  Now sure what else needs explaining? 

Maybe we should start threads that are science concept, then, have a side-car thread linked to it that is an emotional catch-basin/support group. LOL.  J/k but yeah

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I wanted an explanation on the GFS op v ensemble v mean, is the op run the most reliable, are there certain algorithms or parameters in common that make it the op, or is it simply the initial run and the other members are spit out in order, that's what I never knew and thought someone could explain... relevant to this signal, the GFS op is basically ots with the 7th, but has many members near the BM, so hence my curiosity.

[qg_omega]

  On 1/3/2022 at 9:23 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Well that’s too far west since nothing shows that and he’s just wishcasting . My gut says it tickles ACK to just east of elbow 

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Gut on this is a whiff

[78Blizzard]

RGEM still looks good.

[dryslot]

  On 1/3/2022 at 8:57 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

 

No one should be "trusting" anything.   The models are varying like they should, and usually do...at this range.  Now sure what else needs explaining? 

Maybe we should start threads that are science concept, then, have a side-car thread linked to it that is an emotional catch-basin/support group. LOL.  J/k but yeah

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We do, Its the panic thread, Where anyone can go in and have a melt down.

[78Blizzard]

  On 1/3/2022 at 9:23 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Well that’s too far west since nothing shows that and he’s just wishcasting . My gut says it tickles ACK to just east of elbow 

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I'm going with between ACK and BM.  No taint for anyone here.  Sorry Mitch.

[dryslot]

Looks like its going over the elbow.

[moneypitmike]

  On 1/3/2022 at 9:36 PM, dryslot said:

Looks like its going over the elbow..

 

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Congrats.

[BombsAway1288]

  On 1/3/2022 at 9:24 PM, qg_omega said:

Gut on this is a whiff

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Really!? I would of thought you of all people would say this is gonna crush the 95 corridor. Really surprised you're going with a whiff and no snow accumulation 

[codfishsnowman]

There have been so many big storms the past 25 to 30 years. Personally, many have irritated the fook out of me but as I have gotten older I have learned that I just unluckily live in a tough area for big backyard events. Even last winter we had two double digit events here in the bowels of death valley.

We all are so spoiled. BDL only averages one double digit event every 4 seasons. If we get crushed...great or if Albany gets crushed or maybe the big stuff buries Nantucket so be it. 

At least it's not the 80s!!

 

 

 

[PhineasC]

I agree with Mitch. SE Mass really needs the rain. Big drought there. 

[ineedsnow]

GFS looks the same as 12z

[Greg]

  On 1/3/2022 at 10:02 PM, ineedsnow said:

GFS looks the same as 12z

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At least it didn't head further SE from 12Z.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/3/2022 at 10:02 PM, ineedsnow said:

GFS looks the same as 12z

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Who cares. Tossed with no support from anything 

[Henry's Weather]

  On 1/3/2022 at 8:57 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

 

No one should be "trusting" anything.   The models are varying like they should, and usually do...at this range.  Now sure what else needs explaining? 

Maybe we should start threads that are science concept, then, have a side-car thread linked to it that is an emotional catch-basin/support group. LOL.  J/k but yeah

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Why the JK? that sounds great

[JC-CT]

I've certainly seen better model agreement at this lead time.

[ROOSTA]

  On 1/3/2022 at 10:11 PM, Henry's Weather said:

Why the JK? that sounds great

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I second the concept. Red Tag only based on science thread. Many times one gets lost (Atleast I do) in the quagmire of frivilous posts.

[78Blizzard]

  On 1/3/2022 at 10:21 PM, JC-CT said:

I've certainly seen better model agreement at this lead time.

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Any continuing SE movement by the Euro and we may be congratulating a new king, lol.

[MJO812]

  On 1/3/2022 at 10:02 PM, ineedsnow said:

GFS looks the same as 12z

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Slightly better

[MJO812]

Gefs

[JC-CT]

  On 1/3/2022 at 10:25 PM, 78Blizzard said:

Any continuing SE movement by the Euro and we may be congratulating a new king, lol.

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there's some stupid low pressure hanging out by florida that seems like it might try to muck this up

[ineedsnow]

GEFS coming in a little better and a bit stronger

[George001]

The gfs had me getting a foot of snow for today’s storm just a few days out. I didn’t get a flake. This one isn’t going out to sea.

[MJO812]

West lean

[ineedsnow]

some strong members over the cape and just east of it