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Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Of course you use the Ensm but just want to make sure we're all looking at the same Op model output.  Saying the Euro was weaker when it had a closed off circulation from the surface up through 700mb, is incorrect.

Just taking a glance at it at the surface it was not any weaker by any means unless you want to say a mb or so.

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Baroclinic Zone
Baroclinic Zone

This should cover it.

HoarfrostHubb
HoarfrostHubb

All those cars I see in the morning must be going to the pot shops

CoastalWx
CoastalWx

You don't even need fancy fronto maps to see where pound town is below. Look at that inflow at 50-60kts slam into the s coast with lighter winds to the north. There is your front and convergence. Air

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Theres also still a lot of spread. When you see this type of spread, you really shouldn't be living and dying with each OP run....the OP run is basically another ensemble member...maybe a slightly more skilled one, but just one member nonetheless.

 

 

Jan3_12zEPS96.png

Jan3_12zEPS102.png

I completelly agree with your general sentiment.  That said, there are a not insignificant members well to the east of of main cluster.  With that, I'd tend to view Tip's "correction vector" eastward. 

note:  not panicing--just observing.

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IowaStorm05

IowaStorm05

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Meanwhile I am looking forward to starting a thread on our day 13 megablizzard

Megablizzards love to pop in 2 weeks out. But they don’t seem to show up or materialize as often 3 days out. Why?

it’s a question of…. If these are so rare, why do they show up at 2 weeks predictive models so often, only to go away as you move closer?

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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34 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS looks fine for western crowd too. Everyone calm down  lol. This won’t whiff.

Not to indict anyone but heh ... I almost get the feeling there's some that almost want it to ? 

Guess folks got their agenda -

Just wanna remind ( not you per se but I feel like this message isn't getting across ) ... This ordeal was packaged originally as unclear on scale of magnitude.  And it was also noted - at least by me and probably a few others ... - that it would probably be Wednesday-ish before this coalesced around the 'gonna happen x-y-z way' vibe, at which point divvy up peoples allotted proportions...  Lol

anyway... we'll see. 

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Theres also still a lot of spread. When you see this type of spread, you really shouldn't be living and dying with each OP run....the OP run is basically another ensemble member...maybe a slightly more skilled one, but just one member nonetheless.

 

 

Jan3_12zEPS96.png

Jan3_12zEPS102.png

that still looks great to me.  if there's a cluster it is inside the BM

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
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57 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The ridge out west is flat and the pattern is progressive, but the S/W enters the lower 48 so far west and has time to dig down into the Central Plains/TN Valley which might be able to counteract the negatives...if the S/W was coming in over ND/MN and diving into the Oh Valley/Apps I would be more concerned it would just be shunted out eventually

That's where all the variance is coming from too. That handoff from the North Pacific into the western "ridge". Still looking at tomorrow/tomorrow night when some balloons may be able to sample some of that.

46 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS looks fine for western crowd too. Everyone calm down  lol. This won’t whiff.

All the spread is in the area of a tucked solution. 

WPC cluster analysis is nearly split down the middle. 55% of the members farther east, 45% tucked in closer.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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47 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Theres also still a lot of spread. When you see this type of spread, you really shouldn't be living and dying with each OP run....the OP run is basically another ensemble member...maybe a slightly more skilled one, but just one member nonetheless.

 

 

Jan3_12zEPS96.png

Jan3_12zEPS102.png

Plus ... regardless of which ens mean I've seen, the spread 'smear' has always been highlighting over the western envelope, which often precedes correction vectors/future guidance.

Best example of that was the April '97 season ending blueberry beauty with whipcream on top.  D6 lead had the low out near Nova Scotia, but the ( primitive by today's standards - ) MRF ens mean showed that smear back toward the Cape.   Gee - wonder if it corrected west, huh.

Personally?  I feel Scott's concern for tuck is still very much on the table. But, I also feel that a bomb just too far SE could be too.  I don't think placement and magnitude are going to really coalesce until after the SPV split up there, and the models sample what really is delivered.  The western ridge is still wild-card - subtle variances therein have impacts on the former.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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29 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

That's where all the variance is coming from too. That handoff from the North Pacific into the western "ridge". Still looking at tomorrow/tomorrow night when some balloons may be able to sample some of that.

All the spread is in the area of a tucked solution. 

WPC cluster analysis is nearly split down the middle. 55% of the members farther east, 45% tucked in closer.

Yup ... I've been mentioning this too on multiple occasions, how sensitive this thing is to that.  The PNA mode change - is it exerting a ridge?  Or is it more 'relaxation' in/of the -PNA dominance? 

We seem to be on the fence as to which.

The S/W in and of its self is very powerful.  Some of these runs have 150 to 170 mph 300 mb wind maxes.   Buck-20 at 500 mb. 

Here's the the thing ... folks should dig up November 86 for a flat wave NJ model bomb that laid 15" over SE zones.  God it's like wow -

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Greg

Greg

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yup ... I've been mentioning this too on multiple occasions, how sensitive this thing is to that.  The PNA mode change - is it exerting a ridge?  Or is it more 'relaxation' in/of the -PNA dominance? 

We seem to be on the fence as to which.

The S/W in and of its self is very powerful.  Some of these runs have 150 to 170 mph 300 mb wind maxes.   Buck-20 at 500 mb. 

Here's the the thing ... folks should dig up November 86 for a flat wave NJ model bomb that laid 15" over SE zones.  God it's like wow -

Tip, do mean November of 1987? Not sure myself though.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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13 minutes ago, Greg said:

Tip, do mean November of 1987? Not sure myself though.

Probably ?

Lol

yeah no - 1987.  It was a flat wave and NWS put up a winter storm watch at 4pm for that same overnight... I awoke at 3am to the sound of thunder.  The sky glowing butterscotch ...another flash.   Wind and snow occasional lightning... It only last 4 or 5 hours, but longer SE.... We got 9" out in Acton, but I recall some lollypops to 15 around NE RI and the SW burbs of Boston.  

I remember that previous afternoon, ... cleveland was reporting thunder snow, and TWC mets were all giddy.   It was a great!  I mean...come home from school on a boring brown Novemeber typical Tuesday... I wanna say 11th or so...maybe 13th ... Turn on TWC to that... and just then, the TV beeps.   Not sure if this still happens on regular network television but back in that era, tickers scrolled for weather alerts.   While I was watching the coverage of N Ohio, the beeps fired off and, "...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON MASSACHUSETTS HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR WORCESTER, MIDDLESEX, SUFFOLK ....   4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW.."

It was a flat open wave with a 45 vmax like a torpedo.  It sniffed the Jersey shore and the PP falls were immediate and insane, as was the leaf explosion on satellite/radar expansion. 

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tavwtby

tavwtby

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Posted

and this is why we usually wait until the s/w or waves in question come ashore and get sampled more and into the algorithm, than trusting a KU at a range of 14 days, or even 7 for that matter, Wednesday runs will be the time to invest, hopefully clusters are still around the BM and SE ticks reverse course, but as history shows, being invested early can lead to let down and curtain closings... also curious why the GFS op shows basically nothing but Gefs shows a good cluster of members, is the op the initial run, a mean of members or the most reliable run? I've never gotten that, maybe one can explain it better to me, thanks.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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13 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

and this is why we usually wait until the s/w or waves in question come ashore and get sampled more and into the algorithm, than trusting a KU at a range of 14 days, or even 7 for that matter, Wednesday runs will be the time to invest, hopefully clusters are still around the BM and SE ticks reverse course, but as history shows, being invested early can lead to let down and curtain closings... also curious why the GFS op shows basically nothing but Gefs shows a good cluster of members, is the op the initial run, a mean of members or the most reliable run? I've never gotten that, maybe one can explain it better to me, thanks.

 

No one should be "trusting" anything.   The models are varying like they should, and usually do...at this range.  Now sure what else needs explaining? 

Maybe we should start threads that are science concept, then, have a side-car thread linked to it that is an emotional catch-basin/support group. LOL.  J/k but yeah

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