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Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?


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  On 1/3/2022 at 6:40 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I agree, not liking the trends for us...

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The ridge out west is flat and the pattern is progressive, but the S/W enters the lower 48 so far west and has time to dig down into the Central Plains/TN Valley which might be able to counteract the negatives...if the S/W was coming in over ND/MN and diving into the Oh Valley/Apps I would be more concerned it would just be shunted out eventually

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  On 1/3/2022 at 6:58 PM, CoastalWx said:

EPS looks fine for western crowd too. Everyone calm down  lol. This won’t whiff.

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meh Jan 10 onward lol

solid track, must be a lot of late developers based on distribution of precip.. but we have time for that, let's not move this too far east for us WOR 

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  On 1/3/2022 at 6:56 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I thought it was a pretty dynamic storm on the euro… probably see people over 12” with that 

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Of course you did. The only ones who would, would be slapping weenies with you in your basement. I doubt you see over 12” as is. More like a 8-12” max zone out there. 

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  On 1/3/2022 at 7:03 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Of course you did. The only ones who would, would be slapping weenies with you in your basement. I doubt you see over 12” as is. More like a 8-12” max zone out there. 

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Just because it’s further East doesn’t mean it’s less dynamic.   I think however you are referring to qpf fields which are less robust.

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Theres also still a lot of spread. When you see this type of spread, you really shouldn't be living and dying with each OP run....the OP run is basically another ensemble member...maybe a slightly more skilled one, but just one member nonetheless.

 

 

Jan3_12zEPS96.png

Jan3_12zEPS102.png

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  On 1/3/2022 at 7:15 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Theres also still a lot of spread. When you see this type of spread, you really shouldn't be living and dying with each OP run....the OP run is basically another ensemble member...maybe a slightly more skilled one, but just one member nonetheless.

 

 

Jan3_12zEPS96.png

Jan3_12zEPS102.png

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Of course you use the Ensm but just want to make sure we're all looking at the same Op model output.  Saying the Euro was weaker when it had a closed off circulation from the surface up through 700mb, is incorrect.

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