Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[Sey-Mour Snow]

  On 1/3/2022 at 6:25 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

That’s actually a big move se. Any more moves se and it’s curtains for west zones.

 

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I agree, not liking the trends for us...

[mahk_webstah]

  On 1/3/2022 at 6:25 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

That’s actually a big move se. Any more moves se and it’s curtains for west zones.

 

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I feels ur pain.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 1/3/2022 at 6:37 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We don’t invest these days until inside 48hr. 
 

12z trends are clear though, se and weaker. 

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That’s the main point I have taken out of today’s runs. If that continues tonight then you and I might be cooked for anything meaningful. 

[MJO812]

  On 1/3/2022 at 6:40 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I agree, not liking the trends for us...

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4 days out

[Hoth]

I'd settle for a 3-6" type deal at this point. Just want it to look like winter for once.

[mahk_webstah]

maybe 1 more move SE, but lets see what ENS say, then 3 moves NW, then the Messenger shuffle at the end.  Worcester wins.  Tblizz cries over not jackpotting, BZ issues some snark, and DIT acts like he forecasted exactly that outcome.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/3/2022 at 6:40 PM, Baroclinic Zone said:

Euro was a 980mb low.  I would not call that weak or weaker.  00z run had a 981mb low.

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Got going later, less dynamic for most outside of a small zone in sema. 

[SnowGoose69]

  On 1/3/2022 at 6:40 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I agree, not liking the trends for us...

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The ridge out west is flat and the pattern is progressive, but the S/W enters the lower 48 so far west and has time to dig down into the Central Plains/TN Valley which might be able to counteract the negatives...if the S/W was coming in over ND/MN and diving into the Oh Valley/Apps I would be more concerned it would just be shunted out eventually

[Baroclinic Zone]

  On 1/3/2022 at 6:46 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Got going later, less dynamic for most outside of a small zone in sema. 

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Disagree.  The upper air pattern shifted, pushing the storm eastward.  It was just as dymanic.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 1/3/2022 at 6:37 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We don’t invest these days until inside 48hr. 
 

12z trends are clear though, se and weaker. 

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Very clear . All were SE almost all weaker 

back to crypto milfs and skiing ,mean  while Hoping things reverse 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 1/3/2022 at 6:51 PM, Baroclinic Zone said:

Disagree.  The upper air pattern shifted, pushing the storm eastward.  It was just as dymanic.

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I thought it was a pretty dynamic storm on the euro… probably see people over 12” with that 

[CoastalWx]

EPS looks fine for western crowd too. Everyone calm down  lol. This won’t whiff.

[mahk_webstah]

  On 1/3/2022 at 6:58 PM, CoastalWx said:

EPS looks fine for western crowd too. Everyone calm down  lol. This won’t whiff.

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a big hug for you!!!!  thanks.

[WxWatcher007]

  On 1/3/2022 at 6:58 PM, CoastalWx said:

EPS looks fine for western crowd too. Everyone calm down  lol. This won’t whiff.

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Everyone on the ledge lol

 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

  On 1/3/2022 at 6:58 PM, CoastalWx said:

EPS looks fine for western crowd too. Everyone calm down  lol. This won’t whiff.

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meh Jan 10 onward lol

solid track, must be a lot of late developers based on distribution of precip.. but we have time for that, let's not move this too far east for us WOR 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Nothing huge, but will take

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/3/2022 at 6:56 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I thought it was a pretty dynamic storm on the euro… probably see people over 12” with that 

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Of course you did. The only ones who would, would be slapping weenies with you in your basement. I doubt you see over 12” as is. More like a 8-12” max zone out there. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

  On 1/3/2022 at 7:03 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Of course you did. The only ones who would, would be slapping weenies with you in your basement. I doubt you see over 12” as is. More like a 8-12” max zone out there. 

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Not a slow mover...  hard to get much over 8" for anyone

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/3/2022 at 7:01 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

meh Jan 10 onward

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True. But if it happens great. That’s the tude we take. My concern is still a hugger.

[weathafella]

  On 1/3/2022 at 7:03 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Of course you did. The only ones who would, would be slapping weenies with you in your basement. I doubt you see over 12” as is. More like a 8-12” max zone out there. 

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Just because it’s further East doesn’t mean it’s less dynamic.   I think however you are referring to qpf fields which are less robust.

[Great Snow 1717]

  On 1/3/2022 at 7:00 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

Everyone on the ledge lol

 

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[Sey-Mour Snow]

  On 1/3/2022 at 7:04 PM, CoastalWx said:

True. But if it happens great. That’s the tude we take. My concern is still a hugger.

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combine our concerns and we are both happy with the end storm result

[Snowcrazed71]

You guys are freaking out. Look what happened with today's storm. It really didn't become a " thing " until a few days ago. Relax... Things are bound to change ( good or bad ). 

[weathafella]

All of the ensembles are good for Friday.   What else do you need to know?

[Greg]

Everybody is going to get emotional with every knee jerk tic with the models. People are starved for snow now because of this lousy La Nina pattern.

[ORH_wxman]

Theres also still a lot of spread. When you see this type of spread, you really shouldn't be living and dying with each OP run....the OP run is basically another ensemble member...maybe a slightly more skilled one, but just one member nonetheless.

 

 

[JC-CT]

  On 1/3/2022 at 6:55 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Very clear . All were SE almost all weaker 

back to crypto milfs and skiing ,mean  while Hoping things reverse 

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Lol, are you a sol sl*t boy?

[dryslot]

  On 1/3/2022 at 6:58 PM, CoastalWx said:

EPS looks fine for western crowd too. Everyone calm down  lol. This won’t whiff.

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Many are walking on eggshells in here.

[Baroclinic Zone]

  On 1/3/2022 at 7:15 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Theres also still a lot of spread. When you see this type of spread, you really shouldn't be living and dying with each OP run....the OP run is basically another ensemble member...maybe a slightly more skilled one, but just one member nonetheless.

 

 

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Of course you use the Ensm but just want to make sure we're all looking at the same Op model output.  Saying the Euro was weaker when it had a closed off circulation from the surface up through 700mb, is incorrect.

[weathafella]

  On 1/3/2022 at 7:23 PM, dryslot said:

Many are walking on eggshells in here.

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Definitely the worst I’ve seen it.  You have a whole contingent of eeyores vs mpm in the old days.