Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[Sey-Mour Snow]

15 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

That’s actually a big move se. Any more moves se and it’s curtains for west zones.

 

I agree, not liking the trends for us...

[mahk_webstah]

16 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

That’s actually a big move se. Any more moves se and it’s curtains for west zones.

 

I feels ur pain.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We don’t invest these days until inside 48hr. 
 

12z trends are clear though, se and weaker. 

That’s the main point I have taken out of today’s runs. If that continues tonight then you and I might be cooked for anything meaningful. 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I agree, not liking the trends for us...

4 days out

[Hoth]

I'd settle for a 3-6" type deal at this point. Just want it to look like winter for once.

[mahk_webstah]

maybe 1 more move SE, but lets see what ENS say, then 3 moves NW, then the Messenger shuffle at the end.  Worcester wins.  Tblizz cries over not jackpotting, BZ issues some snark, and DIT acts like he forecasted exactly that outcome.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Euro was a 980mb low.  I would not call that weak or weaker.  00z run had a 981mb low.

Got going later, less dynamic for most outside of a small zone in sema. 

[SnowGoose69]

5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I agree, not liking the trends for us...

The ridge out west is flat and the pattern is progressive, but the S/W enters the lower 48 so far west and has time to dig down into the Central Plains/TN Valley which might be able to counteract the negatives...if the S/W was coming in over ND/MN and diving into the Oh Valley/Apps I would be more concerned it would just be shunted out eventually

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Got going later, less dynamic for most outside of a small zone in sema. 

Disagree.  The upper air pattern shifted, pushing the storm eastward.  It was just as dymanic.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

18 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We don’t invest these days until inside 48hr. 
 

12z trends are clear though, se and weaker. 

Very clear . All were SE almost all weaker 

back to crypto milfs and skiing ,mean  while Hoping things reverse 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Disagree.  The upper air pattern shifted, pushing the storm eastward.  It was just as dymanic.

I thought it was a pretty dynamic storm on the euro… probably see people over 12” with that 

[CoastalWx]

EPS looks fine for western crowd too. Everyone calm down  lol. This won’t whiff.

[mahk_webstah]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

EPS looks fine for western crowd too. Everyone calm down  lol. This won’t whiff.

a big hug for you!!!!  thanks.

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS looks fine for western crowd too. Everyone calm down  lol. This won’t whiff.

Everyone on the ledge lol

 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS looks fine for western crowd too. Everyone calm down  lol. This won’t whiff.

meh Jan 10 onward lol

solid track, must be a lot of late developers based on distribution of precip.. but we have time for that, let's not move this too far east for us WOR 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Nothing huge, but will take

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I thought it was a pretty dynamic storm on the euro… probably see people over 12” with that 

Of course you did. The only ones who would, would be slapping weenies with you in your basement. I doubt you see over 12” as is. More like a 8-12” max zone out there. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Of course you did. The only ones who would, would be slapping weenies with you in your basement. I doubt you see over 12” as is. More like a 8-12” max zone out there. 

Not a slow mover...  hard to get much over 8" for anyone

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

meh Jan 10 onward

True. But if it happens great. That’s the tude we take. My concern is still a hugger.

[weathafella]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Of course you did. The only ones who would, would be slapping weenies with you in your basement. I doubt you see over 12” as is. More like a 8-12” max zone out there. 

Just because it’s further East doesn’t mean it’s less dynamic.   I think however you are referring to qpf fields which are less robust.

[Great Snow 1717]

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Everyone on the ledge lol

 

 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

True. But if it happens great. That’s the tude we take. My concern is still a hugger.

combine our concerns and we are both happy with the end storm result

[Snowcrazed71]

You guys are freaking out. Look what happened with today's storm. It really didn't become a " thing " until a few days ago. Relax... Things are bound to change ( good or bad ). 

[weathafella]

All of the ensembles are good for Friday.   What else do you need to know?

[Greg]

Everybody is going to get emotional with every knee jerk tic with the models. People are starved for snow now because of this lousy La Nina pattern.

[ORH_wxman]

Theres also still a lot of spread. When you see this type of spread, you really shouldn't be living and dying with each OP run....the OP run is basically another ensemble member...maybe a slightly more skilled one, but just one member nonetheless.

 

 

[JC-CT]

21 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Very clear . All were SE almost all weaker 

back to crypto milfs and skiing ,mean  while Hoping things reverse 

Lol, are you a sol sl*t boy?

[dryslot]

23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS looks fine for western crowd too. Everyone calm down  lol. This won’t whiff.

Many are walking on eggshells in here.

[Baroclinic Zone]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Theres also still a lot of spread. When you see this type of spread, you really shouldn't be living and dying with each OP run....the OP run is basically another ensemble member...maybe a slightly more skilled one, but just one member nonetheless.

 

 

Of course you use the Ensm but just want to make sure we're all looking at the same Op model output.  Saying the Euro was weaker when it had a closed off circulation from the surface up through 700mb, is incorrect.

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Many are walking on eggshells in here.

Definitely the worst I’ve seen it.  You have a whole contingent of eeyores vs mpm in the old days.