Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[Cyclone-68]

Does anyone remember what is Boston’s latest inch of snow? I believe someone mentioned it in another thread? 

[NorEastermass128]

1 minute ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Does anyone remember what is Boston’s latest inch of snow? I believe someone mentioned it in another thread? 

January 12, 2000?

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Not a single model shows it starting on Thursday. Maybe flurries near midnight at the earliest.

Most models show no storm .. so yeah.. I guess you’re right 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

5 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

y'all ready for the euro to cave?

Let’s do this! 

[PhineasC]

5 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

y'all ready for the euro to cave?

Might go further NW. it’s a stubborn SOB. 

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

Might go further NW. it’s a stubborn SOB. 

I like to poke the bear

[rimetree]

Euro will probably look like CMC...they've been almost identical thus far. Pope says it's coming west so no concerns about any OTS solutions.

[Henry's Weather]

Very strong cross-ensemble agreement of signal for a coastal 4-5 days out. Do not live and die by the vicissitudes of the operational runs, because we have like 3 "trends" to go before game-time. This system is also an emergent of a jet displacement on the west coast resulting in a +2 SD change in PNA value, so it has strong synoptic support. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Most models show no storm .. so yeah.. I guess you’re right 

Beer?

[Cyclone-68]

7 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

January 12, 2000?

Heck I say let’s break the record first and then let it stack 

[JC-CT]

6 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Very strong cross-ensemble agreement of signal for a coastal 4-5 days out. Do not live and die by the vicissitudes of the operational runs, because we have like 3 "trends" to go before game-time. This system is also an emergent of a jet displacement on the west coast resulting in a +2 SD change in PNA value, so it has strong synoptic support.

I was going to say that I think everyone agrees in the formation of some type of coastal system, but then, you know, Kevin.

[mahk_webstah]

9 minutes ago, rimetree said:

Euro will probably look like CMC...they've been almost identical thus far. Pope says it's coming west so no concerns about any OTS solutions.

Somewhere between the pope and revkev works for me.

[dryslot]

There is another system on thurs we need to get thru before fridays that actually may be having an affect on the models because of spacing.

[George001]

The benchmark is 75 miles se of Nantucket right? Looks to me like on most guidance the low is well NW of that. If anything it’s going to be rain snow lines that are the issue, not the storm being too weak or far south based on the current guidance.

[weathafella]

17 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

January 12, 2000?

Not only was that the latest inch that was the latest first flakes I believe 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, George001 said:

The benchmark is 75 miles se of Nantucket right? Looks to me like on most guidance the low is well NW of that. If anything it’s going to be rain snow lines that are the issue, not the storm being too weak or far south based on the current guidance.

Due south 40/70

[JC-CT]

Just now, George001 said:

 Looks to me like on most guidance the low is well NW of that.

eh

[ineedsnow]

5 minutes ago, George001 said:

The benchmark is 75 miles se of Nantucket right? Looks to me like on most guidance the low is well NW of that. If anything it’s going to be rain snow lines that are the issue, not the storm being too weak or far south based on the current guidance.

walk to the sink and put cold water on your face.. it will help you wake up and stop dreaming 

[weathafella]

Euro gonna be a doozy

[ineedsnow]

Just now, weathafella said:

Euro gonna be a doozy

ya I dont think this run backs down but we'll see

[moneypitmike]

Just now, weathafella said:

Euro gonna be a doozy

doozy vs. snoozy.

[MJO812]

Folded on an amp solution 

[dryslot]

Going to cave some from 0z run it seems to the east.

[PhineasC]

Just now, dryslot said:

Going to cave some from 0z run it seems to the east.

Wagons East. 

[ORH_wxman]

It's gonna be SE of 00z, but it is not going to be a whiff by any stretch.

[MJO812]

[Great Snow 1717]

4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

walk to the sink and put cold water on your face.. it will help you wake up and stop dreaming 

This may be better...

 

[weathafella]

992 over the bm 

[JC-CT]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

It's gonna be SE of 00z, but it is not going to be a whiff by any stretch.

0z was dryslot hell for e mass anyway

[ORH_wxman]

The 00z OP Euro was actually on the western half of the ensemble envelope, so it wasn't likely to hold serve regardless of the other models.