Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[ineedsnow]

  On 1/3/2022 at 5:05 PM, SouthCoastMA said:

That GFS, so hot right now

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Hope it gets the 16th right 

[weathafella]

Uncle is either in rehab or on a bender.  

[PhineasC]

  On 1/3/2022 at 5:03 PM, ORH_wxman said:

2nd best model!!!

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The UKMET suddenly going out to sea is one thing that doesn't worry me much.

[dryslot]

 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I love how yesterday “this is coming west, nothing to stop it” and today it’s “ it’s going to be shredded and southeast, fits the pattern”

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/3/2022 at 5:13 PM, ineedsnow said:

Hope it gets the 16th right 

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Yeah 950mb on the benchmark will probably verify.

[PhineasC]

  On 1/3/2022 at 5:15 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I love how yesterday “this is coming west, nothing to stop it” and today it’s “ it’s going to be shredded and southeast, fits the pattern”

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I have said from the start I thought it was going SE, FWIW.

[SJonesWX]

  On 1/3/2022 at 5:09 PM, dendrite said:

Winter is long and grueling. I sincerely hope no one in SNE cancels winter in the 1st week of January no matter how lousy it has been.

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are you new here?

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/3/2022 at 5:21 PM, SJonesWX said:

are you new here?

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We became unbearable at some point in the 2010s....nobody in here ever canceled winter in December or early January....only Ji did that in the M.A. forum. Now we get it multiple times per winter in here.

[dendrite]

  On 1/3/2022 at 5:21 PM, SJonesWX said:

are you new here?

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Heh...I mean there's a difference between melting posts people like to make to vent and truly believing winter is done. I feel like 99% of us fall in the former category...even DIT.

[bristolri_wx]

  On 1/3/2022 at 5:23 PM, ORH_wxman said:

We became unbearable at some point in the 2010s....nobody in here ever canceled winter in December or early January....only Ji did that in the M.A. forum. Now we get it multiple times per winter in here.

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People can’t even figure out which potential storm this thread is for lol…

[ineedsnow]

thread title should be changed GFS kicked the UKIES  butt at 12z 

[Great Snow 1717]

  On 1/3/2022 at 5:24 PM, bristolri_wx said:

People can’t even figure out which potential storm this thread is for lol…

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Sooo many storms so little time...

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 1/3/2022 at 5:14 PM, PhineasC said:

The UKMET suddenly going out to sea is one thing that doesn't worry me much.

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It’s not a good thing if you want snow , that’s pretty clear 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 1/3/2022 at 5:26 PM, Great Snow 1717 said:

Sooo many storms so little results

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Fixed it for you.

[bristolri_wx]

  On 1/3/2022 at 5:15 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I love how yesterday “this is coming west, nothing to stop it” and today it’s “ it’s going to be shredded and southeast, fits the pattern”

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The models are clearly having issues with this overall winter pattern. This is going to be a tough forecasting season. I’m sure there are “improvements” using 500mb “verifications” though lol…

[Great Snow 1717]

  On 1/3/2022 at 5:27 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Fixed it for you.

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TY!! lol

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Cmc SE about 100 miles (great news if it stops right there) . Thou it’s usually over amped 

[Hazey]

12z suite got me off the bench and into the bullpen. 12z Gefs mean is pure gold for Leo and I.


#NovaScotiaStrong

[CoastalWx]

Some of you are assuming D4 plus variability just doesn’t happen. The swings can happen. I’m not sure why people are locked into solutions five days out thinking that’s gonna happen.

[George001]

Miller Bs are known for being tough to forecast. We will know more in a couple of days, but from what we see on the models it’s looking like there will be a big storm threat on Friday. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

12z gefs SE of 6z but still better than 0z gefs

 

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/3/2022 at 5:31 PM, CoastalWx said:

Some of you are assuming D4 plus variability just doesn’t happen. The swings can happen. I’m not sure why people are locked into solutions five days out thinking that’s gonna happen.

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But it starts Thursday late day 

[ineedsnow]

Lol James Spann just posted what someone said to him on twitter.. epic melt by that person.. same melts here at the end of the week?

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/3/2022 at 5:33 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

But it starts Thursday late day 

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Not a single model shows it starting on Thursday. Maybe flurries near midnight at the earliest.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 1/3/2022 at 5:31 PM, CoastalWx said:

Some of you are assuming D4 plus variability just doesn’t happen. The swings can happen. I’m not sure why people are locked into solutions five days out thinking that’s gonna happen.

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Who doesn’t get it . They are just posting their emotions after the latest perceived trend . Everyone knows it can flip anyway going forward but the best chance is a trend that isn’t SE 

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/3/2022 at 5:36 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Who doesn’t get it . They are just posting their emotions after the latest perceived trend . Everyone knows it can flip anyway going forward but the best chance is a trend that isn’t SE 

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The posts scream that people don’t understand model volatility. I like Dryslot’s approach. Talk Wednesday.

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/3/2022 at 5:35 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Not a single model shows it starting on Thursday. Maybe flurries near midnight at the earliest.

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He rushes every event lol.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Yeah… I’m selfishly hoping this pans out so I have snow day Friday. (From work, I’m not 15) lol

[JC-CT]

y'all ready for the euro to cave?