Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[moneypitmike]

Hopefully, the late-to-the-party shift of the GEFS is indicative of a final solution that's a little less tucked than the EC.  Many more runs to figure it out.

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/3/2022 at 10:47 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

Interring set of runs as we hone in on start time late Thursday . We are due for a good old fashioned Scooter melt. He’s good for 1-2 per winter. So this would time well 

Expand  

Why? I know Friday won’t work and it warms up after. More interested after the 10 th.

[ineedsnow]

6z ICON went ots now 

[ineedsnow]

snowed a little in Pensacola this morning yet we have nothing 

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/3/2022 at 10:58 AM, CoastalWx said:

Why? I know Friday won’t work and it warms up after. More interested after the 10 th.

Expand  

Saturday looks cold. You’re thinking it all will melt Sunday ?

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/3/2022 at 11:06 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

Saturday looks cold. You’re thinking it all will melt Sunday ?

Expand  

Probably not if it’s sufficient. We don’t even know what will happen never mind what stays or goes lol. 
 

[HoarfrostHubb]

  On 1/3/2022 at 11:00 AM, ineedsnow said:

6z ICON went ots now 

Expand  

La la la lock it in

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

No consensus at all… whiff to taint city 

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/3/2022 at 11:35 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

No consensus at all… whiff to taint city 

Expand  

It will taint.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 1/3/2022 at 11:36 AM, CoastalWx said:

It will taint.

Expand  

Lol… it’s Monday. You are worse than me lol

[MJO812]

  On 1/3/2022 at 11:37 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Lol… it’s Monday. You are worse than me lol

Expand  

Seriously

[greenmtnwx]

Anyone interested in seeing snow, ACY cam 

 

https://www.webcamtaxi.com/en/usa/new-jersey/boardwalk-atlantic-city.html

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/3/2022 at 11:37 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Lol… it’s Monday. You are worse than me lol

Expand  

It’s the setup. Scooter knows.

[ORH_wxman]

I actually like where this one is right now. You have pretty much all non-GFS guidance with a significant storm and the OP euro is on the western side of the EPS envelope. The classic 70/30 or 80/20 compromise would be ideal. 
 

Too bad it’s not 3 days out instead of 4 though. 

[NorEastermass128]

  On 1/3/2022 at 11:36 AM, CoastalWx said:

It will taint.

Expand  

I saw the NARCAN and reference to 2/1/21. I don’t need to see anything else. I know what that means. 

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/3/2022 at 12:04 PM, NorEastermass128 said:

I saw the NARCAN and reference to 2/1/21. I don’t need to see anything else. I know what that means. 

Expand  

You have a primary with a secondary off the coast. Not much to prevent it due north into SNE. JMHO.

[512high]

  On 1/3/2022 at 11:53 AM, ORH_wxman said:

I actually like where this one is right now. You have pretty much all non-GFS guidance with a significant storm and the OP euro is on the western side of the EPS envelope. The classic 70/30 or 80/20 compromise would be ideal. 
 

Too bad it’s not 3 days out instead of 4 though. 

Expand  

Yup, if this is still showing tomorrow, I will watch closely, however, great to have threats!

[UnitedWx]

  On 1/3/2022 at 11:53 AM, ORH_wxman said:

I actually like where this one is right now. You have pretty much all non-GFS guidance with a significant storm and the OP euro is on the western side of the EPS envelope. The classic 70/30 or 80/20 compromise would be ideal. 
 

Too bad it’s not 3 days out instead of 4 though. 

Expand  

Yeah, if we're still getting this look tomorrow afternoon I'll start getting excited. At least we have something interesting to track 

[NorEastermass128]

  On 1/3/2022 at 12:15 PM, CoastalWx said:

You have a primary with a secondary off the coast. Not much to prevent it due north into SNE. JMHO.

Expand  

Fine by me. We need the rain. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 1/3/2022 at 12:15 PM, CoastalWx said:

You have a primary with a secondary off the coast. Not much to prevent it due north into SNE. JMHO.

Expand  

If that’s the case, it will be congrats NNE

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/3/2022 at 12:26 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

If that’s the case, it will be congrats NNE

Expand  

Probably decent for interior SNE too. Again, I’ve looked past this. 

[jbenedet]

  On 1/3/2022 at 12:15 PM, CoastalWx said:

You have a primary with a secondary off the coast. Not much to prevent it due north into SNE. JMHO.

Expand  

That’s my thinking as well. SLP ends up going over PSM or MHT then ENE. Great storm Berks and most of interior NNE. 

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/3/2022 at 11:53 AM, ORH_wxman said:

I actually like where this one is right now. You have pretty much all non-GFS guidance with a significant storm and the OP euro is on the western side of the EPS envelope. The classic 70/30 or 80/20 compromise would be ideal. 
 

Too bad it’s not 3 days out instead of 4 though. 

Expand  

May be Dryslot issues if it takes the BM to ACK to outer Cape track 

[MJO812]

  On 1/3/2022 at 12:26 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

If that’s the case, it will be congrats NNE

Expand  

Hopefully we all cash in

[EastonSN+]

December 2000. Obviously more blocking but high and tight track with no changeover.

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/3/2022 at 12:42 PM, jbenedet said:

That’s my thinking as well. SLP ends up going over PSM or MHT then ENE. Great storm Berks and most of interior NNE. 

Expand  

Oh you’ll be fine. Dobut  it goes to MHT.

[Baroclinic Zone]

  On 1/3/2022 at 11:37 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Lol… it’s Monday. You are worse than me lol

Expand  

He's right.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 1/3/2022 at 1:06 PM, Baroclinic Zone said:

He's right.

Expand  

Lots of spread with 5 days to go… gfs is basically a whiff. It may end up like crap, but it’s early.

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/3/2022 at 1:06 PM, Baroclinic Zone said:

He's right.

Expand  

Nah just my guess. Anyways something to track. 

[MarkO]

Not sure if this has been brought up, but can't believe the number of schools closed or on delay this AM. I think it's more of "we need one more vacation day".