Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, 78Blizzard said:

18z GFS still a whiff but improved from 12z.

Gefs is much better

[Ginx snewx]

31 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said:

Time to start a winter 2022-23 thread?

Ray's on it

[moneypitmike]

Does anyone have access to the 18z EC? 

[dryslot]

26 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Does anyone have access to the 18z EC? 

Yes

[Sey-Mour Snow]

32 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Does anyone have access to the 18z EC? 

What do you want to know it doesn’t go out far enough for Friday’s storm 

[IowaStorm05]

So. For tomorrows storm, it is my understanding that NOW it is just too late to get a jump north by 40 miles? 

What about in 2007? Was the tech really any worse off back then?

As recently as 2016 I recall discussions on the eve before snowstorms coming to IA that there was an uncertainty margin of about 25 miles when you’re 12 to 24 hours from the event.

[moneypitmike]

15 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

What do you want to know it doesn’t go out far enough for Friday’s storm 

Really?  Learn something new every day.  (and yet we've had a thread for 3 days already). 

 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

Really?  Learn something new every day. 

Only goes out to hr 90.

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said:

So. For tomorrows storm, it is my understanding that NOW it is just too late to get a jump north by 40 miles? 

What about in 2007? Was the tech really any worse off back then?

As recently as 2016 I recall discussions on the eve before snowstorms coming to IA that there was an uncertainty margin of about 25 miles when you’re 12 to 24 hours from the event.

Of course it could be just as likely to jump 40 miles south.

[IowaStorm05]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Of course it could be just as likely to jump 40 miles south.

Well, yes. But I’m trying to focus on the statistics of such a deviation whether south or north, inside 24 hours advance notice.

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, IowaStorm05 said:

Well, yes. But I’m trying to focus on the statistics of such a deviation whether south or north, inside 24 hours advance notice.

Wrong thread.

 

EPS is less tucked at 18z

[powderfreak]

DIT is closer to being right at 18z than he was at 12z.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Ray's on it

Lol I am excited about it.

[IowaStorm05]

19 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Wrong thread.

 

EPS is less tucked at 18z

Sorry it doesn’t specify which system it’s talking about. I didn’t know.

[dryslot]

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Much better look than 12z for here

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah this is why I was laughing at the microanalysis of the 12z EPS. It took 6 hours to look different.

[PhineasC]

Shifting SE every 6 hours. I'll be fringed by tomorrow afternoon and then will need to wait to see if it comes back.

Very hard to get a low to just climb into the GOM it seems. They either head to the Lakes or get shredded and shunted to the south.

[powderfreak]

18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah this is why I was laughing at the microanalysis of the 12z EPS. It took 6 hours to look different.

It’s so far out in time.  Models extrapolating current conditions every 6 hours… Dryslot has said it, but wait till Wednesday night, who knows what we see by then.  Precip would move in early Friday AM, that’s an eternity.

[78Blizzard]

11 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It’s so far out in time.  Models extrapolating current conditions every 6 hours… Dryslot has said it, but wait till Wednesday night, who knows what we see by then.  Precip would move in early Friday AM, that’s an eternity.

That is our lot here when it comes to snowstorms.  But a cutter bringing a rainer... a model 8-9 days out is golden most of the time, lol.

[tavwtby]

9 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

That is our lot here when it comes to snowstorms.  But a cutter bringing a rainer... a model 8-9 days out is golden most of the time, lol.

yeah, this does seem to be the case, models nail the cutters, but swing and miss on coastals, but this ones been there for a bit now and the pattern shuffle and now some real cold moving in seems like more a possibility than most recent ones.

[Ginx snewx]

38 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It’s so far out in time.  Models extrapolating current conditions every 6 hours… Dryslot has said it, but wait till Wednesday night, who knows what we see by then.  Precip would move in early Friday AM, that’s an eternity.

It's why I laugh at storm threads a week in advance 

[mahk_webstah]

15 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

yeah, this does seem to be the case, models nail the cutters, but swing and miss on coastals, but this ones been there for a bit now and the pattern shuffle and now some real cold moving in seems like more a possibility than most recent ones.

well a cutter can have a 750 mile swing and still be a cutter, so we don't notice the shifts.  But a coastal has like 200 miles to work with and we fight and cry and celebrate over a 10 mile shift, so...

[tavwtby]

3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

well a cutter can have a 750 mile swing and still be a cutter, so we don't notice the shifts.  But a coastal has like 200 miles to work with and we fight and cry and celebrate over a 10 mile shift, so...

this is true

[HIPPYVALLEY]

5 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

well a cutter can have a 750 mile swing and still be a cutter, so we don't notice the shifts.  But a coastal has like 200 miles to work with and we fight and cry and celebrate over a 10 mile shift, so...

I would even go so far as to set those ratios at a cutter has 1000 miles and a coastal  has about 100 miles of play.  

[ROOSTA]

NEXT 48hrs
HRRR is shifting a bit further N. A butterfly fart "could, might, possibly" bring accumulating snow into coastal CT most of RI and E. MA.

[dendrite]

52 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It’s so far out in time.  Models extrapolating current conditions every 6 hours… Dryslot has said it, but wait till Wednesday night, who knows what we see by then.  Precip would move in early Friday AM, that’s an eternity.

I feel more alive living and dying by model runs every 6 hours.

[MJO812]

Gfs is still ots

[78Blizzard]

GFS still a whiff.

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs is still ots

 

5 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

GFS still a whiff.

Probably a good thing at 5 days out.