Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[mahk_webstah]

  On 1/2/2022 at 7:43 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

NNE shook 

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There’s as much clustering on the bench mark as there are hairs on the top your head

[Baroclinic Zone]

  On 1/2/2022 at 7:55 PM, dryslot said:

 

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lol, that clustering is no where close to the BM.

[Typhoon Tip]

Holy Schitchel !

He/she used to be one of my favorite mid rangers down in NCEP .... 

"..Arctic air will dig across the central then eastern U.S. behind the windy and precipitation focusing low to include a threat of plowable snow from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley to the Northeast. Another quickly developing heavy snow/ice threat with some aforementioned uncertainty is on tap underneath Thu into Fri from the TN/OH Valleys through the Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast by frontal low/coastal storm genesis..."

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

That cluster would take the low probably right over Boston. The only saving grace on the mean is those far east outliers.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/2/2022 at 7:58 PM, Baroclinic Zone said:

lol, that clustering is no where close to the BM.

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I count one member of 51 near BM, everything else inside. 

[Ginx snewx]

One should say the EPS mean. 51 members and the solutions are all over the board

[HoarfrostHubb]

  On 1/2/2022 at 8:03 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I count one member of 51 near BM, everything else inside. 

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The IPAs are producing a BM in his shorts

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/2/2022 at 8:05 PM, HoarfrostHubb said:

The IPAs are producing a BM in his shorts

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Bowel Mark?

[CoastalWx]

Regardless, a strong signal for something. All you can say.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/2/2022 at 8:04 PM, Ginx snewx said:

One should say the EPS mean. 51 members and the solutions are all over the board

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They’re so shook 

[OceanStWx]

  On 1/2/2022 at 8:05 PM, HoarfrostHubb said:

The IPAs are producing a BM in his shorts

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Gotta watch those ones brewed with lactose.

[moneypitmike]

  On 1/2/2022 at 7:55 PM, dryslot said:

 

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Thanks.  That's quite a few hanging in NYS and west.  Hoping we see that change.

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/2/2022 at 8:09 PM, moneypitmike said:

Thanks.  That's quite a few hanging in NYS and west.  Hoping we see that change.

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Those are primary lows in NY state. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

  On 1/2/2022 at 8:08 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

They’re so shook 

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Some would rather be shook than what your coping mechanism is.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/2/2022 at 8:10 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Those are primary lows in NY state. 

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I don't like the more assertive primary. 

[dryslot]

  On 1/2/2022 at 8:09 PM, moneypitmike said:

Thanks.  That's quite a few hanging in NYS and west.  Hoping we see that change.

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I could see that chart on my end, I had to save it then post it.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 1/2/2022 at 8:11 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't like the more assertive primary. 

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I’m sure that’ll hold on for dear life after every other system has been shredded 

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/2/2022 at 8:11 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't like the more assertive primary. 

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It’s kind of weird that most OP runs don’t really have a primary up there but several ensemble members do. I’m not super worried about it at this point though. 
 

I can tell people are losing their minds when we’re analyzing the EPS individual members this much at 5 days out when it will probably look vastly different in a couple cycles. 

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/2/2022 at 8:14 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’m sure that’ll hold on for dear life after every other system has been shredded 

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Not in the mid Atlantic.  

[PhineasC]

  On 1/2/2022 at 8:14 PM, ORH_wxman said:

It’s kind of weird that most OP runs don’t really have a primary up there but several ensemble members do. I’m not super worried about it at this point though. 
 

I can tell people are losing their minds when we’re analyzing the EPS individual members this much at 5 days out when it will probably look vastly different in a couple cycles. 

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Red flag that the GEFS totally lost it?

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/2/2022 at 8:16 PM, PhineasC said:

Red flag that the GEFS totally lost it?

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It’s prob a red flag in the sense that something super amped up the Hudson valley is pretty unlikely. EPS are pretty far west compared to other ensemble suites too. So while I’d weight the EPS the highest, I would still add a little bit of weight to the others. 

[OceanStWx]

  On 1/2/2022 at 8:16 PM, PhineasC said:

Red flag that the GEFS totally lost it?

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GEFS are a bit underdispersive, meaning the ensemble will tend to move as one too often. Ideally you would have a lot of different solutions and the ensemble spread would include the correct one. 

So if the op loses it, I'm not surprised when the GEFS does too.

[78Blizzard]

  On 1/2/2022 at 8:14 PM, ORH_wxman said:

It’s kind of weird that most OP runs don’t really have a primary up there but several ensemble members do. I’m not super worried about it at this point though. 
 

I can tell people are losing their minds when we’re analyzing the EPS individual members this much at 5 days out when it will probably look vastly different in a couple cycles. 

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From what I can see, the EPS is the only model with quite a few members having a primary in the eastern lakes region, so wouldn't that tend to pull the mean to the west?

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 1/2/2022 at 8:23 PM, OceanStWx said:

GEFS are a bit underdispersive, meaning the ensemble will tend to move as one too often. Ideally you would have a lot of different solutions and the ensemble spread would include the correct one. 

So if the op loses it, I'm not surprised when the GEFS does too.

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Heh... I always thought that description best fit the EPS...  which it may - just sayn'

I've often found that if the operational run "looks" more(less) favorable, the EPS mean does too, in the relative scope.

[OceanStWx]

  On 1/2/2022 at 8:45 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

Heh... I always thought that description best fit the EPS...  which it may - just sayn'

I've often found that if the operational run "looks" more(less) favorable, the EPS mean does too, in the relative scope.

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They are underdispersive too, which is one of the reasons why they are upgrading to 100 members soon.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 1/2/2022 at 8:45 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

Heh... I always thought that description best fit the EPS...  which it may - just sayn'

I've often found that if the operational run "looks" more(less) favorable, the EPS mean does too, in the relative scope.

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Yup,  the eps has shifted to crap many times at this time frame and it didn’t take days to do . *None of the models have a ensemble suite that remotely accounts for future goal posts at 4-5 day’s out. *

so we just want to see multi model support and not lose that regardless of EPs 

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 1/2/2022 at 8:47 PM, OceanStWx said:

They are underdispersive too, which is one of the reasons why they are upgrading to 100 members soon.

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Ha hahaha... no schnikies -

I mean it'd take two shifts to analyze the whole set  - you think you'll population the dbs and make ur AFDs in time. 

[78Blizzard]

18z GFS still a whiff but improved from 12z.

[J Paul Gordon]

Time to start a winter 2022-23 thread?

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/2/2022 at 11:08 PM, J Paul Gordon said:

Time to start a winter 2022-23 thread?

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