Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[dryslot]

Just now, dendrite said:

Barnstable Mass?

I'm not sure what he is even looking at.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Barnstable Mass?

You do see the clustering near 40/70 ?

[dendrite]

Just now, dryslot said:

I'm not sure what he is even looking at.

He’s just frantically tapping the keyboard right now. Hate to see it this far out. More invested than pickles in the dow. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

17 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

There are worse means for much of the forum.

 

 

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You do see the clustering near 40/70 ?

Mean.  Not clustering.  It'd have to track West from the BM to get to this position.  

[Typhoon Tip]

26 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Could the unexpected intensity and location of today’s storm have an affect on the ultimate path of the next one?

That's a complex answer. Lol... ( hey, consider who you're asking )  Short answer, I don't believe so.

Long answer:  Personally... that phenomenon you mention, I've often had 'chicken vs egg' problems with that.  I think that perception has that the wrong direction.  Basically, change was already taking place, if perhaps "intangibly," before it manifests on charts.  Then, a storm event materializes because of and sometimes on top of the emergence threshold of the pattern modality.  Here's the thing, because it wasn't coherently seen, that gives the illusion that the storm- event was the cause...  It's really the other way around.  

So if you can figure out how to parse that paragraph of conceptual jargon out, and formulate an impression of what I'm trying to say, I'd be very proud of you... 

In this case, The governing mechanics of the Jan 7 system is entering the hemisphere during a pretty significant whole-scale reshuffling of the pattern.  Really...from well west of the Date Line and the plastic island of the bounding Pac, ...all the way around to Greenland,  today vs the 300 hour range end up bearing much less comparative likeness. 

That really begins to occur from Wed ...Thursday on, within which this Jan 7 deal plays its cards and quite likely gets a physical enhancement, too.

"What ever happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas"   ... On the other side of that Wed/Thu pattern boundary/reshuffle, think 'removing the memory' of the previous regime.  

 

[weathafella]

Why are we fighting over an ensemble position 5 days out?   Don’t you think +/- 150 miles is still on the table?

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, weathafella said:

Why are we fighting over an ensemble position 5 days out?   Don’t you think +/- 150 miles is still on the table?

Yup. No clue what Dendy is even talking about 

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Why are we fighting over an ensemble position 5 days out?   Don’t you think +/- 150 miles is still on the table?

Why post BS and not be called out on it?

[Baroclinic Zone]

Geography fail and modeling hallucinations in full effect for something a week away,  Hate to see it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

24 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

There are worse means for much of the forum.

 

Yea, I'll take it...I'd rather contend with a precip type issue threat than a subsidence risk.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Why post BS and not be called out on it?

There is clustering on The BM . You’re blind or drunk or perhaps both 

[PhineasC]

We all know deep down you guys are worried this will track right over SNE. LOL

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, PhineasC said:

We all know deep down you guys are worried this will track right over SNE. LOL

I want it to.  Just to see the melts.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

We all know deep down you guys are worried this will track right over SNE. LOL

Totally.

[dryslot]

The bench mark is now 40/72

[Damage In Tolland]

NNE shook 

[SouthCoastMA]

5 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

We all know deep down you guys are worried this will track right over SNE. LOL

Panic stricken, like a crack addict who dropped his bag down the sewer drain

[78Blizzard]

Given the way this season has gone thus far, we will probably get a solution that few on this board will be happy with.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Seems like the EPS tracks the low near scooter

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Seems like the EPS tracks the low near scooter

Hopefully goes into BDR.

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Seems like the EPS tracks the low near scooter

It's the repositioned BM.

[moneypitmike]

10 minutes ago, dryslot said:

The bench mark is now 40/72

Your link isn't working.

[moneypitmike]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Seems like the EPS tracks the low near scooter

Scott is the benchmark for all things holy.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hopefully goes into BDR.

I feel like I have next to zero shot of getting the deformation this far se, so I am all in on getting the cf inland enough to keep a relatively high floor should precip type issues remain largely se.

[ORH_wxman]

There’s actually more spread on the EPS than the 06z run just eyeballing it. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, moneypitmike said:

Scott is the benchmark for all things holy.

Those days are gone.

[moneypitmike]

19 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Why are we fighting over an ensemble position 5 days out?   Don’t you think +/- 150 miles is still on the table?

Because it's 46* on January 2nd, cloudy and misty for how many days in a row, and the ground is muddy and brown.  In short, there's nothing better to do.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

There’s actually more spread on the EPS than the 06z run just eyeballing it. 

Yea, things won't be really ironed out til 12z Wed.

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Your link isn't working.

 

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There’s actually more spread on the EPS than the 06z run just eyeballing it. 

Stronger primary as well