Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[Typhoon Tip]

Oh... I know ( or 'think' I do - ) what happened.

The American model products don't correct ( don't think nearly to the scale or degree that the foreign clusters do ) for input garbage.  This smacks pretty loudly as the GEFs 'AI' gulping in back-wash initialization - it's sacked the whole ensemble mean too deeply and pervasively for me to believe this was organic.

I bet the Euro negated faulty inputs. 

That said, I do think there is going to be some uncertainty wrt to the SPV spit over the NE Pac, and how much gets inserted downs stream. And if/should the ridge bulge in the back side, that ups the ante -

[78Blizzard]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Oh... I know ( or 'think' I do - ) what happened.

The American model products don't correct ( don't think nearly to the scale or degree that the foreign clusters do ) for input garbage.  This smacks pretty loudly as the GEFs 'AI' gulping in back initialization - it's sacked the whole ensemble mean too deeply and pervasively for me to believe this was organic.

I bet the Euro negated faulty inputs. 

That said, I do think there is going to be some uncertainty wrt to the SPV spit over the NE Pac, and how much gets inserted downs stream. And if/should the ridge bulge in the back side, that ups the ante -

So are we saying that the recently updated GFS model is still garbage, lol?

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Yeah, To bad its not weds, This would be a nice lock.

Lol... dude we get it.  

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Euro would probably barely mix here, if at all 

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Euro would probably barely mix here, if at all 

You must be looking at some other model run.  The Euro and all other models suck here, except for the Ukie.

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

So are we saying that the recently updated GFS model is still garbage, lol?

Ha!   ... uh, I dunno 'bout that.

It's more like the population of the initialization grid.  There used to exist this "model diagnostic discussion," back when it was carried under the NCEP banner.  But then it became WPC ... etc, and I don't think it's covered there?  But they would flag this in discussion and surmise how it may/or not have effected the model processing.

Now would be a good time for that -

[Hoth]

GFS has always sucked with nor'easters. I don't know if the update has resolved that though.

[PhineasC]

Nice run but it did shift SE. Worlds apart from the GFS op still.

[dendrite]

19 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Euro would probably barely mix here, if at all 

All rain?

[moneypitmike]

Wide right on the GEFS as well.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Shift SE has begun . Hate to see it 

I like the tease tomorrow, we were getting lulled Into complacency , now at least we can get a pulse from missing out  

 

[mahk_webstah]

24 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ha!   ... uh, I dunno 'bout that.

It's more like the population of the initialization grid.  There used to exist this "model diagnostic discussion," back when it was carried under the NCEP banner.  But then it became WPC ... etc, and I don't think it's covered there?  But they would flag this in discussion and surmise how it may/or not have effected the model processing.

Now would be a good time for that -

Could the unexpected intensity and location of today’s storm have an affect on the ultimate path of the next one?

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Could the unexpected intensity and location of today’s storm have an affect on the ultimate path of the next one?

I think there’s too much distance between the events.   I think the idea of a hugger is more viable than ots at this point.

[CoastalWx]

EPS are pretty tucky.

[CoastalWx]

27 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

You must be looking at some other model run.  The Euro and all other models suck here, except for the Ukie.

Yeah he’d mix for sure. 

[mahk_webstah]

Just now, weathafella said:

I think there’s too much distance between the events.   I think the idea of a hugger is more viable than it’s at this point.

Without any blocking or something to shunt it out to see one would think so. But panics driven by shifts of models five days out are fairly common even with someone as old as me.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS are pretty tucky.

Very

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS are pretty tucky.

There are worse means for much of the forum.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

BM

[78Blizzard]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

There are worse means for much of the forum.

 

Not much different placement from where the op had it.

[moneypitmike]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Very

Jeff--do you have an image you're allowed to share?

[moneypitmike]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

BM

doo-doo?

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Jeff--do you have an image you're allowed to share?

Like?

[Baroclinic Zone]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

BM

A turd for sure

[PhineasC]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS are pretty tucky.

Nice! Ride it right over E Mass. 

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

A turd for sure

Mean is on the  BM and moves it ENE from there 

[dryslot]

lol

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Mean is on the  BM and moves it ENE from there 

Barnstable Mass?

[Baroclinic Zone]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Mean is on the  BM and moves it ENE from there 

If BM stands for Bourne/Mashpee, than you'd be correct.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, dendrite said:

Barnstable Mass?

dammnit, ninja'd