Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[mahk_webstah]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

BM track seeming most likely 

probably more elbow or canal given the lack of blocking to the north

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Let’s see how fast the best model can go from acting like it has a handle on a system to schitting itself . Meaning all Track options on table , don’t get sucked in quite so fast. We pray 

This thing is still 5 days out. Getting closer to more trust-worthy model lead time but I’d really wait another 2-3 cycles before getting confident. 

[tavwtby]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

BM track seeming most likely 

pick somewhere in the middle, and we all enjoy the fun somewhat... I'm not wholely bought in until Wednesday, but I believe this one has the most going for it than the others, and for some time now it's been a sig, so we do pray... Will, are we looking at a phase cutoff here or Nrn or srn dominant? hard to tell at this point...

[Hoth]

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I’m not buying snow until I see the whites of its eyes. This could easily rain.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, tavwtby said:

pick somewhere in the middle, and we all enjoy the fun somewhat... I'm not wholely bought in until Wednesday, but I believe this one has the most going for it than the others, and for some time now it's been a sig, so we do pray... Will, are we looking at a phase cutoff here or Nrn or srn dominant? hard to tell at this point...

It’s all northern stream. We also don’t have a big western ridge yet when this storm happens so the flow is going to be pretty progressive…which will be competing with no downstream blocking. It will be a fast mover it looks like. 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’m not buying snow until I see the whites of its eyes. This could easily rain.

I’ve been looking beyond that. That hasn’t changed. If next weekend works out,  great. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I’ve been looking beyond that. That hasn’t changed. If next weekend works out,  great. 

fyi, you did day that about the post-Christmas period. 

[Damage In Tolland]

13 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

probably more elbow or canal given the lack of blocking to the north

Probably not 

[dryslot]

Mentioned about the speed yesterday, Going to limit big totals, Right now i would favor a just inside the BM track just looking at everything

[dryslot]

Weaker tracks east, Stronger will track more west, No rocket science here.

[Damage In Tolland]

Timing sped up . Looks like a Thursday nite into early Friday deal 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

fyi, you did day that about the post-Christmas period. 

Yeah that didn’t happen. But at least after next weekend (specifically 10th on) looks to have legs. This next storm could be meh so I’m not invested at the moment. 

[tavwtby]

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s all northern stream. We also don’t have a big western ridge yet when this storm happens so the flow is going to be pretty progressive…which will be competing with no downstream blocking. It will be a fast mover it looks like. 

Thanks, what I figured, seems to be a running theme with storms here lately, minus a few that were slow, cutoff, retrograde storms, it seems most out coastal storms are like 12 hr blitz types.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah that didn’t happen. But at least after next weekend (specifically 10th on) looks to have legs. This next storm could be meh so I’m not invested at the moment. 

Yeah regardless of 1/7, the pattern legit looks deep winter after that. Obviously getting a good system on 1/7 first is optimal, but it’s hard to see how we don’t get a lot of good chances beyond that unless guidance is clueless. 

[moneypitmike]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah regardless of 1/7, the pattern legit looks deep winter after that. Obviously getting a good system on 1/7 first is optimal, but it’s hard to see how we don’t get a lot of good chances beyond that unless guidance is clueless. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah regardless of 1/7, the pattern legit looks deep winter after that. Obviously getting a good system on 1/7 first is optimal, but it’s hard to see how we don’t get a lot of good chances beyond that unless guidance is clueless. 

Where have we seen this before?  Hint, it was a month ago.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Where have we seen this before?  Hint, it was a month ago.

Totally different pattern though. Not really analogous except in the loose sense that guidance could be wrong on the setup…but with a huge western ridge, it’s pretty unlikely we end up warm….unlike the extremely deep RNA trough where we ended up mostly on the wrong side of the gradient plus all those systems getting shredded during the times we were cold enough for snow. 

[ROOSTA]

It's a step to "normal" and something to track.
Record High temps down here...snooze.
Expect changes run to run, I refuse to fall into the trap of predicting on a meso scale until it's actually snowing up there with greater model agreement. 
 

[Cold Miser]

10 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

RATIOS HAVE LITTLE TO DO WITH TEMPS. 

Ray, help a dumb weenie out with this.  I always thought that there was an element of temps involved in ratio calculations?

https://www.weather.gov/arx/why_snowratios

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

24 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah regardless of 1/7, the pattern legit looks deep winter after that. Obviously getting a good system on 1/7 first is optimal, but it’s hard to see how we don’t get a lot of good chances beyond that unless guidance is clueless. 

Really? I thought it Looks like poo second half of month and into Feb. Back to -pna with a se ridge without atl blocking. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Ray, help a dumb weenie out with this.  I always thought that there was an element of temps involved in ratio calculations?

https://www.weather.gov/arx/why_snowratios

My guess is that is why he says little as opposed to nothing 

[dryslot]

GFS is a nothing burger.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

GFS is a nothing burger.

That’s barely even a low…lol. Thankfully it’s been an outlier. 

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That’s barely even a low…lol. Thankfully it’s been an outlier. 

Was it even a FROPA?  

[Baroclinic Zone]

39 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Totally different pattern though. Not really analogous except in the loose sense that guidance could be wrong on the setup…but with a huge western ridge, it’s pretty unlikely we end up warm….unlike the extremely deep RNA trough where we ended up mostly on the wrong side of the gradient plus all those systems getting shredded during the times we were cold enough for snow. 

Sure, it's a different setup.  But models were brutally bad at predicting the pattern with the RNA.  They kept trying to break it down too fast, meanwhile the RNA got stronger.  Hopefully this is a more predictable/stable pattern but that remains to be seen and I'm skeptical until the results are within realty range.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Sure, it's a different setup.  But models were brutally bad at predicting the pattern with the RNA.  They kept trying to break it down too fast, meanwhile the RNA got stronger.  Hopefully this is a more predictable/stable pattern but that remains to be seen and I'm skeptical until the results are within realty range.

The RNA was always predicted, it just ended up a lot deeper than originally forecast. This one could fail too but it would probably take a larger model error because there’s more wiggle room when you have a western ridge. 

[cleetussnow]

Cut on the GFS post 1/7 deal.  No block.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Nothing on 1/7, but it does have a cutter for your pleasure for the system after.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Pretty much totally gone on GEFS