Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[weathafella]

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It’s like 4-8” for most. Nice… but not sure I’d go “big” pretty progressive 

1-3 is big these days.  But that's an inch of qpf over the 6 hour period from 6-12z at the height so that ain't hay!

[weathafella]

8 minutes ago, George001 said:

The Canadian and gfs look to have switched places. Canadian whiffed and gfs was a big storm at 12z and now it’s the other way around. In my eyes that is a step in the right direction, I love to see the Canadian on board. One step close to having the entire big 3 (Euro, Canadian, Navy) on board.

SMH violently....

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

SMH violently....

Agree.  He’s toast…lol

 

The Navy?  He’s delusional!

[George001]

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It’s like 4-8” for most. Nice… but not sure I’d go “big” pretty progressive 

True, but the upper levels are frigid and the surface temps are mid 20s during the height of the storm. I would think ratios would be more like 15:1 or even 20:1 in some areas, that would increase the range to like 6-12 in areas getting 15:1 and areas getting 20:1 (likely north and west) would be 8-16. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, George001 said:

True, but the upper levels are frigid and the surface temps are mid 20s during the height of the storm. I would think ratios would be more like 15:1 or even 20:1 in some areas, that would increase the range to like 6-12 in areas getting 15:1 and areas getting 20:1 (likely north and west) would be 8-16. 

RATIOS HAVE LITTLE TO DO WITH TEMPS. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

At this range, just assume 10:1, buts once within a day or two, check to see if max lift is centered in the 12-18c snow growth zone, which will ideally be around H7 and fully saturated.

[40/70 Benchmark]

27 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It’s like 4-8” for most. Nice… but not sure I’d go “big” pretty progressive 

How many times are we going to go through this? The vast majority of death bands occur in "progressive" systems...not the decaying carcuses that rot in place. This could have alot going for it in that respect, but I would like to get a better idea of antecedent airmass. Not to sound like George, but there is alot of latent baroclinic energy offshore right now. 

[weathafella]

Euro not printing out on SV

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Euro not printing out on SV

It's more huggy.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Euro is mainly rain for Boston,  gives me a few inches.

[weathafella]

23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Euro is mainly rain for Boston,  gives me a few inches.

Actually per snow Algo even on the stingiest it’s better than you depict.  I’m ok with it at this point in time.  I think Narcan has 3.4 for BOS which should be more for you and even me.  But at this time frame I’m happy it’s an event.

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Actually per snow Algo even on the stingiest it’s better than you depict.  I’m ok with it at this point in time.  I think Narcan has 3.4 for BOS which should be more for you and even me.  But at this time frame I’m happy it’s an event.

Yea, not worried about it. I was looking at kuchera map that someone posted, which can be stingy in marginal setups, but it's actually about 8" here. 4-5"ish for you.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Looks to me like this is all N stream, which is perfectly fine by me....its actually amplifying on approach for once. Northeast may be best here, as it tries to close off over head.

00z Wed should largely tell the tale, as that is when the  energy comes ashore.....def by 12z Wednesday.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Trend from 12z was slightly more robust with that energy, so it a bit further north and faster developing.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Despite what the snow maps say, I would actually prefer the 00z run.....the CF would get nearby and without that, I am depending on deformation and I think that will miss north.

Getting way ahead, but I'll take the lower ceiling/higher floor of having this track closer and not getting into that subby zone. I live in an area that is very prone to subsidence in the absence of mid level deformation bc I am often just far enough from the low level forcing near the shore.

[weathafella]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Despite what the snow maps say, I would actually prefer the 00z run.....the CF would get nearby bc without that, I am depending on deformation and I think that will miss north.

Yeah the 0C line gets to just south of the Pike before retreating.  But 5 days out a lot of changes can happen.  UKMET/CMC were nice hits.  We have reasonable consensus on plowable snow.  Time to charge up the snow blower batteries....

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Yeah the 0C line gets to just south of the Pike before retreating.  But 5 days out a lot of changes can happen.  UKMET/CMC were nice hits.  We have reasonable consensus on plowable snow.  Time to charge up the snow blower batteries....

Yea, I'm just speaking in hypotheticals...obviously not literally talking mesoscale on a day 5 map.

[The 4 Seasons]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

How many times are we going to go through this? The vast majority of death bands occur in "progressive" systems...not the decaying carcuses that rot in place. This could have alot going for it in that respect, but I would like to get a better idea of antecedent airmass. Not to sound like George, but there will be a blizzard with 2-3 feet with lollis to 4 feet for all of E MA.

Ok. George.

[dryslot]

To early to talk about details for the 7th, Check back in Weds.

[mahk_webstah]

I'm happy to see the slight trend s and e because this may come west some as it gets closer, sort of like today

[moneypitmike]

There is an unbelievable number of squirrels running around.  Can Jerry chime in and say what active squirrels on January 2 portend for the rest of the winter? 

[UnitedWx]

48 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

There is an unbelievable number of squirrels running around.  Can Jerry chime in and say what active squirrels on January 2 portend for the rest of the winter? 

Definitely something that needs to be discussed before the sun angle talk starts

[Hoth]

1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:

There is an unbelievable number of squirrels running around.  Can Jerry chime in and say what active squirrels on January 2 portend for the rest of the winter? 

I've been seeing rabbits in my yard. I don't recall that before in January.

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

Just now, Hoth said:

I've been seeing rabbits in my yard. I don't recall that before in January.

But are they obese? Lol

[Hoth]

1 minute ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

But are they obese? Lol

Yes, they've developed a taste for meat.

[ORH_wxman]

06z EPS members…still decent spread but tightening up compared to yesterday

 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

06z EPS members…still decent spread but tightening up compared to yesterday

 

More just off shore than inland…

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

06z EPS members…still decent spread but tightening up compared to yesterday

 

BM track seeming most likely 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

BM track seeming most likely 

There’s definitely a nice cluster near the BM but there’s definitely another set of lows that hug a bit more between NYC and BOS. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Let’s see how fast the best model can go from acting like it has a handle on a system to schitting itself . Meaning all Track options on table , don’t get sucked in quite so fast. We pray