Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[dryslot]

18z GEFS, Lot of west amped members in here but a lot of spread to boot as well.

[Go Kart Mozart]

  On 1/1/2022 at 11:13 PM, dryslot said:

18z GEFS, Lot of west amped members in here but a lot of spread to boot as well.

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That 969 just east of ACK looks good to me.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/1/2022 at 11:09 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Read it wrong but that's some asute deep thinking Ray. 

 

 

 

Woah never knew

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All I mean is that the NAO block is gone, so it's still possible to get porked....but progressive flow mitigates that risk to a degree.

[dryslot]

  On 1/1/2022 at 11:16 PM, Go Kart Mozart said:

That 969 just east of ACK looks good to me.

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Sign me up for that one.

[dryslot]

Nothing to slow this one down either so high totals will have a limit.

[PhineasC]

  On 1/1/2022 at 11:13 PM, dryslot said:

18z GEFS, Lot of west amped members in here but a lot of spread to boot as well.

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West amped is good.   

[ineedsnow]

  On 1/1/2022 at 11:13 PM, dryslot said:

18z GEFS, Lot of west amped members in here but a lot of spread to boot as well.

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I'll take the 969mb just east of the cape

[George001]

  On 1/1/2022 at 11:18 PM, dryslot said:

Nothing to slow this one down either so high totals will have a limit.

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Eh, while this won’t be a blizzard of 78 redux or anything crazy like that, it could still be a really big storm. In my area I’m more worried about getting screwed by ptype than the pattern being too progressive and quick moving. Even a 10-12 hour quick moving bomb can easily produce over a foot. If the low gets down to the 970s or 960s like some of the ensembles are hinting at, areas that stay all snow could possibly even approach or exceed 2 feet. The pattern was fairly progressive in Feb 2015, didnt stop my area from getting 3 storms with 12+ inches of snow and blizzard conditions.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 1/1/2022 at 11:13 PM, dryslot said:

18z GEFS, Lot of west amped members in here but a lot of spread to boot as well.

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I’ll take my chances with amped. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 1/1/2022 at 11:18 PM, dryslot said:

Nothing to slow this one down either so high totals will have a limit.

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Weenies will weenie out regardless.   Set the limit at jacks of 10” but weenie goggles will buy into the run to run 18” Kuchera nocturnal emissions. 

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/1/2022 at 11:12 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't care what you call RNA.

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What does your R stand for? R for Ray ?

 

Secondary question .. do you call the inverse  + RNA? 

[Ginx snewx]

  On 1/1/2022 at 11:41 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

What does your R stand for? R for Ray ?

 

Secondary question .. do you call the inverse  + RNA? 

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Wasn't there a poster by the name of RNA at Eastern

[dendrite]

  On 1/1/2022 at 11:41 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

What does your R stand for? R for Ray ?

 

Secondary question .. do you call the inverse  + RNA? 

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Old terminology was PNA and RNA.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/1/2022 at 11:47 PM, dendrite said:

Old terminology was PNA and RNA.

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But what did the antiquated R stand for ? 

[dendrite]

  On 1/2/2022 at 12:00 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

But what did the antiquated R stand for ? 

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Reverse

Here’s a journal article with it.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/downloadpdf/journals/clim/12/6/1520-0442_1999_012_1796_lswral_2.0.co_2.pdf

[Typhoon Tip]

Not to turn on the d-drip and walk away but ... just got around to looking over some of those individual 12z GEF members. 

HUGEly improved consensus over 00z for one just in general.  But, 10 or so individual members have very large snow ( yes SNOW!) totals falling in a short period of time between 144 and 156/168 hours.  The storm is moving right along, but in those members, it appears enough anyway. They cross the bomb threshold, ... large QPF totals on the west side of neg tilted trough/wind max along ideal trajectory; riding up immediate astride NJ-MA. There is probably has excessive frontogen UVM banding in the I-95 collocation...  probably why they are turning the moisture upside down.

I mean ... not to get into details.  LOL

No but it is a lot of fun to see this cinema... I give you that.  It's been a while since we could enjoy a good game of speculation pong

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/2/2022 at 12:01 AM, dendrite said:

Reverse

Here’s a journal article with it.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/downloadpdf/journals/clim/12/6/1520-0442_1999_012_1796_lswral_2.0.co_2.pdf

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The scientific community calls it PNA though . As far as we know, they always have . It’s either a + or a - PNA in 1984-2022

[dendrite]

  On 1/2/2022 at 12:09 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

The scientific community calls it PNA though . As far as we know, they always have . It’s either a + or a - PNA in 1984-2022

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I just linked you a scientific article from 1998 referring to -PNA as RNA. But okay.

[Typhoon Tip]

This is just an arbitrary member .. but there a lot with this look -

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/2/2022 at 12:11 AM, dendrite said:

I just linked you a scientific article from 1998 referring to -PNA as RNA. But okay.

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Similar to a TT post …

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/1/2022 at 11:41 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

What does your R stand for? R for Ray ?

 

Secondary question .. do you call the inverse  + RNA? 

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Reverse. 

I didn't come up with it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/2/2022 at 12:06 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

Not to turn on the d-drip and walk away but ... just got around to looking over some of those individual 12z GEF members. 

HUGEly improved consensus over 00z for one just in general.  But, 10 or so individual members have very large snow ( yes SNOW!) totals falling in a short period of time between 144 and 156/168 hours.  The storm is moving right along, but in those members, it appears enough anyway. They cross the bomb threshold, ... large QPF totals on the west side of neg tilted trough/wind max along ideal trajectory; riding up immediate astride NJ-MA. There is probably has excessive frontogen UVM banding in the I-95 collocation...  probably why they are turning the moisture upside down.

I mean ... not to get into details.  LOL

No but it is a lot of fun to see this cinema... I give you that.  It's been a while since we could enjoy a good game of speculation pong

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Turn on the d drip and walk away lol

[tim123]

I will take the 975 over Vermont.

[Ginx snewx]

  On 1/2/2022 at 12:14 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

This is just an arbitrary member .. but there a lot with this look -

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[weathafella]

Some huggers/inland members of EPS but overall looks pretty solid for widespread good snows.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/1/2022 at 11:16 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

All I mean is that the NAO block is gone, so it's still possible to get porked....but progressive flow mitigates that risk to a degree.

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Thanks for stopping by -nao and being utterly useless. See ya in April…

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/2/2022 at 1:25 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Thanks for stopping by -nao and being utterly useless. See ya in April…

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I think we'll do okay. 

[MJO812]

  On 1/2/2022 at 1:29 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think we'll do okay. 

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Pna > nao

[weathafella]

  On 1/2/2022 at 1:31 AM, MJO812 said:

Pna > nao

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  On 1/2/2022 at 1:31 AM, MJO812 said:

Pna > nao

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Certainly not the case for YBY.  The idea is to time things right with transient blocking in the North Atlantic.  Ala 2014-15.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Its easy to shit on the NAO right now, but its misguided.....shit on the record RNA.