Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[Go Kart Mozart]

58 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

We take

Yup, that map is hard pore cornography!

[George001]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

12z Euro, Right over the elbow track.

Looks really good, I hope it’s right

[dryslot]

Just now, George001 said:

Looks really good, I hope it’s right

I think most here think that too.

[weathafella]

Maybe this will be like the old school euro-lock in d6....

[Sey-Mour Snow]

[Damage In Tolland]

I am feeling very naked about this one.

[Typhoon Tip]

Some quick observations I've made during the day ... 

The pattern reshuffle with a restructuring of the PNA relay into N/a is quite likely and legit. Entering into this new regime...  we kick things off, D6/7, with coastal.

1 ... yesterday I surmised the Archembault scenario pretty hard..  However, upon really focusing on the behavior of the individual GEF members ( because my life is so fulfilling and pithy in meaning, otherwise...) I don't get the sense that is what is happening over the course of the week ... leading any would-be event on D6/7.  It appears we merely have a well time, yet potent Pac injection of S/W mechanics, taking some advantage of the reduction in negative interference east of 100 W across the continent.   By the time this feature nears the lower OH Valley ..D5 or so... the ridge is essentially gone..."almost" but not quite down to the climate height signal over the TV.   Immediately aft of this S/W, there is modest albeit crucial .. ridge growth over the Rockies .. then nudging east, as a responses to the PNA forcing.

2 ... that ridge is key   ...I really think the biggest sensitivity for how the D6/7 evolves will come down to the handling of that aspect of the total L/W space.  If the ridge remains flattish... then we prooobably deal with more a NJ model detonation of sorts... If it ends up more amplified - which is a correction vector for such a steeply rising PNA index, btw ... - then we'll have to contend with future guidance trending slower and potentially deeper, with more actually H.A. look.  Such a system could even find its way toward the eastern Lakes, give to the lack of downstream exertion for having lost the western limb of the NAO.  In fact, the latter is positive by then.  

Those are my two main take aways for where things set up now.   Obviously...subject to change.  

...as an after ob/thought.. .that S/W is really is deceptively powerful.  It has jet max over 110 kts at 500, and nearing 150 kts at 300 mb ... as it is torpedoing over the MS Valley around 96 hours.  This intense jet core has been very consistent ... regardless of the total L/W amplitude and whether it gets any physical help that way.  Should the western ridge pop as a future correction in guidance, this thing could become a menace.  

 

 

 

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah that’s great looking. Sucks that it’s 6 days out still. I’d be getting pretty pumped if we were 84-96 hours instead

Anyways, here’s the individual plot members

 

I love how that has the look of one that comes fully up into and through the gulf of Maine

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I love how that has the look of one that comes fully up into and through the gulf of Maine

So don't i.

[mahk_webstah]

25 minutes ago, dryslot said:

So don't i.

Dryslut downslopingdeforms dendrite? DDDD

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

Dryslut downslopingdeforms dendrite? DDDD

That track will always produce here as long as there is cold air in place.

[40/70 Benchmark]

John, that is my concern....with the RNA goes the NAO, so it could end up fraught with precip type issues.

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

John, that is my concern....with the RNA goes the NAO, so it could end up fraught with precip type issues.

I don't think precip type issues is a concern. Amount of precip could be. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I don't think precip type issues is a concern. Amount of precip could be. 

I think he (Ray) is only talking about Jan 7.

[moneypitmike]

Could be a KU.  Or just another FU. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I think he (Ray) is only talking about Jan 7.

Exactly. Who cares about 5 day anomaly charts....I'll take great solace in a 32.00001 degree rain if I radiate to 14 the three days that follow.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Good to see 2 suites of ensembles with a similar idea... even though it is 6 days away.

I do think we will have temps where we want them, for the most part

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Good to see 2 suites of ensembles with a similar idea... even though it is 6 days away.

I do think we will have temps where we want them, for the most part

Def a better shot for a wintery outcome here, but it this amplifies enough, it will turn to rain and/or ice regardless of the antecedent airmass.

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Def a better shot for a wintery outcome here, but it this amplifies enough, it will turn to rain and/or ice regardless of the antecedent airmass.

Yep... don't want that to bend too much.

Still, lots of time to go to shit, or the other way.... whatever the opposite of shit is... Shinola?

[dryslot]

Only 6 days out, Sigh

[Damage In Tolland]

57 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

John, that is my concern....with the RNA goes the NAO, so it could end up fraught with precip type issues.

-PNA . We don’t calm it RNA 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

John, that is my concern....with the RNA goes the NAO, so it could end up fraught with precip type issues.

I here you!

But in all honesty .. my "menace" in the ending context there was for amplitude alone ...

I just don't have insight into ptype from this range - not that anyone cogent does... just sayn'

again, ...for the general reader, this is a higher confidence track-able aspect,alone.  We are prooobably 2 days from details in normalcy/model error climate if you will. 

The speed of the flow and the low arc height of the western ridge isn't helping matters, because for every radii we lose, we increase the dreaded needle thread aspect.  Thing is... you could just get incredibly fortunate ( notice I didn't say "lucky" hahaha ), and have the ridge go amp while nudging east.  You could successfully place a slowing bomb in just the right location by dart method

It's almost scary that the EPS and GEFs essentially have the placement - we wait on the bomb. It's got a lot of power man. wow. Really. In a corrective scope, you drive the ridge in the west with lowered static heights over Florida and that thing is a candidate for exception mid level depth near the Del Marva. 

[Typhoon Tip]

For entertainment only: 

... this is this thing's might without the western ridge kickback   As a result of this it is consequentially moving fast - which would limit some impacts if so. 

Real concern: But again.. I want see what the ridge does in the model runs about 48 hours from now. We have seen plenty times in the past, the Pac forcing adjust those bigger(smaller) in the boundary of the short and mid ranges.

[weathafella]

Pretty good consensus with our 2 main medium rangers

[Typhoon Tip]

or those savvy I'm actually curious what the 18z Euro suite signals out there near the edge

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Some quick observations I've made during the day ... 

The pattern reshuffle with a restructuring of the PNA relay into N/a is quite likely and legit. Entering into this new regime...  we kick things off, D6/7, with coastal.

1 ... yesterday I surmised the Archembault scenario pretty hard..  However, upon really focusing on the behavior of the individual GEF members ( because my life is so fulfilling and pithy in meaning, otherwise...) I don't get the sense that is what is happening over the course of the week ... leading any would-be event on D6/7.  It appears we merely have a well time, yet potent Pac injection of S/W mechanics, taking some advantage of the reduction in negative interference east of 100 W across the continent.   By the time this feature nears the lower OH Valley ..D5 or so... the ridge is essentially gone..."almost" but not quite down to the climate height signal over the TV.   Immediately aft of this S/W, there is modest albeit crucial .. ridge growth over the Rockies .. then nudging east, as a responses to the PNA forcing.

2 ... that ridge is key   ...I really think the biggest sensitivity for how the D6/7 evolves will come down to the handling of that aspect of the total L/W space.  If the ridge remains flattish... then we prooobably deal with more a NJ model detonation of sorts... If it ends up more amplified - which is a correction vector for such a steeply rising PNA index, btw ... - then we'll have to contend with future guidance trending slower and potentially deeper, with more actually H.A. look.  Such a system could even find its way toward the eastern Lakes, give to the lack of downstream exertion for having lost the western limb of the NAO.  In fact, the latter is positive by then.  

Those are my two main take aways for where things set up now.   Obviously...subject to change.  

...as an after ob/thought.. .that S/W is really is deceptively powerful.  It has jet max over 110 kts at 500, and nearing 150 kts at 300 mb ... as it is torpedoing over the MS Valley around 96 hours.  This intense jet core has been very consistent ... regardless of the total L/W amplitude and whether it gets any physical help that way.  Should the western ridge pop as a future correction in guidance, this thing could become a menace.  

 

 

 

Let’s cut it to Buffalo , looks like we rain Sunday  nite / Monday to Maine’s anyway

kidding, I’ll take the snowstorm but man this pattern with SE ridge and cutters to Detroit doesn’t seem to be gone of this snower occurs 

[moneypitmike]

Snowman better gas up for his trip to Brattleboro.

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Exactly. Who cares about 5 day anomaly charts....I'll take great solace in a 32.00001 degree rain if I radiate to 14 the three days that follow.

Read it wrong but that's some asute deep thinking Ray. 

 

1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I think he (Ray) is only talking about Jan 7.

 

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Exactly. Who cares about 5 day anomaly charts....I'll take great solace in a 32.00001 degree rain if I radiate to 14 the three days that follow.

 

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Def a better shot for a wintery outcome here, but it this amplifies enough, it will turn to rain and/or ice regardless of the antecedent airmass.

Woah never knew

[Ginx snewx]

45 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

-PNA . We don’t calm it RNA 

Ray's word count for RNA reference, 300? 500?

[40/70 Benchmark]

48 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

-PNA . We don’t calm it RNA 

I don't care what you call RNA.