Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[Typhoon Tip]

Actually a fuzzy signal mid month, too -

[dryslot]

Head fake at 12z,  Back on on the 18z on the goofus for now, Looks like it was hitting the sauce earlier, 12z GEFS agreed it was too.

[CoastalWx]

GEFs are interesting. At least it’s not clown range. 

[DavisStraight]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ah ... again, I wanna stress for those that really kinda sorta 'need to see these model runs deliver'    ... best not to focus or 'look' rather for details at this range.  I mean, 7 days - this is a favorable synoptic super structure evolving, that has the benefit of an Archembaultian system embedded -    it's true that a storm is higher confidence.  I would say 'favors' cold p-types, but that is by no means a declarative.   

I guess my point is, your going to get ticked off waiting run to run for ticks.  LOL

Isn't that what we do here for fun?

[dryslot]

GEFS looks good.

[PhineasC]

57 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Head fake at 12z,  Back on on the 18z on the goofus for now, Looks like it was hitting the sauce earlier, 12z GEFS agreed it was too.

The GFS just wants us to be happy. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Only 7 days for this one to vanish before our eyes 

This storm isn't going to vanish...it doesn't HAVE TO be a snower for us, but the storm is real.

[SJonesWX]

4 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Storm will be there, what’s up in the air is whether or not it will be wet or white.  Tip makes no reference to precip type in his heading.

“Cold p-type”. what do you think he is implying?

[Baroclinic Zone]

9 hours ago, SJonesWX said:

“Cold p-type”. what do you think he is implying?

33F rain

[Damage In Tolland]

13 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Happy New Year to every member that posts here!  Am not threading anything yet for Jan 2-3, Jan 6-7  The reasons are in the graphics below. The uncertainties are largest in the gradients.  If interested, click each for greater clarity.

The 06z/1 raw 10 to 1 snow ratio'd operational EC and GDPS (Canadian). Both are nada and as is the NAM (not attached).  My guess is a few ensemble members of the EPS/GEFS have a touch of snow in our forum but overwhelmingly it's unlikely. Saw the 06z GFS northern fringe but my guess on that is that not enough dry air is infused to dry out the northern fringe to virga.  So,  until the Canadian and NAM move north, I just cant get excited.

Jan 6-7 is of more interest to me, at least I95 itself northwestward.  Anything can happen at this point but it does look like a sizable wintery qpf event is coming to the northeast. How close it gets to NYC... unknown but I've alerted my I84 friends to monitor future forecasts for travel Friday morning.  Click the graphics if interested for greater clarity.  06z/1 EC OP, 06z /1 GGEM=GDPS OP, NWS 09z/1 Ensemble prob of 1"---all these focused on Sunday night-Monday morning, and then the late Thu-Fri ensemble chance of 3" of snow.

 

We alert 

[Damage In Tolland]

Why would Scooter be confused by that ? Things look good finally 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Why would Scooter be confused by that ? Things look good finally 

Could go either way on the 7th. I'm looking like 10th and beyond where it finally looks to turn a corner. 

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Could go either way on the 7th. I'm looking like 10th and beyond where it finally looks to turn a corner. 

Well if your confused and don’t understand something, please just ask Walt. I’m sure he’d be happy to walk you thru things 

[mahk_webstah]

I think the 7th is borderline even for here.  If that low develops SW won't it flood the mid levels with warm air given a lack of a high to hold in cold air?

[dendrite]

17 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I think the 7th is borderline even for here.  If that low develops SW won't it flood the mid levels with warm air given a lack of a high to hold in cold air?

It’ll probably look quite a bit different come go-time. Euro last night was good for us…but it really doesn’t matter. Moral of the story is there’s a storm threat in that time frame. Deets TBD.

[klw]

6Z GFS is acceptable.  Well for me at least.  Where do I send the request to have this locked in?  Does it go to Coastal or do I have to send it to PF as I am in the NNE posting section?

 

Clown:

[CoastalWx]

6z gfs buries the interior of CNE and NNE, and knocks out the grid elsewhere. 

[ORH_wxman]

06z eps has a pretty big spread…not a tight cluster

 

[mreaves]

13 minutes ago, klw said:

6Z GFS is acceptable.  Well for me at least.  Where do I send the request to have this locked in?  Does it go to Coastal or do I have to send it to PF as I am in the NNE posting section?

 

Clown:

I’ll co-sponsor the bill if you write it. 

[klw]

1 minute ago, mreaves said:

I’ll co-sponsor the bill if you write it. 

If you are making me do the leg work, it probably won't happen as the coffee has yet to kick in and the TV is calling me.

[mreaves]

46 minutes ago, klw said:

If you are making me do the leg work, it probably won't happen as the coffee has yet to kick in and the TV is calling me.

Maybe PF of JSpin will do the legwork. They seem more detail oriented than us. 

[cleetussnow]

6z gfs clown bullseyes my camp in VT.  

[PhineasC]

12z GFS takes it offshore.

[cleetussnow]

12z has more of a coastal scraper, mostly due to northern stream energy moving though the st lawrence valley sooner,  sharpening up the trough.  Decent look coastal plain, not as good  interior.

[qg_omega]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

12z GFS takes it offshore.

Virginia, GFS is such a trash model

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Virginia, GFS is such a trash model

Alot of that is from Monday 

[dryslot]

The only thing i'm taking from this time frame is there will be a storm, Don't care where it is tracking right now, By weds, Yes.

[Torch Tiger]

2 hours ago, klw said:

6Z GFS is acceptable.  Well for me at least.  Where do I send the request to have this locked in?  Does it go to Coastal or do I have to send it to PF as I am in the NNE posting section?

 

Clown:

That looks great!

[EastonSN+]

CMC is a weak miss to the south.

[CoastalWx]

GEFS look close to the Cape.