Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[Typhoon Tip]

Confidence should be higher for this particular coverage, than any other preceding so far this cold season and time frame for the purposes of early detection. 

Focus is January 6-7-8

What was was merely zygote yesterday, overnight down right embryonic with an early heartbeat.  As the for the specifics of this eastern N/A mid latitude amplification... it would be set to materialize in the D6 to 8 range...  more likely centered on D7.  

SO, there is inherent risk in attempting a deterministic forecast for this love child.  Yup but ... this isn't an impregnated crack-whore here. This is well-to do wealthy couple of families with good genetic pedigree, doing an arranged marriage with two early adults that actually find one another attractive - ... i.e., this child's prospects for actually being born are pretty good.

Longer analysis:  Multi sourced agreement was very zygote yesterday ...as others were/have been commenting. There better 'looks' materializing in each respective model type run cycles, spanning the last day's worth. At the time ( commented on this late in the afternoon ... heavily concerted agreement among the GEFs -based telecon for the -PNA to recover toward neutral.   I believe Scott might have also mentioned the GEF improvements ...etc. 

Last night that become exceptionally pronounced! The EPS at a glance would appear to support this idea in principle, of a -PNA release in lieu of a more seasonal looking PNAP construct to the flow as we end week one and head into week two ( I don't see the EPS numerical equivalent/calculations as I am a cheap douche that doesn't like paying for something that we can all see just by having a clue and looking at the height distributions among the various mass-field domains...  but that's just me).   

 

The impetus in this show-and-tell is that is a WHOPPER correction event implication there.  That is about as concerted agreement among the ensemble system of members as is mathematically possible. The first 7 days, ending roughly on the small annotated circle you see above(right), shows essentially 0 deviation along that very intense rise in the index - I'd almost go so far as to characterize that as a 'whiplash' event - something is snapping massive disruption thru the previously semi-permanent stasis in the Pacific North-American circulation manifold, and that kind of disruption almost has to incur some sort of balancing/restoring event.   Commonly referred to 'Archembaultian in following from her science back in the day.

Meanwhile, the operational guidance versions are all in what is really for this time range a pretty spectacular agreement regarding the principle components for this early detection. 

Sorry to emphasize that like I'm yelling ( lol..)  I just want this as a learning chance for how these things can sometimes beat/win against the early doubt machine of the typical long lead, model fantasy storm.  This one ... mm, isn't that. 

This aspect above is crucial as we head through the week - we need to see these larger scale concepts gain continuity in the guidance.  But therein, they are also rooted ( if not just exquisitely well timed..) within the same frame work of that impressive PNA jolt further above.  I've referred to this in the past as the "Miami rule"  - I've come to find that it does pretty good as an index finger rule.  This is about as detailed as I will get at this range, but as a significant S/W is being ejected through the west, we look to the SE U.S. and adjacent Gulf/Florida skies and off the SE U.S. coast.  If the heights are at or above 582 decameters over Miami Florida, and/or the balanced non-interference geostrophic wind is over 50 kts... negative interference is in play... as the S/W in question begins damping and reducing mechanical power as it descends toward the Tennessee Valley.   These annoted frames above, show that this is not the case.  Which in its self is ...really pretty f'n remarkable considering another avenue of discussion. 

Bottom line, since this  would-be system is emerging as one rooted deeply in a strong statistical correlation (Archambault), with the above PNA mode changes, this significantly weights confidence ... far more so in my perception comparing any other system so far that may have appeared favorable this year.  No need going into how well those turned out, huh. 

As a conceptual aside:  I also recall a sentiment I proposed last week or so ...regarding pattern gestation lengths.  Seldom do patterns lock for longer than 90 days. The system is inherently too dynamic to all for that to happen, with too many competing forces in Earth's total atmospheric engine to do "Red Spots".   In fact, the mean pattern time span, ...as we used to discuss in FAST way back in the day... is about 45 days.   Patterns may reload... but they will almost invariable go through a 'reset' or some sort of R' rollback/progression for an interim.  Or, the new paradigm sticks and represents a more fundamental change that will in its own right last for several weeks.  This PNA mode change appears to be connected to changes in the EAMT - can't recall the Met poster who brought this out last week with some nice animations, but this is suspiciously timed with that, and may in fact be a planetary wave# event. 

 

 

      

[Damage In Tolland]

Only 7 days for this one to vanish before our eyes 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Only 7 days for this one to vanish before our eyes 

Tru - but ... I don't care?

I don't.  I just like this method because it has worked ...many times in the past, for 'early detection'

What actually comes of it?   yeah...it could be a siggy coastal storm as I intimated.  It could certainly be just a colder - more convincing - pattern.  

But I am higher confidence that there is a pattern reshuffle on the doorstop here, and it starts entering the picture over the course of the next week. 

The system on D7 fits that mode-change statistical correlation for storminess.  Basically that whole post could be summarized in those two bold statements.  However big or fast moving, or whatever aside.  So, we'll see.  

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Confidence should be higher for this particular coverage, than any other preceding so far this cold season and time frame for the purposes of early detection. 

Focus is January 6-7-8

What was was merely zygote yesterday, overnight down right embryonic with an early heartbeat.  As the for the specifics of this eastern N/A mid latitude amplification... it would be set to materialize in the D6 to 8 range...  more likely centered on D7.  

SO, there is inherent risk in attempting a deterministic forecast for this love child.  Yup but ... this isn't an impregnated crack-whore here. This is well-to do wealthy couple of families with good genetic pedigree, doing an arranged marriage with two early adults that actually find one another attractive - ... i.e., this child's prospects for actually being born are pretty good.

Longer analysis:  Multi sourced agreement was very zygote yesterday ...as others were/have been commenting. There better 'looks' materializing in each respective model type run cycles, spanning the last day's worth. At the time ( commented on this late in the afternoon ... heavily concerted agreement among the GEFs -based telecon for the -PNA to recover toward neutral.   I believe Scott might have also mentioned the GEF improvements ...etc. 

Last night that become exceptionally pronounced! The EPS at a glance would appear to support this idea in principle, of a -PNA release in lieu of a more seasonal looking PNAP construct to the flow as we end week one and head into week two ( I don't see the EPS numerical equivalent/calculations as I am a cheap douche that doesn't like paying for something that we can all see just by having a clue and looking at the height distributions among the various mass-field domains...  but that's just me).   

 

The impetus in this show-and-tell is that is a WHOPPER correction event implication there.  That is about as concerted agreement among the ensemble system of members as is mathematically possible. The first 7 days, ending roughly on the small annotated circle you see above(right), shows essentially 0 deviation along that very intense rise in the index - I'd almost go so far as to characterize that as a 'whiplash' event - something is snapping massive disruption to the previously semi-permanent statis in the Pacific North-American circulation manifold, and that kind of disruption almost has to incur some sort of balancing/restoring event.   Commonly referred to 'Archembaultian in following from her science back in the day.

Meanwhile, the operational guidance versions are all in what is really for this time range a pretty spectacular agreement regarding the principle components for this early detection. 

Sorry to emphasize that like I'm yelling ( lol..)  I just want this as a learning chance for how these things can sometimes beat/win against the early doubt machine of the typical long lead, model fantasy storm.  This one ... mm, isn't that. 

This aspect above is crucial as we head through the week - we need to see these larger scale concepts gain continuity in the guidance.  But therein, they are also rooted ( if not just exquisitely well timed..) within the same frame work of that impressive PNA jolt further above.  I've referred to this in the past as the "Miami rule"  - I've come to find that it does pretty good as an index finger rule.  This is about as detailed as I will get at this range, but as a significant S/W is being ejected through the west, we look to the SE U.S. and adjacent Gulf/Florida skies and off the SE U.S. coast.  If the heights are at or above 582 decameters over Miami Florida, and/or the balanced non-interference geostrophic wind is over 50 kts... negative interference is in play... as the S/W in question begins damping and reducing mechanical power as it descends toward the Tennessee Valley.   These annoted frames above, show that this is not the case.  Which in its self is ...really pretty f'n remarkable considering another avenue of discussion. 

Bottom line, since this  would-be system is emerging as one rooted deeply in a strong statistical correlation (Archambault), with the above PNA mode changes, this significantly weights confidence ... far more so in my perception comparing any other system so far that may have appeared favorable this year.  No need going into how well those turned out, huh. 

As a conceptual aside:  I also recall a sentiment I proposed last week or so ...regarding pattern gestation lengths.  Seldom do patterns lock for longer than 90 days. The system is inherently too dynamic to all for that to happen, with too many competing forces in Earth's total atmospheric engine to do "Red Spots".   In fact, the mean pattern time span, ...as we used to discuss in FAST way back in the day... is about 45 days.   Patterns may reload... but they will almost invariable go through a 'reset' or some sort of R' rollback/progression for an interim.  Or, the new paradigm sticks and represents a more fundamental change that will in its own right last for several weeks.  This PNA mode change appears to be connected to changes in the EAMT - can't recall the Met poster who brought this out last week with some nice animations, but this is suspiciously timed with that, and may in fact be a planetary wave# event. 

 

 

      

Thanks for a really well thought out post.  Appreciate the effort and the information!

[PhineasC]

There has been something on the models for a long while now so it's worth discussing. It was a nasty cutter up until recently.

[George001]

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

There has been something on the models for a long while now so it's worth discussing. It was a nasty cutter up until recently.

Yeah that is trending in the right direction, it looks really good on the european guidance. Canadian isn’t there yet but it still has a really big storm.

[DavisStraight]

I've been waiting for Tip to smell out a storm he's usually right on when he see's something down the road.

[Typhoon Tip]

17 minutes ago, George001 said:

Yeah that is trending in the right direction, it looks really good on the european guidance. Canadian isn’t there yet but it still has a really big storm.

try not to get bogged down/hopeful based on details - just some friendly advice, for the general reader.

The purpose is recognition of certain markers/metrics of large synoptic envelope, those that have parlayed favorably in the past.

This is one of those times... How that will manifest in the "giddy" department, ...that's days off.  

That said, there is no harm in speculation only, as to how details may emerge ...modeling cinema therein support or against...etc. 

By the way, the GGEM trended at 12z ... really close to coalescing closer to the coast... In fact, that giant open nucleus you see over central and southern NE is a smoking gun for problems resolving at this time range.

One run among many... but illustrates that point:

[HoarfrostHubb]

Nice starting post Tip.  While quite a ways out it does look like something…cutter maybe? Is gelling.   Would be nice to see a shakeup of some type

[Typhoon Tip]

17 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Nice starting post Tip.  While quite a ways out it does look like something…cutter maybe? Is gelling.   Would be nice to see a shakeup of some type

To me that ( bold ) is above median/climate probability ...pattern reshuffle.  yeah.  There's going to be event(s) 'precipitating' ( haha sue me!) following out of that... Models will wander a bit at this range - duh. Some runs more onto it, then fade...bring it back.  ...blah blah. But I think the D7-ish is the first of the plausible scope(s) of interest. 

As far as cutter versus coastal...  I dunno - that's again going to be speculation.  Everything is at this range... But with the NAO going away, that does sort of leave room for Lakes cutter.  I would look for the N-S component of the larger R-wave amplitude as the PNA index is rising this week.  If that emerges with a lot of N and S ...that means that we dig earlier in the trough sequencing with that 130 hour S/W coming through the West... That would tend to signal DTX routing. 

The Pacific will instruct the future details as to where the ridge and trough axis align, and goes without saying... at D 6 to 8 range that can vary 1,000 naut miles in a single cycle.  I mean you hope it doesn't for headache's sake -

[512high]

48 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

To me that ( bold ) is above median/climate probability ...pattern reshuffle.  yeah.  There's going to be event(s) 'precipitating' ( haha sue me!) following out of that... Models will wander a bit at this range - duh. Some runs more onto it, then fade...bring it back.  ...blah blah. But I think the D7-ish is the first of the plausible scope(s) of interest. 

As far as cutter versus coastal...  I dunno - that's again going to be speculation.  Everything is at this range... But with the NAO going away, that does sort of leave room for Lakes cutter.  I would look for the N-S component of the larger R-wave amplitude as the PNA index is rising this week.  If that emerges with a lot of N and S ...that means that we dig earlier in the trough sequencing with that 130 hour S/W coming through the West... That would tend to signal DTX routing. 

The Pacific will instruct the future details as to where the ridge and trough axis align, and goes without saying... at D 6 to 8 range that can vary 1,000 naut miles in a single cycle.  I mean you hope it doesn't for headache's sake -

Like HoarfrostHubb and others said, thanks for taking the time to do a write up, for you to go out of your way like others have and do, sounds like you have the ingredients there for hopefully something big for all!

[cleetussnow]

Lakes cutter on the euro ...not that different from gfs. I only have tropical tidbits though.

[Allsnow]

4 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Lakes cutter on the euro ...not that different from gfs. I only have tropical tidbits though.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

Fwiw - the operational GFS look similar, but it's ensemble mean ( GEPs for that matter, too ) have been trending more coastal. 

This is the scatter plot range for this sort of early .. long lead outlook/risk assessment. 

[dryslot]

2 hours ago, PhineasC said:

There has been something on the models for a long while now so it's worth discussing. It was a nasty cutter up until recently.

Its back.

[ORH_wxman]

EPS takes the system over SE MA...pretty decent spread in solutions so way too early to talk about whether the system is "lost" yet.

[Typhoon Tip]

"Lost"?  ...ha...

I know what you mean but... just still establishing a favorable interval with this.

The PNA mode change is quite likely real, having every ensemble system ( haven't seen the Brazilian ....) indicating a mass field flip in key regions, usually doesn't go down without storm(s) - that's the focus.

As far as D7, I agree... I would advise folks that the ensemble means at this range are probably more telling -  ...fwiw, therein most of those are more coastward oriented.

[alex]

Gonna be a long week…

[Typhoon Tip]

Re the D7/8 event:   I don't have any apps installed where I can very readily generate looping slide shows... but I'd like to do that with the GEFs and GEPs

( https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=us&pkg=lowlocs&runtime=2021123112&fh=162 )

...going back four cycles. You can definitely see the mean is shifting SW down the coast in both, and the total spread is shrinking.   It's already a decent signal as of these 12z means. It appears the operational versions of both these ( in fact the Euro comparatively too - ) may be west outliers by a considerable margin.  

[Typhoon Tip]

Echoing Will's post:  this is impressive signal for D7/EPS mean

 

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS takes the system over SE MA...pretty decent spread in solutions so way too early to talk about whether the system is "lost" yet.

Split decision 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Storm will be there, what’s up in the air is whether or not it will be wet or white.  Tip makes no reference to precip type in his heading.

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Split decision 

I noticed that the overnight WPC position was inland over SE NE, and this afternoon's update has it at the elbow.  But the snow probs are more interior NE

[bristolri_wx]

@Typhoon Tip great write up, even if it doesn’t happen.

Also great that there’s no material in here to get cross posted back to off-topic threads 

[MJO812]

Gfs is way flatter than 12z

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Nice to see GFS jump on board nice hit for interior on 18z GFS

[EastonSN+]

One more tick to get SNE back in the game!

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Nice to see GFS jump on board nice hit for interior on 18z GFS

Really ... on the treadmill at the gym; hadn't seen it yet

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

One more tick to get SNE back in the game!

Ah ... again, I wanna stress for those that really kinda sorta 'need to see these model runs deliver'    ... best not to focus or 'look' rather for details at this range.  I mean, 7 days - this is a favorable synoptic super structure evolving, that has the benefit of an Archembaultian system embedded -    it's true that a storm is higher confidence.  I would say 'favors' cold p-types, but that is by no means a declarative.   

I guess my point is, your going to get ticked off waiting run to run for ticks.  LOL

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

@Typhoon Tip great write up, even if it doesn’t happen.

Also great that there’s no material in here to get cross posted back to off-topic threads 

Yeah... mistake wandering over there.  heh