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Enhanced Severe risk and storms Dec 31,Jan1


jaxjagman
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15 minutes ago, McMinnWx said:

Is this the main line blowing through? I’m in southeast TN. Got some scattered clouds here and sunlight. Likes of wind. 

Should be shortly,best chance of any strong tornadoes seen to be into MS/AL where better convection is right now..jmo

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https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0009.html

 

 Mesoscale Discussion 0009
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0157 PM CST Sat Jan 01 2022

   Areas affected...Northern MS into Far Northern AL and Southern
   Middle TN.

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 3...4...5...

   Valid 011957Z - 012130Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 3, 4, 5 continues.

   SUMMARY...Development of a few discrete supercells capable of
   producing tornadoes and damaging wind gusts possible from northern
   MS into far northern AL and southern middle TN.

   DISCUSSION...Recent observations suggest the outflow boundary moving
   through western TN has become less defined near the TN/MS border,
   suggesting that much of warm sector across northern MS and adjacent
   northern AL/southern middle TN will likely stay free from the
   influence of this boundary. Additionally, the amount and intensity
   of the warm sector cells has continued to increase, with several
   cells producing lightning over the past hour. This development is
   occurring within an environment characterized by warm and moist
   low-levels and strong vertical shear. Recent GWX VAD also sampled
   300 m2/s2 of 0-1 km storm-relative helicity. Expectation is for the
   storms currently in northern MS to organize/intensify further as
   they continue northeastward into a more sheared downstream
   environment.
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Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Nashville TN 148 PM CST Sat Jan 1 2022 TNZ060-061-075-093>095-012015- Lawrence TN-Wayne TN-Bedford TN-Maury TN-Giles TN-Marshall TN- 148 PM CST Sat Jan 1 2022 ...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern Wayne, Marshall, southern Lawrence, southeastern Maury, Giles and southern Bedford Counties through 215 PM CST... At 147 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 7 miles northwest of Shelbyville to 8 miles south of Lawrenceburg. Movement was northeast at 165 mph.

 

Sorry i couldnt resist the typo:P

  • Haha 3
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14 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Nashville TN 148 PM CST Sat Jan 1 2022 TNZ060-061-075-093>095-012015- Lawrence TN-Wayne TN-Bedford TN-Maury TN-Giles TN-Marshall TN- 148 PM CST Sat Jan 1 2022 ...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern Wayne, Marshall, southern Lawrence, southeastern Maury, Giles and southern Bedford Counties through 215 PM CST... At 147 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 7 miles northwest of Shelbyville to 8 miles south of Lawrenceburg. Movement was northeast at 165 mph.

 

Sorry i couldnt resist the typo:P

Yeah lol! Now 80/69 in Bham! Bham Jan record 81 10 Jan 49. This is even above Key West NYD norms. 

Screenshot_20220101-135251.png

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https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0011.html

 

   Mesoscale Discussion 0011
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0327 PM CST Sat Jan 01 2022

   Areas affected...North/Northeast MS...Northern AL...Middle TN

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 3...4...5...

   Valid 012127Z - 012300Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 3, 4, 5 continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm threat, including the potential for a
   tornado, continues ahead of the outflow boundary from northeast MS
   across northern AL into middle TN.

   DISCUSSION...Despite an abundance of warm sector development, most
   of this activity has failed to materialize into supercells thus far.
   The only exception is the pair of northeastward moving supercells,
   one over far north-central MS and the other over far northwest AL.
   Westernmost cell in this pair has begun to interact with the outflow
   while the easternmost cell is still slightly ahead of the boundary
   and may be able to remain more intense for a bit longer.

   While some weakening of the buoyancy has occurred, this narrow
   corridor ahead of the outflow still represents the best area for
   potential severe thunderstorms for the next few hours.
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So far our low for Birmingham today is 71. There has never been a 24 hr min temp 70+ In meteorological winter in Bham. In December 1991 (my High School senior year) we had a 70/1 am low but dropped to 69 before midnite. So these temps in & of themselves amaze others out there & me. I guess we wait & see if the storms knock us back below 70 before midnite.

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