Daniel Boone Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: I think part of what the models see is some downsloping off of the Frozen Head mts. Makes sense with a NE or NNE wind. Yeah, that's what it is. I've been checking basically everything and that's what I came up with. Lee County is being portrayed by Downsloping off High Knob and Black Mtn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McMinnWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Naturally, I fear the valley’s warm nose is going to laugh as the snow approaches. Hope I’m wrong! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, McMinnWx said: Naturally, I fear the valley’s warm nose is going to laugh as the snow approaches. Hope I’m wrong! LOL. About 1,000 different ways for things to get sideways in the valley. Oddly, my fear with this would be downsloping which causes the column to warm just enough to slow the onset of the snow. The warm-nose itself is probably either a product of warm air pushing up the valley or warm air created by the downslope. I want to see a strong system coming by to our southeast. That will pull the cold in quickly. Good to see reports of early changeovers. May signal some strong dynamics. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Front hasn’t moved through here yet. Temp is up to 62. I think that would be a record if it actually snows later. Incredibly warm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 So, are we talking 40 degree temperature swing in Nashville from this time yesterday? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Ridley, TN from Twitter: 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 So Tornado Warnings and Watches improve the effect over general thunderstorms. Just kidding! Regarding the Great Valley, it's definitely downslope. Cold air likes to get trapped. Warm air would rise through cooler air (instability) or just be static stable (all else equal). Of course with terrain it's not equal, and we get downslope instead. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 You guys think this is all snow for eastern areas? Usually when you see the maxed out blue it's bright banding mixing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 It's just the HRRR. In all seriousness probably some sleet. Eventually it's changing over and snowing for a few hours. DGZ ain't bad either. Can't always be perfect saturation. Hopefully inside 12 hours a Red Tag does not jinx it. Still thinking warm nose hell dusting or less KCHA. I like almost every other forecast point in our region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, fountainguy97 said: You guys think this is all snow for eastern areas? Usually when you see the maxed out blue it's bright banding mixing. With the position of the low pulling the deform band in, it creates extra upslope lift along the smokies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Latest RAP. You can see the lighter areas south of Frozenhead/Cross Mtn and South of High Knob that Daniel Boone mentioned. Even they are filling in as we go forward. Looks like the sleet area is about 1 County wide in western areas with heavy snow right behind that. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 So Tornado Warnings and Watches improve the effect over general thunderstorms. Just kidding! Regarding the Great Valley, it's definitely downslope. Cold air likes to get trapped. Warm air would rise through cooler air (instability) or just be static stable (all else equal). Of course with terrain it's not equal, and we get downslope instead. . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, fountainguy97 said: You guys think this is all snow for eastern areas? Usually when you see the maxed out blue it's bright banding mixing. If that tracks and is wrapped up like that then 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Lock in that RAP. See Chattanooga forecast. Rest of y'all are good to go! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, nrgjeff said: Lock in that RAP. See Chattanooga forecast. Rest of y'all are good to go! Yeah thats the bad side of the LP position..downslopes the plateau..kinda like a half pipe effect created by the valley 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 10 minutes ago, John1122 said: Latest RAP. You can see the lighter areas south of Frozenhead/Cross Mtn and South of High Knob that Daniel Boone mentioned. Even they are filling in as we go forward. Looks like the sleet area is about 1 County wide in western areas with heavy snow right behind that. 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuCoVaWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 I have no idea what to expect here. Between all of the models and different forecasts, it's confusing lol. Was 4-6, then 2-4, now NWS Charleston is saying 1-3. I'm fine with anything. These systems must be super hard to pinpoint, even this close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigbald Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 What has been rock solid is Roan Mtn down the Smokies. I know they will always do better but it's been modeled solid there for a long time now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 Down to around 49 here in Morgan County. Gusty, cold NW wind and light rain has begun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Had some light rain here the past hour,it seemed to cool the thermals some,we are at 36 now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 I’m remembering an event from January 2013 similar to this. We had a long duration warm rain event followed by a quick closed off low. If I recall correctly, everyone in the valley from West Knox southwards blanked. Knoxville north and east got several inches of heavy wet snow. The warm air bubble was in a very similar spot. Short term models are showing it getting almost up to Knox county now. I’m still hopeful that we get some favorable dynamics for a quick inch or two in the outlying areas and hilltops. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wintersnow888 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Down to 41 here and drizzle in NW Cumberland county 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 I’m remembering an event from January 2013 similar to this. We had a long duration warm rain event followed by a quick closed off low. If I recall correctly, everyone in the valley from West Knox southwards blanked. Knoxville north and east got several inches of heavy wet snow. The warm air bubble was in a very similar spot. Short term models are showing it getting almost up to Knox county now. I’m still hopeful that we get some favorable dynamics for a quick inch or two in the outlying areas and hilltops.It’s sad that we can remember a non historic snow that happened 9 years ago. We are due . 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 In Chattanooga we remember all the big strike-outs. Bottom of the Ninth Game 7 WS with RISP. All we need is a blooper. WhifX3! There was the Chattanooga Saturday miracle February 2020. Nice things before the Pandemic, lol! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 The NAM giveth....the NAM taketh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 56 minutes ago, nrgjeff said: It's just the HRRR. In all seriousness probably some sleet. Eventually it's changing over and snowing for a few hours. DGZ ain't bad either. Can't always be perfect saturation. Hopefully inside 12 hours a Red Tag does not jinx it. Still thinking warm nose hell dusting or less KCHA. I like almost every other forecast point in our region. Just saw the 18z NAM….. Dang, Jeff…. Had no idea your powers were that quick. lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 That 18z NAM is rough for my area. :/ May need to chase some southeast of town with that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 Not only does it downslope and warm the area we were talking about earlier, but dries it out as well: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olhausen Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 36 degrees in White House and I can hear sleet hitting the garage door. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 MRX: 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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