Reb Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: I think you're going to do much better than me with this one Reb. I suspect I will have boundary layer problems until the precip is just starting to move out, but the ~50 miles between me and Blount county will make a ton of difference. The low starts to deepen as the precip is moving out for me, but I think foothills areas will get really good rates for a while. The 14z HRRR actually shows areas closer to the mts turning before me in SE Morgan county. I recently moved to Seymour so I’m a little close to the mountains than I was What a beautiful and impressive system to watch unfold 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 12z GFS give Jeff more snow than me, lol: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: 12z GFS give Jeff more snow than me, lol: I wouldn’t focus too much on small areas being shown with BL issues. The models don’t have enough resolution to accurately predict accumulations during quick hitting heavy events like this. I still believe this will be a quick 1-3 on elevated surfaces even in the lower elevations, with a big thumping for everyone over 1500’ or so. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 I wouldn’t focus too much on small areas being shown with BL issues. The models don’t have enough resolution to accurately predict accumulations during quick hitting heavy events like this. I still believe this will be a quick 1-3 on elevated surfaces even in the lower elevations, with a big thumping for everyone over 1500’ or so.Agree with you. Rates will overcome BL issues . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Agree with you. Rates will overcome BL issues . I hope so. I just remember the HRRR indicating something like this with a system last year, and it played out that way. But, this storm a whole different beast and I have never seen such an energetic storm since I've been posting on here, so I will go with your alls experience. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: I hope so. I just remember the HRRR indicating something like this with a system last year, and it played out that way. But, this storm a whole different beast and I have never seen such an energetic storm since I've been posting on here, so I will go with your alls experience. It's all going to depend on where the deform band setups up when it pivots (12z suite has along and east of I75). 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: I hope so. I just remember the HRRR indicating something like this with a system last year, and it played out that way. But, this storm a whole different beast and I have never seen such an energetic storm since I've been posting on here, so I will go with your alls experience. I've seen the snow hole you're referring to play out several times before. I'm not 100 percent sure what causes it. It really tends to hit Anderson County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, John1122 said: I've seen the snow hole you're referring to play out several times before. I'm not 100 percent sure what causes it. It really tends to hit Anderson County. I think part of what the models see is some downsloping off of the Frozen Head mts. Makes sense with a NE or NNE wind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 I've seen the snow hole you're referring to play out several times before. I'm not 100 percent sure what causes it. It really tends to hit Anderson County. Warm air in the valley gets banked up against the plateau? We had a situation several years ago where cold air north and west of Knoxville got trapped up against the plateau in the valley and WAA never won out. I was supposed to get a couple of inches from a front end thump but ended up with 8” because it never changed over. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 10 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Warm air in the valley gets banked up against the plateau? We had a situation several years ago where cold air north and west of Knoxville got trapped up against the plateau in the valley and WAA never won out. I was supposed to get a couple of inches from a front end thump but ended up with 8” because it never changed over. . I'd guess it's more what Holston says. Down sloping off Cross Mountain and Frozenhead when a LP takes a certain angle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 I'd guess it's more what Holston says. Down sloping off Cross Mountain and Frozenhead when a LP takes a certain angle. I’m 5 miles east of 75 so usually it doesn’t effect me. I’m also at 1300’ so if get a little bit of elevation . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Math/Met Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 23 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: I think part of what the models see is some downsloping off of the Frozen Head mts. Makes sense with a NE or NNE wind. Agree. There are some subtle hints of sinking air in that area at the lower levels. It’s not very significant, but it could have a slight effect on temperatures in those areas. Hopefully the overall dynamics of the system will overcome it, but it's hard to ignore when models pick up on it (speaking from experience with my area). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 15z HRRR actually has a corridor almost directly south of Frozen Head/ Cross mt that takes longer to change over: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 Although, the 15z HRRR upped amounts near @AMZ8990 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Although, the 15z HRRR upped amounts near @AMZ8990 Thanks Houston. Light to steady rain mixing in with some sleet right now in bolivar. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 Actual arctic front starting to show up on radar into Eastern KY and closing in on me and John: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 The 15z HRRR was a little deeper at 995mb and was tucked more up against the western tip of South Carolina than the 12z HRRR (996 mb and a little bit east of that). The trend is our friend as the saying goes. And all models have been trending toward a slower and deeper low tucked up against the mountains. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 16z RAP closing the snow hole a bit. It's still snowing in the East at this time. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Nashville bumped the totals up http://www.weather.gov/images/ohx/graphicast/image6.png?9d1ba232addb54030e98f8bf627047ec 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 National Weather Service Nashville TN 1100 AM CST Sun Jan 2 2022 .UPDATE... FOR MORNING DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... Closed upper low expected to slide just to our south tonight still looking to give the mid-state a shot of winter pcpn later today into the overnight hours. Temps currently falling and mixed pcpn already showing up min parts of west TN. Will likely see a slow changeover this afternoon west, become all snow this evening. Snow amount forecast vary greatly. Several CAMs showing very high bullseye`s here and there but currently thinking is most areas west of the Plateau 1-2, 2-3 on the Plateau. These amounts are likely on grassy, exposed surfaces. Roads quite warm and much will melt while falling. Elevated surfaces may become slick tonight, and for the morning commute. Thus upped amounts just slightly for today, and made small adjustments to pops. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 17z RAP further closed snow holes except right over Chattanooga. Looks more uniform across the state. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Final Euro call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Sleet has started in Kingston Springs. Coming down at a healthy clip. With 4 under 6 (Granted, one is still in the NICU), I'm so glad this is all happening during the day. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: I hope so. I just remember the HRRR indicating something like this with a system last year, and it played out that way. But, this storm a whole different beast and I have never seen such an energetic storm since I've been posting on here, so I will go with your alls experience. Hrrr was terrible here last year. I tallied just under 30" for the season. If it had been right, about 10. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Sleet has started in Kingston Springs. Coming down at a healthy clip. With 4 under 6 (Granted, one is still in the NICU), I'm so glad this is all happening during the day. Temp?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 The 17z HRRR is also coming in a bit less snow holey but it still has some of them. Overall it's a pretty good run for us. I actually think they could be under modeling the NW quadrant for such a track so close to the mountains. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, PowellVolz said: Temp? . 36 with 40-45 dbz's overhead. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 I talked to my folks in Paris, it's coming down hard there. The ground got white quick. 10 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 53 minutes ago, Blue Moon said: Wow! That changeover came in faster than anticipated. Indeed. The sleet is starting to stick on the porch as I type this. I think if you can score some icy dbz's ahead of the snow changeover, those ground temp issues will be more marginal than initially anticipated. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, *Flash* said: Indeed. The sleet is sticking decently to the porch as I type this. I think if you can score some icy dbz's ahead of the snow changeover, those ground temp issues will be more marginal than initially anticipated. That is a win given it was like 95 yesterday!!!! Awesome to hear. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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