Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 Although he is talking about the mid Atlantic, I think some of that applies to NE TN and SW VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 8 minutes ago, Kasper said: Glad to see you posting, Kasper! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 12z HRRR looks like it is just a tad slower and deeper with the energy. I guess we'll see what that translates to at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 10 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said: Glad to see you posting, Kasper! Thanks it’s been a crazy busy year for myself, new job, etc, etc, add nausea! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 6z HRRR: 12z HRRR 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 @Holston_River_Ramblergood to see each model run (so far) generally holding serve. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Save the itchy algae! Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Really expected to wake up to things going poof this morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 I can't tell if the issue show on the HRRR in the valley is just temperatures (in which case I believe rates will trump it), or a loss of forcing from the deformation zone. If it's the latter, someone is getting screwed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 NAM coming in better. Low is slower and sw, building a bit better than previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach B Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, dwagner88 said: I can't tell if the issue show on the HRRR in the valley is just temperatures (in which case I believe rates will trump it), or a loss of forcing from the deformation zone. If it's the latter, someone is getting screwed. Could be a combination of both. If you look closely at the 12z HRRR accum map, there is a bit of a gap in middle TN as well. Just like always, there is going to be winners and losers based on elevation and where the bands develop. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Not so great for our WTN folks but pumping up totals and filling some holes in the eastern portion 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndTenn Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Currently running NAM has 1.8" at Johnson City at 4am, 11.0" at 7am. Do the math - that's some serious snowfall rates. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Well it took a lot longer than anticipated, but the 12z NAM finally NAM’d east TN properly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Lots of 1/2" to 1" pics coming out of AR in areas where no accum was forecast this morning 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, TellicoWx said: Lots of 1/2" to 1" pics coming out of AR in areas where no accum was forecast this morning The Bands setting up in Arkansas look decent honestly, moving a tad slower than anticipated as well. We will see how they do as they move across the Mississippi River though, as that’s were stuff usually falls apart for us in west Tn. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 12z NAM 3k looks better for the state of TN as a whole…… 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said: The Bands setting up in Arkansas look decent honestly, moving a tad slower than anticipated as well. We will see how they do as they move across the Mississippi River though, as that’s were stuff usually falls apart for us in west Tn. Yeah will be interesting to watch evolve east of the MS. The runs with decent amounts had that tounge of precip on them last night. Really takes off east of the river on those runs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 3k leaves the door open for more in the mid-south. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Good luck to you guys out west...basically nowcast time for yall. Alot of "surprise snow" and "did not expect this" tweets coming out of AR. Radar looks decent setting up between Memphis and Pine Bluff. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 8 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: Good luck to you guys out west...basically nowcast time for yall. Alot of "surprise snow" and "did not expect this" tweets coming out of AR. Radar looks decent setting up between Memphis and Pine Bluff. Fayetteville, Arkansas reporting anywhere from a dusting up to an inch around the city. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Starting to get excited. 2"/hr rates is no joke. If that heavy deformation band sets up, even if the strongest of the event only last 3-5 hours, that's a nice haul for NETN/SWVA. 4-6" for the upper northeast Valley seems possible with the higher elevations getting thumped. 8-12" looks doable for the Smokies, Banner Elk, Mt. Rogers, into the Blue Ridge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 The wind chills on the back side of this system are pretty stout as you can tell by the map posted above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Looks like the radar is blowing up in memphis good returns. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Live cam in Memphis for anyone interested in seeing what unfolds https://www.graceland.com/graceland-cam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 12z RGEM shows major mixing issues for those of us in the central and southern valley just along the edge of the plateau: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: 12z RGEM shows major mixing issues for those of us in the central and southern valley just along the edge of the plateau: Right on cue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Those rates on the GFS.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 I think you're going to do much better than me with this one Reb. I suspect I will have boundary layer problems until the precip is just starting to move out, but the ~50 miles between me and Blount county will make a ton of difference. The low starts to deepen as the precip is moving out for me, but I think foothills areas will get really good rates for a while. The 14z HRRR actually shows areas closer to the mts turning before me in SE Morgan county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 But man, I would love to have a cabin stocked up in the Grayson Highlands tonight! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now