Dsty2001 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 So...is it time for us to get excited yet? lol Not seen a thread with this good of potential not blow up or maybe people are just tired of being burned by the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuCoVaWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, Dsty2001 said: So...is it time for us to get excited yet? lol Not seen a thread with this good of potential not blow up or maybe people are just tired of being burned by the models Im right there with ya. I want so much to be excited, and truthfully I am. But being burnt by models so many times makes it hard. Having said that, most models are showing this and even WCYB acknowledged this. For them to up their totals, something has to be up. They are usually super conservative. Understandably so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 11 minutes ago, Dsty2001 said: So...is it time for us to get excited yet? lol Not seen a thread with this good of potential not blow up or maybe people are just tired of being burned by the models 12z tmrw I'm biting. 00z tonight every model but NAM I hit the 12" mark on kuchera. If that's the same tmrw at 12z I'm jumping on the train. If models are correct and I get 10-12" of snow in 6-7 hours it will by far be the most intense storm I've ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Some of these GEFS members.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Thought I'd mention this as it may be of interest to some on the board. There appears to be an apparent problem with several of the Model runs snowfall projections for portions of the area, in particular Lee County and adjacent areas of which is obvious based on topography, as well as historical data. Could be a grid problem as Carvers noted while discussing with him. I'll speak with KMRX tomorrow and see what they know regarding this. This area is not known for the prominent snow hole as Kingsport and bordering communities adjacent to there. It actually looks as though the distinguished great Valley lower snowfall amounts area on the models are west of the area they should be, based on the Valleys topography 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 hour ago, McMinnWx said: These models have to be off….right? I will be stunned if they aren't but man I sure hope they are right or even 50 percent right. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 14 minutes ago, John1122 said: I will be stunned if they aren't but man I sure hope they are right or even 50 percent right. Clown maps divided by two is my modus operandi for winter events. That’s still a good snow for most at this rate. Huge bust potential in either direction. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 No one has mentioned it, but just looked at the UKMet on Pivotal and it has basically no snow accumulation outside of the mountains. However, it was more amped with the 2nd system later in the week. Definitely an outlier compared to the other models, but wanted to mention it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 0z Euro already better 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Not quite like the rest of the models, but another step in that direction 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Only difference between the Euro and GFS is 1) Euro is a little south with SLP vs GFS and 2) Euro is about 4mb weaker on the SLP. Combine those two and it is just a tad slower with the changeover in the valley. At 30 (height of the precip in the valley), GFS has changed over and Euro is still mixed bag (about a 2° difference right at the surface) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 6z HRRR... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Under 24 hours and the NAM is also holding steady. The exact areas of heaviest snow will move around some but it looks like we are all in line for fast and furious thumping. I expect the issuance of winter products with the morning package Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 The final 06z NAM map may quite literally get everyone who posts here. Memphis, NE Arkansas, SWVa, North Miss, North Alabama, Chattanooga, SE Kentucky, we all got snow with it. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Lots of warnings and advisories issued by MRX. They are basically saying this is an East based event. Winter Storm Warning for areas East of Knox. Have my area with less snow than Knox and central Valley areas. Possible for sure but it definitely doesn't line up with most modeling for the Plateau vs the valley. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Very rare sight, the entire forum area is under winter weather products this morning except for far NE Arkansas. Looks like every county in Tennessee is under a WWA or WSW. In addition to the not from above, MRX disco did mention they may need to expand the WSW to the west. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 06z GFS and 09z RAP are just huge. The RAP gets us all. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 The boundary our low will ride overnight is setting up: I guess this is one of the reasons we always want to see the shortwave tilt negatively, so that it backs the low level flow and pulls the slp back N, in this case (hopefully), tucks it up on the leeside of the Apps. You can see the flow starting to back on satellite over central AL as higher clouds build back in from south to north: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 Or I guess I could have been smart and just used the WPC one: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 6z Euro bumps totals up again: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Gah, I hate to get excited but.. it's time to maybe get excited? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, Dsty2001 said: Gah, I hate to get excited but.. it's time to maybe get excited? I know, I'm the same way. Literally was just thinking, "Is this even real? WTF is happening?" as I was reading the NWS Blacksburg disco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 This snow possibility feels almost surreal. At least to me, it feels an awful lot like trying to steal victory from the jaws of defeat. I can’t remember a winter storm where it was near 80 the day before and where we scored the first day of a pattern change, and where there was severe weather the day before. Maybe these are good reasons not to get too excited……. lol. Good modeling overnight and into this AM. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 The bust potential is high, but I don't see MRX issuing WSW if they weren't confident. Timing will be key on how fast the cold air arrives, then of course how heavy the snow rates get. If they do reach 1-2" per hour as per the MRX discussion, I don't see why it couldn't accumulate quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, Dsty2001 said: The bust potential is high, but I don't see MRX issuing WSW if they weren't confident. Timing will be key on how fast the cold air arrives, then of course how heavy the snow rates get. If they do reach 1-2" per hour as per the MRX discussion, I don't see why it couldn't accumulate quickly. Rates always trump ground temps. The chance (and a good one at that) is there for a significant snow for east and northeast TN. The mountains likely get plastered with tree snapping concrete. For lower elevations it depends heavily on the strength & track of the low, and timing the change from heavy rain to heavy snow. I’m optimistic, but cautiously so…. It’s good to see MRX bullish, they are generally very conservative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Should have snow falling in west Tennessee around 10am-11am this morning. I’ll let you guys know how it performs on the west side of the state once it starts. Hope everyone can score a nice Snow today/tonight. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Looks like you guys out east might be in a good deformation zone.;least we might see snow anyways 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 15 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said: Should have snow falling in west Tennessee around 10am-11am this morning. I’ll let you guys know how it performs on the west side of the state once it starts. Hope everyone can score a nice Snow today/tonight. Good luck out that way! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 Nice catch from the MA thread about the meteorology of the system: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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