TellicoWx Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Still at work...wth did the GFS smoke lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: Still at work...wth did the GFS smoke lol Evidently, the RAP and HRRR got into the good stuff as well....maybe even the RGEM. LOL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Evidently, the RAP and HRRR got into the good stuff as well....maybe even the RGEM. LOL. Believe the RGEM would look very similar but it's downsloping the moisture on this side of the Smokies for the valley. Heavy rates on the NC side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 GFS has ensemble support. Big uptick. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Biggest runs we have seen in awhile at 0z and 6z. Hate to be MRX in this situation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 MRX will do as they always have, play it conservatively till the event is already underway. Can't say I blame them though, I've seen model support for heavy snows in the past only to end in cold rain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VOLtage Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 I would give anything for this to come true 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 I haven’t felt this good feeling blue in a while. Generally, the systems that perform well are the ones that uptick their projected totals towards their impact date. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 18z Euro: as usual, the precip type maps are late, but here is the qpf: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: 18z Euro: as usual, the precip type maps are late, but here is the qpf: Snow maps are similar, but appears that it backs more so. System is about 2-3mb deeper at hours 36 and 39. Just a hair northwest of its 12z run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Hrrr lining up exactly like RAP 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 Vivid lightning and thunder up here on the plateau. TIMS model is hopefully holding steady here at 1z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 It's a beauty. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Hrrr was a little slower with changeover in the valley, but is deepening further to the west (NE GA/NW SC) border (better trajectory for the heavy snow for the valley. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 Here is a gif of the HRRR. Such a nice evolution for the northeastern valley: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Might be some of the quickest hitting and heaviest snow modeled for northeast TN I have ever seen. The northeast TN mountains seem to be getting the pivot and low pass almost perfectly. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 I mean it would seem there is some pretty good model agreement that there will be some accumulating snow, MRX still seems shy to pull the trigger on any watches/advisories. This is within the next 24-36hr correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Man hard not to get excited here in Unicoi county. But hrrr definitely has some bright banding going on the first couple of hrs. So the snow is probably a little lower than kuchera. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, tnweathernut said: Might be some of the quickest hitting and heaviest snow modeled for northeast TN I have ever seen. The northeast TN mountains seem to be getting the pivot and low pass almost perfectly. Was just saying the same thing...hrrr is deepening at the perfect time, slowing the flow...if it plays out this way, the wind generated will be another big story combined with the heavy wet snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Dsty2001 said: I mean it would seem there is some pretty good model agreement that there will be some accumulating snow, MRX still seems shy to pull the trigger on any watches/advisories. This is within the next 24-36hr correct? I think the conundrum they face is wrt travel impacts. That’s what their products are really for, while people like me at least are chasing just heavy snow on radar and deck pics. It’ll be interesting to see how the roads hold up after such warm weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, Dsty2001 said: I mean it would seem there is some pretty good model agreement that there will be some accumulating snow, MRX still seems shy to pull the trigger on any watches/advisories. This is within the next 24-36hr correct? I think the conundrum they face is wrt travel impacts. That’s what their products are really for, while people like me at least are chasing just heavy snow on radar and deck pics. It’ll be interesting to see how the roads hold up after such warm weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: I think the conundrum they face is wrt travel impacts. That’s what their products are really for, while people like me at least are chasing just heavy snow on radar and deck pics. It’ll be interesting to see how the roads hold up after such warm weather. Any area that gets close to 32, combined with those rates and night time...will begin accumulating on any road surface 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 If I had to make a call, I’d say travel at elevations above 2500 feet is no bueno tomorrow pm and overnight, but less certain below that elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: If I had to make a call, I’d say travel at elevations above 2500 feet is no bueno tomorrow pm and overnight, but less certain below that elevation. Think if 0z holds course....mtns will get a WSW. Only way I see them pulling one for the valley would be for the Euro to line up completely with the rest of modeling. They prob. will differ to the morning shift, and wait for the full 6z suite for the valley. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Rates are going to be key. I’ve had 3 inches of wet snow accumulate at 34 degrees. It melted from the bottom up, but it made a quick mess of the roads. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 6 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: Any area that gets close to 32, combined with those rates and night time...will begin accumulating on any road surface And think that's fair. TBH I'm probably hand-wringing a little bit about it. I think there will be some micro climates come in to play tomorrow night that I've never gotten to see before, wrt the energy and slp track, and I'm pretty happy about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, dwagner88 said: Rates are going to be key. I’ve had 3 inches of wet snow accumulate at 34 degrees. It melted from the bottom up, but it made a quick mess of the roads. Agree, once go below 34 is where I start watching the roadways. Seen plenty times where shaded areas especially begin accumulating. Heavy rates/night (lack of solar radiation) = slush, which just speeds up the process of the asphalt cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Feel free to correct if I don't have a good idea, but am curious to see how much of 5-6 inches of snow as modeled by NAM/HRRR would actually stick and accumulate. I'm expecting at most a dusting here in Sevier County. I don't have a great idea of how fast soil temperature falls with snow, etc. Overall, am hoping for a nice little event here and hopefully an appetizer for later this week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 0z NAM already deeper and slower as soon as hour 14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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