fountainguy97 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 9 please 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 The 12z GEFS definitely surprised me with that uptick. Below is its 6z to 12z trend comparison. The 12z CMC(compared to 0z) also had and uptick(not the ensemble here... the operational). I just haven't seen it posted, so are you go. Here is the GEPS comparison from 0z to 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 1, 2022 Author Share Posted January 1, 2022 Euro was more amped with the energy at 12z too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 The 12z Euro is also showing similar backing with the system. Apologies to the middle and west TN folks for not having a GIF(that is Holston's game and he is good at it). WARM ground temps make the nighttime onset a huge bonus. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 1, 2022 Author Share Posted January 1, 2022 Here is the evolution wrt precip: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Euro definitely caved to the GFS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 18z HRRR 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 18z NAM looks like it tried to Amp even more and derailed itself lol...see if 3k follows suite 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Biggl winner on 3k.....Birmingham, AL lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 RGEM steady as she goes. Hope it's correct. It's usually good with Northern stream energy but less so with the southern stream. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 RGEM looks good. SLP was a bit more wrapped up as evidenced by the NW jog. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 MRX still fairly conservative right now. Think they are focused on the severe threat. Rightfully so, they mention that ground temps could limit accumulations in the valley. Personally, I think the mountains get walloped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 I have seen spring storm dump huge amounts in the mountains after very warm days preceding. Rates will overcome a lot if the rates are there.....Happens out west nearly every June. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 What do I have to do to get this to happen? 7" in 2 hrs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 5 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said: What do I have to do to get this to happen? 7" in 2 hrs We really need to add a wow button. No idea if that occurs, but that run is impressive. Mountains may get hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 1, 2022 Author Share Posted January 1, 2022 Stout short wave. Nice STJ connection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 1, 2022 Author Share Posted January 1, 2022 Looks like the 18z GFS just NAMed eastern areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 1, 2022 Author Share Posted January 1, 2022 Happy hour requires the COD webpage color scheme: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: We really need to add a wow button. No idea if that occurs, but that run is impressive. Mountains may get hammered. We do haha. 3-4" hr rates on alot of models. Usually we deal with 12+ hr storms but this one entirely falls in 6hrs. Ground temps won't matter much with rates like that as well as the rapid freeze into the low 20s Someone could very well end up with near blizzard conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 1, 2022 Author Share Posted January 1, 2022 Do any of y'all remember the "Dandridge Dollop" storm? This one just dolloped me here in Morgan county in the same way, lol: 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Keep seeing people say no way it would stick since it's been in the 70s for weeks now. Little do they remember.. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigbald Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 15 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Happy hour requires the COD webpage color scheme: What follows on the next front ain't bad either (Jan 7). One of the best op runs in the last 3 years for east tn, even if pure fantasy ha! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 1, 2022 Author Share Posted January 1, 2022 In regard to soil temps, I will say that they seem to be able to crash back down pretty quickly (12/18 - 12/20) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 This escalated quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said: In regard to soil temps, I will say that they seem to be able to crash back down pretty quickly (12/18 - 12/20) Oh yeah. Sure it's not ideal and we will lose some accumulation but this isn't 12hrs of .5" rates. The heavy rates plus diving temps. Ground will be white before you know it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 29 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said: What do I have to do to get this to happen? 7" in 2 hrs Thundersnow to get that rate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 1, 2022 Author Share Posted January 1, 2022 Wow at the RAP. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 6 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: In regard to soil temps, I will say that they seem to be able to crash back down pretty quickly (12/18 - 12/20) It sounds counterintuitive but having wet ground when it's warmer actually aids in snow fall but if it approaches the rates modeled it will pile up and fast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Look at that band. Crawling across TN 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 If the RAP was legit we'd have one of the best Memphis to Bristol events in many years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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