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TIMS model verification, December 31, 2021 - January 3, 2022


Holston_River_Rambler
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Some crap never changes. Expected but still...

4 hours ago, dwagner88 said:

 No go for most of Hamilton county and Chattanooga. Cut offs were Signal to the West and White Oak Mountain to the East. Better luck next time. 

Congratulations to everyone else who got snow. LOL Tuscaloosa but not Chattanooga. I understand the physics but I'm still shaking my head in disgust.

Again, I'm happy for everyone else in the entire free World who got snow!

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South of Bristol, got stuck between two heavier bands just to our west and east for a while as the deformation pivoted. Though it is still snowing, I doubt we'll total 2" of accumulation. Still nice to finally get some decent snow so not going to complain at all.

Much of SWVA, including the valleys are in the sweet spot of that deformation band. Wytheville, Blacksburg, Pearisburg, Roanoke, etc., are getting hammered.

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10 hours ago, John1122 said:

It's absolutely pouring here. We are going to have flooding with snow on it if we actually get the change over and get anything. After watching the MRX video, not sure if I actually get anything frozen or not really. 

Roads are pretty hazardous this morning in hardeman county.  Lots of ice patches and snow on the highways/ side roads.  I’m surprised it stuck so well to the roads honestly 

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2 hours ago, jrips27 said:

We are over 7” now at 2900 feet near Gatlinburg. Here was about an hour ago. I’m celebrating my 25th birthday today so had to snow chase. It’s been awesome. Enjoy everyone  

 

How much did you end up with? Enjoy reading all yalls reports! I was going to make it up to gatlinburg to chase from down here from Birmingham, but couldn’t make it. Hope the pattern allows some more good setups this month and into February.

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The last flake has fallen here. I think it is safe to say that this system underperformed for KTRI. I was thinking 3-4" in line with modeling and the MRX forecast, but I'll take my inch of cement and enjoy my day off. Congrats to those that scored. Hopefully this is just a tease for something better in the coming weeks.b248d4de4d898aaf9ac525826ca9a8b3.jpg

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On the drive in from Mossy Grove to Bearden I’d say the big winner was around Pellissippi State. Snow accumulations started to taper off around Coalfield who I’d say got 1/4”. Oliver Springs really got screwed. Nothing even on roof tops or grassy surfaces. There was at least a faint hint of a dusting on the top of the hill between Oliver Springs and Oak Ridge. As Runman said OR itself looked pretty bleak. Snow picked up again on the hill just past Oak Ride on 62 heading toward pellissippi parkway. 

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Oak Ridge and Oliver Springs were slow to change over.  Kingsport is another area with very little.  We don’t shed many tears here.  After four decades of living here, pretty much the norm.  Though, the last few years we have done well.  We were overdue.  Will officially record a trace here.  Normally with a low to our southeast, we score.  Band just didn’t set up over Kingsport.  Other areas of TRI did well - closer to the Apps one goes.  Great storm to track though!

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Some crap never changes. Expected but still...
Congratulations to everyone else who got snow. LOL Tuscaloosa but not Chattanooga. I understand the physics but I'm still shaking my head in disgust.
Again, I'm happy for everyone else in the entire free World who got snow!
It really does amaze me how this can continuously happen. I honestly can't remember a statewide snow where Chattanooga got involved with at least just 1 measley inch of snow. It's just mind boggling. There were some huge flakes that dropped for a short period of time but that was it.

Sent from my moto z4 using Tapatalk



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1 hour ago, TellicoWx said:

We have trees down everywhere here, FLEC reporting 4200 power outages, lots of cars slid of the roadways this morning around the county. Still have 3"-4" of paste, which considering the melting/compaction..models wasn't too far off on snowfall outputs here.

Same on this side of the Skyway in Graham County..any reports from the Skyway?

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1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Oak Ridge and Oliver Springs were slow to change over.  Kingsport is another area with very little.  We don’t shed many tears here.  After four decades of living here, pretty much the norm.  Though, the last few years we have done well.  We were overdue.  Will officially record a trace here.  Normally with a low to our southeast, we score.  Band just didn’t set up over Kingsport.  Other areas of TRI did well - closer to the Apps one goes.  Great storm to track though!

Yeah. Deform setup East unfortunately. Wound up with 1.7" here. Downsloping off Black did probably hurt some but, it mainly was the deform and I think extreme convective area to our south producing heavy rates there robbed some northward transport of moisture n2 this area.

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4 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah. Deform setup East unfortunately. Wound up with 1.7" here. Downsloping off Black did probably hurt some but, it mainly was the deform and I think extreme convective area to our south producing heavy rates there robbed some northward transport of moisture n2 this area.

Forgot about the convection piece.  Good point. 

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I know for mby, the snow depth charts wasn't too far off on most the short range models. While I have little doubt the snow accum maps verified from some of the rates were falling across the county. What hurt more than the warm ground, was the heavy rain before transition due to the latent heat release all the ground moisture gave off imo.

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Yeah @Uncle Nasty we know the physics, but it's still a tough pill. I mean the picture right above is not that far away. Chattanooga is of course the lowest elevation; so, downslope does more here. Also the Mountains are directly east-northeast, so that just magnifies the relief over which the downslope travels when a surface low is pivoting. KCHA misses the critical time of snow. Cold air simply must be in place first. We've done it from mid-30s before, but I've never seen it starting above 40 with rain.

Tri-Cities is always a pressure cooker. I mean at least in KCHA we can just set our expectations low - or go up Signal/Lookout where it snowed. Kingsport has to get going early on the east wind; otherwise, the north wind on the very back side is downslope. Johnson City often has to endure downslope crap before the wind turns around more. Parimutal racing metaphor. Kingsport is a breaker and JC is a closer. If Kingsport does not break it's over. JC just has to wait. Bristol seems to behave a little closer to the Norwegian cyclone model, unless warm nose hell which often delays.

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44 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Yeah @Uncle Nasty we know the physics, but it's still a tough pill. I mean the picture right above is not that far away. Chattanooga is of course the lowest elevation; so, downslope does more here. Also the Mountains are directly east-northeast, so that just magnifies the relief over which the downslope travels when a surface low is pivoting. KCHA misses the critical time of snow. Cold air simply must be in place first. We've done it from mid-30s before, but I've never seen it starting above 40 with rain.

Tri-Cities is always a pressure cooker. I mean at least in KCHA we can just set our expectations low - or go up Signal/Lookout where it snowed. Kingsport has to get going early on the east wind; otherwise, the north wind on the very back side is downslope. Johnson City often has to endure downslope crap before the wind turns around more. Parimutal racing metaphor. Kingsport is a breaker and JC is a closer. If Kingsport does not break it's over. JC just has to wait. Bristol seems to behave a little closer to the Norwegian cyclone model, unless warm nose hell which often delays.

Excellent analysis and analogy of the area . Definitely put it in perspective. 

    That is why a juiced weaker system with light winds and an overrunning event are in most cases better for snow within the great Valley.

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54 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Yeah @Uncle Nasty we know the physics, but it's still a tough pill. I mean the picture right above is not that far away. Chattanooga is of course the lowest elevation; so, downslope does more here. Also the Mountains are directly east-northeast, so that just magnifies the relief over which the downslope travels when a surface low is pivoting. KCHA misses the critical time of snow. Cold air simply must be in place first. We've done it from mid-30s before, but I've never seen it starting above 40 with rain.

Tri-Cities is always a pressure cooker. I mean at least in KCHA we can just set our expectations low - or go up Signal/Lookout where it snowed. Kingsport has to get going early on the east wind; otherwise, the north wind on the very back side is downslope. Johnson City often has to endure downslope crap before the wind turns around more. Parimutal racing metaphor. Kingsport is a breaker and JC is a closer. If Kingsport does not break it's over. JC just has to wait. Bristol seems to behave a little closer to the Norwegian cyclone model, unless warm nose hell which often delays.

Excellent analysis for the KCHA area Jeff, completely agree. I always feel for you guys. Not a ton of elevation difference or distance between Chatt and Madisonville, yet it's like they are on two different playing fields.

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25 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Last night was such an extreme situation regarding heavy rain and warm ground that any little thing was a monkey wrench. But if you got under a great band or two you racked up. 

From MRX, a little broad brushed but mostly accurate imby. 

YhxtRf.md.jpg

Yeah pretty accurate for me too, with an inch and a half total. Can anyone in East Knox county confirm those higher totals?! 

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