fountainguy97 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 20 minutes ago, Blue Moon said: Near Fairview 18z hrrr had your area changing to all snow around 8pm. Energy is tilting negative and back building. You should be good for a few hours of decent rates! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 So how are the short range models looking right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 37 minutes ago, Blue Moon said: Careful: the warm nose was missed by the HRRR for our area. Between three separate rain shadows, and downsloping winds...we know the drill in Kingsport. LOL. Not too mention we have easily the state's largest micro-heat island. Not so much a warm nose here as it is warm air that just won't scour out or that we make our own warm air. We also deal with downlsoping winds. Once that slp swings to our SE, the warm nose stops. What I saw with that 23z run of the HRRR was the slp was 1-2mb deeper over Upstate SC which has caused much more moisture to be on that model run. Last Christmas, took a while for the warm air to leave and for cold to flood-in from the Plateau. Our biggest advantage here is that we are have higher elevation than most cities....JC and Bristol are I think 100-200 feet higher than us. We will see...thermal profile will be threading the needle. Usually is. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 35 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: Areas affected...parts of the southern Appalachians and Southeast Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 030019Z - 030515Z SUMMARY...Periods of moderate to heavy snow will likely develop through this evening as temperatures begin to drop and forcing for ascent strengthens markedly. Snow rates of 0.5-1 in/hour will be possible with the strongest bands. Brief periods of mixed precipitation including sleet and freezing rain may also develop. DISCUSSION...As of 0015 UTC, a potent mid-level shortwave trough was analyzed via WV imagery across the eastern ARKLATEX. To the south, a 90-100 kt jet streak was beginning to round the base of the positively tilted trough moving onshore across southwestern LA. A broad area of low pressure at the surface was centered across western GA with an expanding precipitation shield noted to the northwest of the low and ongoing convection. Recent surface observations across southwestern TN and northern MS have shown an increase in the occurrence of snow and mixed precipitation types over the last few hours with diurnal cooling taking place. Strong height falls from the approaching trough are forecast to advect eastward over the next few hours as the trough becomes negatively tilted, augmenting surface mass response and deepening the aforementioned surface low. Low-level cold advection should follow suit, accelerating the change over, first to mixed precipitation, and then quickly to snow of parts of the expanding precipitation field. While temperatures remain mild, the rain/snow line should move eastward with time concurrent with increasing precipitation rates from strengthening 850-700 frontogenesis and the development of convective bands owing to subtle buoyancy aloft. Regional soundings show favorable profiles for periods of moderate and occasional heavy snow expanding northeastward with time from northern AL into eastern/central TN along the western slopes of the southern Appalachians. Snow rates of 0.5 to 0.75 in/hr will be possible for several hours resulting in reduced visibility and potential travel issues. Localized 1+ in/hr rates may also be possible beneath the heavier convective elements or near local topography favorable for orographic enhancement. Snow may linger for a few hours overnight before forcing and dry air to the west shift precipitation northeastward. When was that released, Tellico? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 When was that released, Tellico?About 30 min ago. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Between three separate rain shadows, and downsloping winds...we know the drill in Kingsport. LOL. Not too mention we have easily the state's largest micro-heat island. Not so much a warm nose here as it is warm air that just won't scour out or that we make our own warm air. We also deal with downlsoping winds. Once that slp swings to our SE, the warm nose stops. What I saw with that 23z run of the HRRR was the slp was 1-2mb deeper over Upstate SC which has caused much more moisture to be on that model run. Last Christmas, took a while for the warm air to leave and for cold to flood-in from the Plateau. Our biggest advantage here is that we are have higher elevation than most cities....JC and Bristol are I think 100-200 feet higher than us. We will see...thermal profile will be threading the needle. Usually is. tbh I think the snow just tries to avoid the stink from Kingston lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 minute ago, Blue Moon said: Here we go! First flakes, and they're big. Convective band coming in from your SW,see if it grows 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: I could be 100% wrong about this, but it looks like as the energy is starting to close off and tilt more neutral, the TROWAL feature is starting to develop in West TN: I think it is that small area of precip. starting to build back barely west of main moisture, just south of Jackson, TN. You can also see the back edge of the lift the shortwave is producing (colder cloud tops/ darker purples over the same area of west TN) turning almost south to north on satellite (and maybe ever so slightly SSE to NNW): Definitely agree it's starting to tilt, which helps middle TN warm nose problem. MS/AL border has already switched to all snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McMinnWx Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Latest HRRR cut totals in half for McMinn County. I’m ready to have the rug pulled out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 minute ago, McMinnWx said: Latest HRRR cut totals in half for McMinn County. I’m ready to have the rug pulled out. HRRR,is not doing a very good job..IMHO.Dont think i'd even look at it now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McMinnWx Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 4 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: HRRR,is not doing a very good job..IMHO.Dont think i'd even look at it now What’s most reliable at the moment? I’m a novice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Just now, McMinnWx said: What’s most reliable at the moment? I’m a novice. Use the mesoscale on spc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Just now, jaxjagman said: Use the mesoscale on spc https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=19&parm=pmsl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McMinnWx Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Just now, jaxjagman said: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=19&parm=pmsl Thank you! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Changeover happening across Nothern AL as the tilt continues. Radar confirmation (pic from Gravelly, AL near Florence) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 When is the last time that the SPC has issued a mesoscale discussion for tornadoes/severe weather and then for heavy snow the very next day? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Even in areas the rates aren't high it seems to be sticking, night time and low sun angle ftw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Pure snow started in the Springs about 20-25 minutes ago. Sticking to all surfaces except the roads at this point. Temp holding between 31-32. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, 1234snow said: When is the last time that the SPC has issued a mesoscale discussion for tornadoes/severe weather and then for heavy snow the very next day? WPC post the Surface Analysis,spc post when ever they think is warrant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 we might be getting a good convective band in a few min,stronger cell to out south tho 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wintersnow888 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 I've got rain with ice mixed in , like John said earlier. Temperature is down to 33. Not quite formed into sleet pellets and not sticking to surfaces so not cold enough for freezing rain I guess 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 25 minutes ago, Blue Moon said: The NAM has done better today. The 0z is coming in hot. Let's see what she says! I say it needs drug tested lol...jumped my area to 11" 1 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 32 minutes ago, 1234snow said: When is the last time that the SPC has issued a mesoscale discussion for tornadoes/severe weather and then for heavy snow the very next day? Within 24 hours, many areas have gone from all-time record highs to accumulating snows. No doubt, that is wild stuff. Some modeling nailed this time from 3+ weeks ago and the rainfall that came right prior to today. Truly amazing that computer modeling can do that now. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 What is crazy...nearly the exact same thing happened during 1984. Highs in the 70s on Jan 1 followed by snow 3 days later. Not sure that analog helps going forward, but just crazy how good it was for February and up to now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 SPC Mesoscale discussion does not account for the Great Valley. I don't expect a micro-scale map, but that broad brush is pretty bad to be honest. Chattanooga in the heart of the heavy sticking snow? Um, no. That aside, SPC seems to be with the local WFOs. They see the trough pivoting negative. That will indeed cool the column in a hurry. Lower Great Valley won't benefit much due to typical downslope and oh my it's still warm! Still SPC makes good points about the rest of the system. More than Feb. 2020 it reminds me of an event back in Kansas during October. Don't ask how long ago, haha. Tight low came in while temps were above freezing. Low pivoted negative and dumped 1-2 inches per hour snow. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach B Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Here in southwest Marshall county I've got all snow with a temp of 32.5. Just measured .5" on the snowboard. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 We are now casting at this stage. The models are just making a guess and the short range models change every hour. One blip may mean something big then be gone next run. I'll say what I always say in these situations, know your backyard climo and it's probably going to work out for you as well as any model at this point. We are having some thunder here. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 38 in Corbin, has changed over to snow in Somerset. Good luck and happy new year everyone. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 The lastest nam looked like an improvement for eastern areas. Less downsloping and a slightly quicker changeover. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 4 minutes ago, John1122 said: We are now casting at this stage. The models are just making a guess and the short range models change every hour. One blip may mean something big then be gone next run. I'll say what I always say in these situations, know your backyard climo and it's probably going to work out for you as well as any model at this point. We are having some thunder here. 1000% agree....good example is the 01z HRRR, apparently inhaled some of the crack fumes from the 0z NAM for mby 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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