jaxjagman Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 hrrr looks to fast with the cold catching up,otherwise we'd get 5+",some decent convective bands going on here 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 Seeing some fatties mixing in at the Moore's road exit on 65 south of Brentwood. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, Blue Moon said: I like em phat Have you returned to the homeland from your venture to the far north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, Blue Moon said: We actually have some freezing rain mixed with sleet near Fairview. Surface temp is 32. See if those bands hold together for you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 8 minutes ago, Blue Moon said: I like em phat you should be changing over anytime now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 How are things looking in Cumberland @Wintersnow888? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 I could be 100% wrong about this, but it looks like as the energy is starting to close off and tilt more neutral, the TROWAL feature is starting to develop in West TN: I think it is that small area of precip. starting to build back barely west of main moisture, just south of Jackson, TN. You can also see the back edge of the lift the shortwave is producing (colder cloud tops/ darker purples over the same area of west TN) turning almost south to north on satellite (and maybe ever so slightly SSE to NNW): 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Good chance the Plateau holds that Arctic air up some. Maybe since there’s a wave hooked to it, the front will maintain speed?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, PowellVolz said: Good chance the Plateau holds that Arctic air up some. Maybe since there’s a wave hooked to it, the front will maintain speed? . I think the dynamics of the system will help more in the valley as it starts to really deepen east of the Apps. But on he subject of arctic air, you can see the rain snow line of correlation coefficient moving NW to SE. the green line as it moves from Bowling Green/ Portland and Glasgow, KY to Lafayette, TN. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wintersnow888 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Temperature has dropped a bit to 37 and the wind is definitely picking up, still just rain though ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Blue Moon said: Nope. Still a mix. Taking longer than anticipated to scrub out those 850s. yeah we got some mix now here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 15 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: I think the dynamics of the system will help more in the valley as it starts to really deepen east of the Apps. But on he subject of arctic air, you can see the rain snow line of correlation coefficient moving NW to SE. the green line as it moves from Bowling Green/ Portland and Glasgow, KY to Lafayette, TN. Its been closed off but its a broad area,mesoscale shows it tighten up the next four hrs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dankles Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just started sleeting in Murfreesboro. 36 degrees 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 9 minutes ago, Blue Moon said: We have mostly ZR with some IP here at the moment radarscope says it snowing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 @Holston_River_Rambler, the Thunder in the Mountain model has verified yet again. This time amazingly so. Record highs yesterday in the middle and western areas of the region...snow today. I feel like I am seeing something from the Plains or northern Rockies with this turn around. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, Blue Moon said: It is incorrect, unfortunately damn that sucks,yall have to start before us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 I know its nowcast time, but 18z Euro just had its best run for me...8". Better late than never I guess lol. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xAllVolsx Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Steady moderate amount of sleet falling here in North Lawrence County. It was 41 degrees earlier and it felt like 15. Will be curious to see when the transition happens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 23z HRRR looks much stronger than 22z. Changeover is quicker. Let's see where that goes. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 13 minutes ago, Blue Moon said: It is incorrect, unfortunately Think we are getting warm nosed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 minute ago, jaxjagman said: Think we are getting warm nosed 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 @Daniel Boone, that dead spot in the wx grid along the VA/TN border is driving me crazy. LOL. It is on every model, every run. Something is way, way off with that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0023.html. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wintersnow888 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Just checked, temperature has dropped 2 or 3 more degrees to 34 . I'm 12-13 miles Nw of Crossville and several hundred feet higher so it should change over here first 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Areas affected...parts of the southern Appalachians and Southeast Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 030019Z - 030515Z SUMMARY...Periods of moderate to heavy snow will likely develop through this evening as temperatures begin to drop and forcing for ascent strengthens markedly. Snow rates of 0.5-1 in/hour will be possible with the strongest bands. Brief periods of mixed precipitation including sleet and freezing rain may also develop. DISCUSSION...As of 0015 UTC, a potent mid-level shortwave trough was analyzed via WV imagery across the eastern ARKLATEX. To the south, a 90-100 kt jet streak was beginning to round the base of the positively tilted trough moving onshore across southwestern LA. A broad area of low pressure at the surface was centered across western GA with an expanding precipitation shield noted to the northwest of the low and ongoing convection. Recent surface observations across southwestern TN and northern MS have shown an increase in the occurrence of snow and mixed precipitation types over the last few hours with diurnal cooling taking place. Strong height falls from the approaching trough are forecast to advect eastward over the next few hours as the trough becomes negatively tilted, augmenting surface mass response and deepening the aforementioned surface low. Low-level cold advection should follow suit, accelerating the change over, first to mixed precipitation, and then quickly to snow of parts of the expanding precipitation field. While temperatures remain mild, the rain/snow line should move eastward with time concurrent with increasing precipitation rates from strengthening 850-700 frontogenesis and the development of convective bands owing to subtle buoyancy aloft. Regional soundings show favorable profiles for periods of moderate and occasional heavy snow expanding northeastward with time from northern AL into eastern/central TN along the western slopes of the southern Appalachians. Snow rates of 0.5 to 0.75 in/hr will be possible for several hours resulting in reduced visibility and potential travel issues. Localized 1+ in/hr rates may also be possible beneath the heavier convective elements or near local topography favorable for orographic enhancement. Snow may linger for a few hours overnight before forcing and dry air to the west shift precipitation northeastward. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 @Blue Moon where are you located? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Rain finally picked up here. Just drove home and it has that splattery look to it. It's 43 degrees though, so I expect the 11pm or later changeover. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 IP and SN now here 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 The very worst part of any rain to snow system is the wait. We had one last year and it seemed to take forever. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol Man Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Sorry if already posted...just ran across this and didn't see it in this thread 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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