AMZ8990 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Large flakes coming down now in bolivar at a moderate rate. Looks like we will have a few hours of this. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 8 minutes ago, Blue Moon said: IT'S FAPPENING Ripping fatties? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Interesting statement from MRX in that graphic...says visibility will be near zero at times early Mon morning 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 MRX goes WSW east of 75 . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: MRX goes WSW east of 75 . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach B Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 HUN just upgraded to a WSW as well! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 HUN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 MRX goes WSW east of 75 .I never like it when MRX does this. Kiss of death . 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: I never like it when MRX does this. Kiss of death . Totally agree. There’s truly never been a greater jinx. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Fayette Co, TN from Twitter 5 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Great discussion by MRX.. LOVE the Trowal part!! .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday)... Key Messages: 1. Difficult snowfall forecast for low elevations. Definitely a battle of snowfall rates vs. air/ground temperatures. Impacts what amounts people will wake up to Monday morning. 2. High confidence in accumulating snowfall occurring tonight, even in southern parts of the TN valley. 3. High confidence in significant snowfall event for the higher elevations of SW Virginia and the east TN mountains. Discussion: Synoptically speaking, a strong upper trough over the Arklatex region this afternoon will transition to a cutoff low over the next 12-18 hour as it shifts east across Mississippi and Alabama. As this occurs, this will place our forecast area beneath a strong deformation band this evening and overnight, with the potential for high snowfall rates and resulting significant snowfall event. Precip associated with this system will spread north from Alabama later this afternoon and early part of the evening. Surface temperatures and thermal profiles universally support an onset ptype of rainfall. This will quickly change however as a TROWAL develops overhead around and shortly after midnight tonight. Strong lift through the dendritic growth zone accompanied by negative EPV yields the potential for convectively enhanced precip and subsequently banded precip and high precip rates tonight. Model soundings show rapid cooling through the column tonight, suggesting dynamic cooling will contribute to snowfall reaching the ground with surface temperatures that might not otherwise be supportive of much more than a rain/snow mix. Meanwhile, more substantial CAA will be ongoing after 06z to 09z as surface cyclogenesis is in full swing east of the Appalachians and cold continental air begins to spill into the valley, further aiding in potential for accumulating snowfall. Regarding confidence levels, confidence is very high in the presence of snowfall tonight. That does not appear to be in question. The big unknowns are 1) where does the deformation axis and associated heavy, banded snowfall set up, 2) how high will the resulting precip rates be, and finally 3) will these factors be able to overcome warm ground temperatures and at least initially warm surface air temperatures. The last two factors will have huge implications on what people wake up to see in terms of snow depth. Heavy precip rates, on the order of 2"/hour, are expected but will be short lived generally only for 3-6 hours at most. This would be enough to cause travel impacts and overcome the ground temperatures for a short period. For those traveling overnight this could be an issue. The big question is what snow depth will actually be seen by most people. If a valley location gets 4 inches of snow overnight and it ends at 3-4am, will the ground remain warm enough to melt most of that by the time people wake up at 5 to 6am? That remains to be seen. However, all of the available guidance I have at my disposal points to a notable snowfall event for many places, especially at higher elevations, and have adjusted the forecast in that direction. Regarding snowfall amounts, accumulations along/east of the I-75/I- 81 corridor in the valley have been upped a bit and amounts in the TN mountains have been increased significantly. It is quite possible that portions of the Smokies could see a 12-13" snowfall out of this storm. In the valley, expanded the 3-5" accumulations and resulting winter storm warning to include the Knox metro area town to McMinn county along I-75, as well as added eastern Polk, Cherokee and Clay counties in NC, and Lee county in Virginia. Cherokee and Clay counties will mostly be higher elevations though. One big uncertainty I still have is the plateau counties. Those areas will be the furthest remove from deformation precip, but will also see the colder air quicker. Have left them all in the advisory for now but would not be surprised to see some warning level accumulations given how this system is shaping up. On the back side, precip wraps up around or very shortly after daybreak tomorrow. Perhaps some upslope showers continue in the mountains through late morning but believe it will be mostly done by then. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Am I wrong or does it appear the cool down is happening quicker than forecast in west TN? Looking at temp map looks like freezing line is quickly approaching Nashville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Goose Feathers falling in Jackson, TN 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 7 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: Goose Feathers falling in Jackson, TN This is what to watch for later tonight and it is certainly possible if a trowal comes into play. Flakes that size will accumulate super quick. It happened for us in Feb 2020. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigbald Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 18z gfs mirror the rather meteoric run of the 12z. We can all dream! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 18 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said: That is a score, man!!! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 20 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said: Is this your back yard? If so, that’s AWESOME!! Congrats…. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Close,might be snowing in Nashville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: That is a score, man!!! I agree brother, definitely makes for a great Sunday afternoon! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 maybe not,not sure why it put that scan in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Arctic fronts are good at coming in quicker west of the Plateau. I think you're right. 59 minutes ago, Dsty2001 said: Am I wrong or does it appear the cool down is happening quicker than forecast in west TN? Looking at temp map looks like freezing line is quickly approaching Nashville Unfortunately the Great Valley can not escape downslope, esp below Maryville, Tenn. Chatt temps are still nutty warm. Plateau blocks low level cold. Smokies double down with sinking motion out of the East. I'm not sure why MRX is so optimistic. I always love mention of the T-word though. Good for points north and east and west and even south. TROWAL! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: Is this your back yard? If so, that’s AWESOME!! Congrats…. Front yard, and yeah man it is awesome! Definitely over achieved here 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 I couldn't be more baffled by the NWS disco from MRX and BNA. They mention several inches of snow possibly melting by day break with a low in the low to mid 20s? The ground is warm but if that happens it will be something I have never seen, even in April snow events. I don't know what they are looking at to bump totals in some areas but suppress totals in others. Especially around Crossville/Central Plateau which is showing up with 4-7 inches across basically all guidance. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Yeah grassy areas are not melting if it's in the 20s, even if the soil is still 40s. Roads will probably quickly improve after it ends though. Obligatory back deck and grill pictures will be preserved most of the morning. Looking forward! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just got home from Hixon. It was 57 when I left there but you could feel the cooler air moving in then. It's 46 here at home. Hopefully I'm not stuck in the middle, too far east for the transferring low and too far west for the trowel. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Yeah grassy areas are not melting if it's in the 20s, even if the soil is still 40s. Roads will probably quickly improve after it ends though. Obligatory back deck and grill pictures will be preserved most of the morning. Looking forward!Very similar to Christmas Eve last year. Rates overcame ground temps quickly . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 46 up here in Morgan County and it feels like the tundra, lol. There's definitely some atmospheric battling going on at my location on the SE edge of the plateau in Morgan County. Last Jan. was when I think the HRRR told me the boundary layer would be problematic and that day there was a steady wind out of the SW. I felt that wind a few minutes ago when I went out to walk the doggos, but there is a stronger one blowing in from the NW more often than not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Very similar to Christmas Eve last year. Rates overcame ground temps quickly.MRX posted a video of that event. But I wish they would have noted that the surface temperatures had little impact on initial accumulation. It came down hard and fast and everything was covered within the first hour. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Sleet mixing with the rain here just east of Nashville. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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