WaryWarren Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 5 minutes ago, Natester said: This better not end up like 11/25/18 where Cedar Rapids got nothing while the county south of Cedar Rapids got several inches. That's a long time to hold a grudge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Temps are a bit ‘warmer’, which is not surprising with a longer fetch wind off the lake. . Yeah, but the 10:1 and Kuchera maps are basically the same from about Chicago into nearby northwest IN. I don't know about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 30, 2021 Author Share Posted December 30, 2021 5 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Yeah, but the 10:1 and Kuchera maps are basically the same from about Chicago into nearby northwest IN. I don't know about that. I wouldn't bet on higher with the lower level temps. Well inland, sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: I wouldn't bet on higher with the lower level temps. Well inland, sure. I'm not saying crazy high ratios, but I think something like 12:1 is doable closer to the lake. Lower to start and higher toward the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CANNOTDIVIDEBY0 Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I'm not saying crazy high ratios, but I think something like 12:1 is doable closer to the lake. Lower to start and higher toward the end. NAM 4K has temps at 29 vs 33 @60hrs on regular NAM if that means anything to you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/ A little early for this I guess.. but Arp-1 please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 0z ICON slightly north of the 18z run in terms of the snow shield but a bit south of the 0z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 30, 2021 Author Share Posted December 30, 2021 27 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I'm not saying crazy high ratios, but I think something like 12:1 is doable closer to the lake. Lower to start and higher toward the end. Going into BUFKIT, using max T method has ratios ~10:1 to start and finishing ~20:1, with ~12:1 during the heart of the event. 14.2" total. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 0z RGEM kuchera method totals. Not bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 6 minutes ago, Natester said: 0z RGEM kuchera method totals. Not bad. Looks to be the furthest north solution at this point, has a pretty weird hump to the snowfall in Missouri as well which i don't expect based upon low ejection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 GFS agrees with the NAM, wagons south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Another slight delay in precip onset on the GFS? Bulk of this turning into a Saturday evening event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 30, 2021 Author Share Posted December 30, 2021 Another slight delay in precip onset on the GFS? Bulk of this turning into a Saturday evening event Trough and wave ejection is slowing.Something we almost always see in these situations.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, madwx said: GFS agrees with the NAM, wagons south With the ridge to the south there is a limit to how far south it can shift, I honestly think the GFS is that limit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Heh... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Pretty good difference in temps. Temps colder with this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Quite a secondary on 0z GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Just now, Gino27 said: Story of our life 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: Quite a secondary on 0z GFS. Hopefully that doesn't steal our defo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 0Z GEM comin in hot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 0z CMC in line with the 0z NAM 12k in terms of track and snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 28 minutes ago, Gino27 said: Heh... Naturally, I'm right in the screw zone.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 59 minutes ago, chuckster2012 said: Naturally, I'm right in the screw zone.. Outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Always find it amusing how stubborn models can be in their own solutions and not wanting to converge. Feel like overall most models have seemed closer to GFS with 0z nam being first run of nam with noticeable bump south. Euro being quite stubborn and really wanting to keep much higher totals quite nw of here likely because of stronger warm nose. Definitely not getting excited yet because any bump north on models and it will be a rainer or mix central here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Papi euro South Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 30, 2021 Author Share Posted December 30, 2021 Papi euro SouthSlower, not south.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Well, at least becoming more confident in avoiding significant mixing around here. This almost feels like a watered down version of the progression from December 1998 into January 1999. Had the awful December followed by the storm when 1999 rolled in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 8 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Slower, not south. . Yeah, my bad, I was operating off a mental image of last night's run. Whoopsies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 30, 2021 Author Share Posted December 30, 2021 Euro still leaving the door open for even more potential.With the secondary wave and main trough ejection out of the West and another wave diving south from Canada…Better positioning and a more southward diving Canadian wave would allow for further develop a close secondary system and/or keep snows going longer.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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