New Years Winter Storm

[Spartman]

This thread should be extended to January 2nd.

GooFuS at 6z for January 2nd:

[Chicago Storm]

This thread should be extended to January 2nd.
GooFuS at 6z for January 2nd:

it’s new years weekend, good enough.


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[A-L-E-K]

This one kinda stuck in boring mode, hope models bring back more exciting solutions and we don't trend back to a strung out duster

[ChiTownSnow]

I'll take it verbatim, then last minute stronger storm that cuts more north during nowcast time.  ++ Lake enhancement

[ChiTownSnow]

Getting into NAM range out west.  With so many moving parts out west the NAM may be useful 

[SchaumburgStormer]

Even going back to the more "strung out" solution, we still end up with a long duration 4-6" event. Beats rain I suppose. 

[Chicago Storm]

Getting into NAM range out west.  With so many moving parts out west the NAM may be useful 

The amount of moving parts doesn’t make the NAM any more useful than other guidance.


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[ChiTownSnow]

Just now, Chicago Storm said:

The amount of moving parts doesn’t make the NAM any more useful than other guidance.


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Short range NAM vs Long Range was more my point

[Chicago Storm]

Short range NAM vs Long Range was more my point

We’re not in short range NAM territory yet.

Then add in the NAM has been horrific for months now.


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[ILSNOW]

comparison 6z NAM vs 12z NAM (Just a slight difference)

 

12Z NAM

[ChiTownSnow]

7 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

We’re not in short range NAM territory yet.

Then add in the NAM has been horrific for months now.


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You don't consider the NAM in short range out west? 

[Thundersnow12]

12 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

The amount of moving parts doesn’t make the NAM any more useful than other guidance.


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You’ve become like a father figure Yoda having to correct everyone and talking them back to neutral 

[Chicago Storm]

You’ve become like a father figure Yoda having to correct everyone and talking them back to neutral 

i’ve been told i’m just an asshole that hates on people around here.


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[ChiTownSnow]

4 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

i’ve been told i’m just an asshole that hates on people around here.


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Nah..you're just lucky you're good at what you do.  Otherwise yes that'd be true.

[madwx]

12z NAM is amped and NW at long range.   Feels good to have at least some sense of normalcy around here

[hawkeye_wx]

The RDPS is well south of the NAM/Euro.  The difference appears to have to do with the energy digging into the pacnw.  The NAM/Euro dig the initial energy more southward and allow it to eject the Baha energy (our storm) out in front of it.  The RDPS digs the initial pacnw energy more eastward so the Baha energy is held south and is unable to eject northeastward until the second piece of energy digs into the pacnw.

[Sciascia]

Talk about a sharp cut-off

[Natester]

Everyone wins, except those in the rain/mix zone.

[SchaumburgStormer]

GFS leaning back towards the siggy solution. The whiplash continues. 

[CANNOTDIVIDEBY0]

Looks like 25knt sustained winds off the lake too for Chicago. Not sure if this will help with lake enhancement that's not being shown on GFS. 

 

Edit: Meant to reply to @Natester

[Chicago Storm]

You don't consider the NAM in short range out west? 

Not so much. A significant portion of the storm system evolution still occurs towards the end of the run. Also add in that some important pieces are not within the NAM domain as of yet.

This is why you’ll often see it jump around more significantly compared to other guidance.


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[Natester]

12z CMC and 12z RGEM still south and weaker.  Both have the snows missing Iowa entirely.

[hawkeye_wx]

Yeah, the Canadian is very weak and south.  It predicts the western energy to be flatter instead of sharp and digging, so the storm's energy is just swept eastward with little amplification.

[Chicago Storm]

The 12z Ukie is more similar to the GFS.


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[Chicago Storm]

Quality signal showing up on the GEFS mean.




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[madwx]

Almost to the point we’ll have to start worrying about who will be measuring the snow at ORD 

[blizzardof96]

47 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

The 12z Ukie is more similar to the GFS.

Here's a look at total snowfall from the 12z UKMET

[blizzardof96]

50 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Quality signal showing up on the GEFS mean.

Looks solid indeed. Hopefully the signal holds.

[Snowstorms]

Just now, blizzardof96 said:

Looks solid indeed. Hopefully the signal holds.

Looks decent for our area too. Might start as rain but could transition over rapidly.  

[blizzardof96]

Looking at the initialization from the 12z GEFS, we can see the two pieces of energy that quasi-phase by new years eve along with lee cyclogenesis (Colorado low formation). Exact details still murky.