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New Years Winter Storm


Chicago Storm
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22 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

One of the main convergent bands so far is setting up near where models have the max totals. Kenosha and Racine Counties east of 94 should have the best overlap of synoptic seeding and lake effect cloud top temps favorable for dendrites. Lake (IL) and far N Cook should do p well, too.

58549925_ScreenShot2022-01-01at4_32_02PM.png.49029fb36edc500261a5e36946dd11b4.png

I’m directly on the lake between Racine and Kenosha. It’s really picked up over the past hour. Big flakes mixing in now. Call me a weenie but this just feels like a good one.


 

4DA34A35-EE9E-4669-A499-315826487CC6.jpeg

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22 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

One of the main convergent bands so far is setting up near where models have the max totals. Kenosha and Racine Counties east of 94 should have the best overlap of synoptic seeding and lake effect cloud top temps favorable for dendrites. Lake (IL) and far N Cook should do p well, too.

58549925_ScreenShot2022-01-01at4_32_02PM.png.49029fb36edc500261a5e36946dd11b4.png

I know there has been talk about the HRRR being overdone, but hopefully latest runs are mostly on the right track.  :snowing:

Here's a shot at 15z tomorrow.

HRRRNIL-prec-ptype-018.png

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This is a vertical cross section directly through the storm from north (left) to south (right) showing a huge difference in temperatures in the whole atmosphere, and the upward vertical velocity areas (pink) above the slanting frontal surface. You can see the temp inversions with the shape of the 0C isotherm, -12C isotherm, -18C isotherm.

DzRrEe3.png 

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5 minutes ago, hlcater said:

Just measured 5.5". Talk about a weenie band right up against the northward cut off of snow totals.

0512 PM     SNOW             1 S MIDWAY              42.08N 91.71W  
01/01/2022  M5.5 INCH        LINN               IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

This your report?

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Just now, Natester said:

0512 PM     SNOW             1 S MIDWAY              42.08N 91.71W  
01/01/2022  M5.5 INCH        LINN               IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

This your report?

Yea haven't seen many others from the CR area so far so figured I'd throw mine in for once.

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I will say I cant really remember a time where the dry air on the north side of a system was overmodeled. Big dry slot coming in and eating at the southern side of snow band sure. But even early this morning higher res guidance had the dry air holding on far longer than it actually did. 

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24 minutes ago, hlcater said:

I will say I cant really remember a time where the dry air on the north side of a system was overmodeled. Big dry slot coming in and eating at the southern side of snow band sure. But even early this morning higher res guidance had the dry air holding on far longer than it actually did. 

Big plot twist. Dry air was overmodeled on north side but undermodeled on south side. No models really showed snow ending here till after 06z. Had few periods this afternoon of drying but filled back in but now seems last band is pulling out. 

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radar looks grim. Heaviest snows for Chi town per IZZI yesterday were progged between  4pm-8pm. Looks rather bleak for that scenario to play out. Hope we can carve out a tad of back end Iowa crumbs in a defo band at some point. Natester needs to post pics so we know it's not just an hallucination. Time for another pour.........

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2 minutes ago, Baum said:

radar looks grim. Heaviest snows for Chi town per IZZI yesterday were progged between  4pm-8pm. Looks rather bleak for that scenario to play out. Hope we can carve out a tad of back end Iowa crumbs in a defo band at some point. Natester needs to post pics so we know it's not just an hallucination. Time for another pour.........

It’s what the models have been showing for quite sometime. Widespread severe weather combined with a primary moisture feed from the Pacific is not an ideal combo. Too much dry air 

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14 minutes ago, Baum said:

radar looks grim. Heaviest snows for Chi town per IZZI yesterday were progged between  4pm-8pm. Looks rather bleak for that scenario to play out. Hope we can carve out a tad of back end Iowa crumbs in a defo band at some point. Natester needs to post pics so we know it's not just an hallucination. Time for another pour.........

Not much left of the defo band.

EDIT: Oh, I think you meant model pics, right?

KDVN - Super-Res Reflectivity Tilt 1, 6_18 PM.png

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10 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

It’s what the models have been showing for quite sometime. Widespread severe weather combined with a primary moisture feed from the Pacific is not an ideal combo. Too much dry air 

Yes.models began showing this on the 12 Z run of Thursday's Euro. The moisture feed argument regarding the gulf was discounted already and is incorrect. A peek at radar shows very little high end convection. Further, the better than expected snows to the west and north minus the dry slot encroaching on Northern Illinois further verifies this as  wrong. Snow events are a complicated business that's why they are so enjoyable when you get a special one. Irregardless, beautiful scene  of white out there on a holiday all the while watching The Ohio State Buckeyes getting housed by the Utes. Perfect wrap on the Christmas season.

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34 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Big plot twist. Dry air was overmodeled on north side but undermodeled on south side. No models really showed snow ending here till after 06z. Had few periods this afternoon of drying but filled back in but now seems last band is pulling out. 

ILX posted this on FB a couple hours ago. Actually hoping they're wrong, would rather break the latest measurable snowfall record than a dusting.

 

Some banding regenersting but nothing really holding up, can't imagine it's going to fill in that greatly over the next 2 1/2 hours.

 

FB_IMG_1641083057344.thumb.jpg.6427433b836d9e0a1828617bbd5bdaf8.jpg

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