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New Years Winter Storm


Chicago Storm
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MCD for southeast Iowa for potential of snows at or over 1 inch an hour (includes Cedar Rapids)

SUMMARY...Occasional 1 in/hr snowfall rates possible into the early
   evening.

   DISCUSSION...Regional radar shows a broad area of precipitation
   extending from portions of central/southeast Iowa into
   northern/central Illinois. Light to moderate snow has been
   persistent across this region for the past several hours, with
   localized/brief periods of heavy snow reported at a few stations, in
   association with broad low-level warm/moist air advection. Earlier,
   a band of moderate to heavy snow was evident across southwest Iowa
   and has since translated into parts of central Iowa. This feature is
   likely in association with mid-level forcing for ascent from a
   short-wave trough traversing the region and associated mid-level
   frontogenesis, albeit weakening somewhat. Forecast soundings
   continue to indicate nearly saturated conditions (e.g., RH values
   exceeding 80-85%) and lift through a 700-800 m thick dendritic layer
   across the region. This will continue to promote the development of
   snow bands and areas of heavy snow with rates approaching 1 in/hr
   into the early evening hours.
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I've been sitting right at the cutoff most of the day, getting a mix of sleet and snow accumulating to about 2". For such dense ratios, the snow is surprisingly dry and not sticking to the trees much.

Funny how winter is finally starting here on January 1st, just like last year.

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17 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

20 degrees here with rippage continuing. Looks like 3 or 4 inches so far.

You always seem to luck out no matter what. Lol. Funny earlier barely had returns over me and it was snowing good and now have a nice band over me and barely anything. Weird system. Ha

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I see LOT finally raised the white flag on their end with this event being a true warning criteria snowfall:

.WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY  
  
   
TONIGHT  
PATCHY BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN THE EVENING. SNOW.  
SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION 2 TO  
6 INCHES.
BLUSTERY. LOWS 15 TO 19.

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Baum said:

I see LOT finally raised the white flag on their end with this event being a true warning criteria snowfall:

.WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY  
  
   
TONIGHT  
PATCHY BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN THE EVENING. SNOW.  
SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION 2 TO  
6 INCHES.
BLUSTERY. LOWS 15 TO 19.

 

 

 

Warning is still for 5-9" in the metro.

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Just now, Chicago Storm said:

That's just accumulation for the night period.

Warning is still for 5-9" in the metro.

Dupage county. We were 4"-8" in the previous package, and 5"-9" when warning was originally issue. Though, through following models and board chatter it was becoming pretty clear the higher numbers were going to be difficult to achieve. Perhaps we can still get that 6" number. I'm an optimist by nature.

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Just now, Baum said:

Dupage county. We were 4"-8" in the previous package, and 5"-9" when warning was originally issue. Though, through following models and board chatter it was becoming pretty clear the higher numbers were going to be difficult to achieve. Perhaps we can still get that 6" number. I'm an optimist by nature.

I don't see 6 happening but who knows.  I do know that it's been snowing under the heaviest returns here for 3 hours or so and have just over 0.5.  So it would take a lot to get to 6

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One of the main convergent bands so far is setting up near where models have the max totals. Kenosha and Racine Counties east of 94 should have the best overlap of synoptic seeding and lake effect cloud top temps favorable for dendrites. Lake (IL) and far N Cook should do p well, too.

58549925_ScreenShot2022-01-01at4_32_02PM.png.49029fb36edc500261a5e36946dd11b4.png

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