ChiTownSnow Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 1 minute ago, Baum said: LOT update. Subtle tip toes backwards: SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING ANY IMPACTS OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION ON POLEWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SEVERAL GOOD-SIZED HOLES NOTED IN THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI. THAT SAID, UPRIGHT CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ON REGION SOUNDINGS (AND WE CAN SEE THE CONVECTIVE NATURE MANIFESTED IN THE RADAR RETURNS), AND HAVE ALSO SEEN SOME DEGREE OF THIS FILLING IN OVER THE LAST HOUR OF SO WITH THE ARRIVAL OF BETTER JET DYNAMICS. HRRR/RAP COMBO HAVE CERTAINLY TRENDED DOWNWARDS A BIT IN THE QPF OUTPUT AWAY FROM THE LAKE, AND ENVISION THERE WILL BE SOME "HOLES" IN THE SNOWFALL TOTALS IN BETWEEN THE DOMINANT F-GEN FORCING AND AND ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT. NO MEANINGFUL CHANGES TO THE SNOW TOTALS AT THIS TIME THOUGH, WITH OUR 4-7" INLAND STILL LOOKING OKAY WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR THE LAKE. WE'LL SEE IF ANY DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS NEED TO BE MADE TO OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES AWAY FROM THE LAKE WITH THE FULL PM UPDATE. Would agree with the northern counties "Boon, McHenry" with adjustment down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Radar looks grim 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Guess I'll go 8-10" here. Obviously counting on the lake to come though sufficiently to get to that. Btw, morning water temps are 43 Chicago shore and 42 at the crib. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Radar trends for Cedar Rapids look promising. Light snow here, was moderate for about 15-20 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 The last couple HRRR runs have dropped our total down again, but it is too dry. It shows no accumulating snow til nearly 2pm, but the snow began at 11am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNiño Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 8 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Radar looks grim I can never tell if you’re being serious or sarcastic lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Finally a started here south of KDKB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, TheNiño said: I can never tell if you’re being serious or sarcastic lol He's worked hard at that. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 There's been several ob sites in southern/southeastern IA over the past hour or two with vis of 1/8, so it's really ripping to be sure in the heaviest snow. We've been bouncing back and forth (obv estimating) between 1/4 and 1/2 mile type vis here. Haven't measure anything but looks like a good inch down already. Looking upstream there's heavy snow falling as far west as extreme northeast KS, so still a long ways to go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 15 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Radar looks grim Weird. Joe texted me earlier saying radar looks solid and he wasn't too worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: There's been several ob sites in southern/southeastern IA over the past hour or two with vis of 1/8, so it's really ripping to be sure in the heaviest snow. We've been bouncing back and forth (obv estimating) between 1/4 and 1/2 mile type vis here. Haven't measure anything but looks like a good inch down already. Looking upstream there's heavy snow falling as far west as extreme northeast KS, so still a long ways to go. do you want to get flamed for making an optimistic post and using real ground truth to support it? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Just now, Baum said: do you want to get flamed for making an optimistic post and using real ground truth to support it? How dare he! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 1, 2022 Author Share Posted January 1, 2022 6 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: Weird. Joe texted me earlier saying radar looks solid and he wasn't too worried. i'm getting my umbrella out shortly. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Flakeage underway. The pessimism in here is palpable. At least it’s snowing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 I just want to know how much snow the RAP shows for Cedar Rapids 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Just now, tuanis said: Flakeage underway. The pessimism in here is palpable. At least it’s snowing. Get good use out of the hot tub today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 1 minute ago, mimillman said: I just want to know how much snow the RAP shows for Cedar Rapids About 2.5 inches. The 16z HRRR has only an inch for Cedar Rapids. Both will bust low, especially the HRRR. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 1, 2022 Author Share Posted January 1, 2022 Started snowing here about 20 minutes ago. Everything is well dusted already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Currently drizzly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 You know, I would be really surprised if Cedar Rapids got more snow than the Chicago suburbs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 13 minutes ago, mimillman said: Get good use out of the hot tub today! It’s def in the cards, planning to get the whole fam out there. Snow is sticking straight away and blowing off the roof a bit. Not too wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 This is so nice. Performance aside I'm glad we got at least something. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 FWIW, the latest HRRR is too warm at places like DKB, ARR and DPA but is too cold at ORD and MDW. DKB: 25 HRRR 27 ARR: 29 HRRR 31 DPA: 28 HRRR 32 ORD: 34 HRRR 31 MDW: 37 HRRR 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Now it's snowing. Just need to cool off a little bit so it can stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Been a very light mood snow falling in Boone county for about an hour. Hopefully it’ll pick up a bit shortly. The dry holes out west from an hour ago seem to be filling in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 It is snowing here currently. DAB+ so far. Should be just on the right side of the cut off? Time will tell. Flake size is very small at my location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 6 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: FWIW, the latest HRRR is too warm at places like DKB, ARR and DPA but is too cold at ORD and MDW. DKB: 25 HRRR 27 ARR: 29 HRRR 31 DPA: 28 HRRR 32 ORD: 34 HRRR 31 MDW: 37 HRRR 33 More of a T/Td spread at ORD/MDW than the other sites, so some room to cool. Also will help as CAA increases to help counteract the warmth coming off the 40+ degree lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Light mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Bottom layer of this is going to be heavy. Pavement already wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNiño Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Party has started here in extreme SE WI on the lake. Here goes nuthin’ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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