A-L-E-K Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Aaaaand the light snow has begun here. Let the games begin. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 1 minute ago, cyclone77 said: Aaaaand the light snow has begun here. Let the games begin. Go Notre Dame! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Bump or two away from dampening duster status https://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/animations/NEXLABdpdt-00Z-20220102_NAMUS_prec_ptype-20-100.gif 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Daytime weekend points for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Just now, A-L-E-K said: Daytime weekend points for sure ++ New Years Day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Several locations in southeast/southern IA and northern MO AOB 1/2 mile. Keokuk down to 1/4 mile. Model QPF consensus here is generally around 0.4". Should be able to easily fluff that up to 5"+. If we can sneak in a little more QPF, and LSR end up north of 14:1 6-7" still on the table. Def looks like the southern portion of the DVN cwa will get in on the 6-7"+ snows, with model QPF 0.5"+. LSR may not quite be as high, but should still be well above 10:1. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Moisture starved 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Noticing some drying trends on the radar in northern MO. Hoping that will fill back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 1, 2022 Author Share Posted January 1, 2022 Numerous small/weak streamers coming in off the lake already. Should help the saturation process a bit.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Numerous small/weak streamers coming in off the lake already. Should help the saturation process a bit. . Confirmed..had a brief period of snow which led to a quick dusting in spots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 24 minutes ago, Jonger said: Moisture starved Doesn't bother me. We should be in for a nice powdery snowfall, after a season of all wet snowfalls so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Both NAM and GFS indicate the bleeding seems to have stopped at least. Maybe wishful thinking, but I have come this far so why not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 4-6” part of the 4-8” call looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 1, 2022 Author Share Posted January 1, 2022 Both NAM and GFS indicate the bleeding seems to have stopped at least. Maybe wishful thinking, but I have come this far so why not.Both have also shifted the heavier axis of precip that has been centered around the tri-state area (IA/IL/MO border region) eastward a bit.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 1, 2022 Author Share Posted January 1, 2022 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toro99 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 SREF plumes mean went from 6” to 2.5” for GRR in about 12 hours. Total dud, and gives confidence to our consistently bearish office heading into winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlauderdal Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Both have also shifted the heavier axis of precip that has been centered around the tri-state area (IA/IL/MO border region) eastward a bit..My travelers advisory prediction still in play albeit low chance..ord should break 3 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Ripping pretty nicely here now, prob about 1/2 mile vis. Flake size is decent; not pixies, not fatties. Already adding up fairly quickly. Several 1/4 mile heavy snow obs upstream, so intensity probably gonna continue to uptick. EDIT: Centerville in southern IA the winner at the moment with 1/8 mile vis 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 1, 2022 Author Share Posted January 1, 2022 Ripping pretty nicely here now, prob about 1/2 mile vis. Flake size is decent; not pixies, not fatties. Already adding up fairly quickly. Several 1/4 mile heavy snow obs upstream, so intensity probably gonna continue to uptick.Given things just recently started, I’m guessing you’ll see an increase in flakes size as time goes on. Was checking some webcams to get an idea of things, and it’s ripping in Galesburg with big flakes, along with many other areas.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 One problem I see with using the blended approach or average of all model approach as we closer to "nowcast" time, is that this method ignores the latest and greatest model guidence.. It's a good method when you're a day or two away but not a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 RAP and HRRR only giving Cedar Rapids 2 to 2.5 inches of snow. EDIT: Spitting flurries here now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Snowing at a good clip in Peoria but flake size not great. Might limit accumulation potential. Snow overall drier than I expected though. Blowing around. Anyone noticing that massive dry slot developing in MO on radar? Lol. Models don't seem to be grasping that well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Heavy snow 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 MO/IA dry slot says "Happy New Year!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 16 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Snowing at a good clip in Peoria but flake size not great. Might limit accumulation potential. Snow overall drier than I expected though. Blowing around. Anyone noticing that massive dry slot developing in MO on radar? Lol. Models don't seem to be grasping that well. from ILX: BUT THERE ARE CONCERNS FOR HIGHER QPF. A NUMBER OF SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BEEFED UP QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE I-55 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 We’ve been spitting pellets all morning so should pick up quickly once we get going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Seems to be some banding setting up to my SE that hopefully will interact with the feed off the lake when it arrives. Also The orientation looks to be more West to East as opposed to SW to NE. So hopefully that helps with QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 6 minutes ago, DaveNay said: MO/IA dry slot says "Happy New Year!" There's still some pretty decent obs down where it looks sort of dry on radar. Think the radar hole over that area is affecting the way it looks, as much of the precip is emanating from lower in the atmosphere than it was earlier, so the DVN and other radar beams are slightly above the majority of the snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 LOT update. Subtle tip toes backwards: SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING ANY IMPACTS OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION ON POLEWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SEVERAL GOOD-SIZED HOLES NOTED IN THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI. THAT SAID, UPRIGHT CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ON REGION SOUNDINGS (AND WE CAN SEE THE CONVECTIVE NATURE MANIFESTED IN THE RADAR RETURNS), AND HAVE ALSO SEEN SOME DEGREE OF THIS FILLING IN OVER THE LAST HOUR OF SO WITH THE ARRIVAL OF BETTER JET DYNAMICS. HRRR/RAP COMBO HAVE CERTAINLY TRENDED DOWNWARDS A BIT IN THE QPF OUTPUT AWAY FROM THE LAKE, AND ENVISION THERE WILL BE SOME "HOLES" IN THE SNOWFALL TOTALS IN BETWEEN THE DOMINANT F-GEN FORCING AND AND ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT. NO MEANINGFUL CHANGES TO THE SNOW TOTALS AT THIS TIME THOUGH, WITH OUR 4-7" INLAND STILL LOOKING OKAY WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR THE LAKE. WE'LL SEE IF ANY DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS NEED TO BE MADE TO OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES AWAY FROM THE LAKE WITH THE FULL PM UPDATE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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