TheNiño Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Sorry for the dumb question but I’m a novice trying to learn. Is the concern right now because there is increased convection on the southern end which will rob the northern (snowy) parts of the system of moisture? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, TheNiño said: Sorry for the dumb question but I’m a novice trying to learn. Is the concern right now because there is increased convection on the southern end which will rob the northern (snowy) parts of the system of moisture? Yes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Just now, TheNiño said: Sorry for the dumb question but I’m a novice trying to learn. Is the concern right now because there is increased convection on the southern end which will rob the northern (snowy) parts of the system of moisture? Not a dumb question. This is the debate. In this case this does not seem to be an issue according to some. Which, me a novice also would agree. Just seems were riding a weakening wave as it moves east. Thus lowering totals as it moves east. Not unusual. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 1, 2022 Author Share Posted January 1, 2022 Not sure on this one..I get the whole pac moisture feed in cold sector. But isn't there still is a warm sector to this with some sort of transport of moisture into to the cold sector, albeit short lived? Each storm system is obviously different in that regard. Depends on origin of the trough/wave, eventual ejection location and upstream setup.Some extreme example estimates, but ones I know offhand would be… GHD1, which was 95%/5% Gulf/Pacific moisture influenced, GHD2 was 25%/75% Gulf/Pacific. This current system I’d give an estimate of 15%/85% Gulf/Pacific.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 The whole discussion about the moisture source for this system is like obsessing over which processor KFC used for the chicken you're being served. Regardless of whether it came from Tyson or Perdue, the meal will still be pretty mediocre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Happy new year! (For those on CST) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 1, 2022 Author Share Posted January 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, Powerball said: The whole discussion about the moisture source for this system is like obsessing over which processor KFC used for the chicken you're being served. Regardless of whether it came from Tyson or Perdue, the meal will still be pretty mediocre. Pretty much. The issues revolve around the state of the ejecting wave, among other things. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Happy New Year to all. Here’s to hoping for an overperformer, but expecting lesser amounts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 New euro definitely came in underwhelming. Happy 2022. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Not the big one. Next one could be. Chin up it’ll look like winter tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Overall this system is kind of disappointing considering the potential it had. Big system ejecting from the southwest along a very nice baroclinic zone. Kind of felt like after such a horrific December it would break with a big dog. This one came close, but in the end it'll sort of be a forgettable event. On the plus side it'll be a nice solid 4-7" type of event for the majority in the main swath outside the lake enhanced areas. Riding the 5-7" call for here/QC, but I think 5" is more likely than 7". 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 I'm just happy we're not counting every day of the new snow drought record anymore. Cheers to a hopefully good year of chasing and model-whoring gang! Life wouldn't be the same without you 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 2 hours ago, ChiTownSnow said: Not sure on this one..I get the whole pac moisture feed in cold sector. But isn't there still is a warm sector to this with some sort of transport of moisture into to the cold sector, albeit short lived? Science.. we don’t care about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 32 minutes ago, mimillman said: Not the big one. Next one could be. Chin up it’ll look like winter tomorrow Gonna be solid winter conditions in the city later tomorrow as the lake enhancement and stronger winds kick in. I definitely think some models are underplaying the lake component. Not that that should be too surprising as many of them are not really geared for that kind of thing. As far as I can tell, water temps are 40+ not just near the IL shore but pretty much all the way across the lake and also pretty far north as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Gonna be solid winter conditions in the city later tomorrow as the lake enhancement and stronger winds kick in. I definitely think some models are underplaying the lake component. Not that that should be too surprising as many of them are not really geared for that kind of thing. As far as I can tell, water temps are 40+ not just near the IL shore but pretty much all the way across the lake and also pretty far north as well. Gotta be nice to always have the lake available to supplement the synoptic storm. Many times it doesn't, but there's always hope that it contributes some. Out here far from the lake we get one shot, take what the synoptic gives you and like it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 1 minute ago, cyclone77 said: Gotta be nice to always have the lake available to supplement the synoptic storm. Many times it doesn't, but there's always hope that it contributes some. Out here far from the lake we get one shot, take what the synoptic gives you and like it. Yes but it giveth and taketh away. Early season can be especially tough for areas too close. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 46 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Gotta be nice to always have the lake available to supplement the synoptic storm. Many times it doesn't, but there's always hope that it contributes some. Out here far from the lake we get one shot, take what the synoptic gives you and like it. Blessing and a curse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Now this, this would be quite something. My apt in IC gets 10" while my house in CR (where I am now) gets nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Snow amounts in southeastern Iowa have definitely been trending upwards the past 12-18 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 19 minutes ago, hlcater said: Now this, this would be quite something. My apt in IC gets 10" while my house in CR (where I am now) gets nothing. Natester's nightmare scenario of a 2018 redux for the CR area is nearly manifested in that model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Radar looks p rough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 40 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Radar looks p rough not a disaster. Despite the more subdued concern regarding amounts the models consistency over 4 day period in the track of the main swath of snow has been fairly impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Models are really turding out over here. On the HRRR, the Omaha to Des Moines to Cedar Rapids to Dubuque corridor has fallen off the cliff on the north edge. Cedar Rapids is down to 2" while the others are <1". With that little snow, from only 0.1" precip, it may be difficult to even measure . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 6 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Models are really turding out over here. On the HRRR, the Omaha to Des Moines to Cedar Rapids to Dubuque corridor has fallen off the cliff on the north edge. Cedar Rapids is down to 2" while the others are <1". With that little snow, from only 0.1" precip, it may be difficult to even measure . natester has kept us well aware of model output for CR 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Latest HRRR runs really putting GHD to shame. Mammoth amounts of 3" for the burbs. Best hope that LES isn't the usual HRRR bullshit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Lowering my call to 1 inch of snow. However, I expect to get nothing just like on 11/25/2018. Next! EDIT: Nam 3k jumped back north and gives CR over 6 inches. Not sure if I believe that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Doesn’t look like I’ll break 3 inches out here. But I’m pulling for Cook to do well with LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 been snowing lightly here. coating most colder surfaces. perhaps bodes well for some lake feed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 I very highly doubt that O'Hare will hit 5 inches of snow let alone go above that. Models only show a few inches for Chicago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, Natester said: I very highly doubt that O'Hare will hit 5 inches of snow let alone go above that. Models only show a few inches for Chicago. Idk..latest NAM looks like it'll be close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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