sbnwx85 Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Just now, Hoosier said: Certainly sweating this one a bit. Regardless, looking like a good storm here or nearby. I'm certainly mentally prepared for a cold rain here...hopefully followed by some lake-effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Certainly sweating this one a bit. Regardless, looking like a good storm here or nearby. Rainer 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 8 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said: Monster run on the GFS. Lake response looks good, too. This is where the warm December is going to pay off. Lake temps in the 40s as we hit New Years day are warmer than average. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Would be nice to see the euro carry on with another juiced storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 16 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Certainly sweating this one a bit. Regardless, looking like a good storm here or nearby. 96 hours plenty of time either direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Glad we've put the boring futility talk behind us. Bring on the bigguns. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 26 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Rainer Which is worse than a DAB for those keeping score on the ALEK speak. Or he may need a wellness check Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Finals calls in a day or two? Or now if you're Alek? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 3 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: Finals calls in a day or two? Or now if you're Alek? Or 3 days.. lots to go still. Anything on the table imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 7 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: Finals calls in a day or two? Or now if you're Alek? Way too early for that; remember February 2020? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Alek usually goes final call 4 or 5 days out, so I'm assuming rainer is the final call. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 7 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said: Or 3 days.. lots to go still. Anything on the table imo 3 minutes ago, MidwestChaser said: Way too early for that; remember February 2020? I thought that's the whole point? I mean there's the final call, and then there's like the real final call. I'm talking about the preliminary guess that is at least semi-informed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said: chefs kiss. Looks familiar 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Goat post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 At this point I'd want to be anywhere but in the sweet spot. With the exception of maybe Tennessee. Or Hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 31 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Goat post Have to give reverent cudos for that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 5 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said: Whoa, the Euro is coming in hot and nw this run. Not to be negative, but verbatim I'm not a big fan of that northeast/southwest tilted zone of heavy convection in the warm sector. Many times it seems to cause the cold sector zone of precip to underperform. Long way to go so maybe that won't be as much of an issue in the future. That being said, it's great to have another system to track already. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Much like the EPS and its ensembles, the 18z gefs is pretty much all over the place some don't even have much of a storm at all. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Just now, cyclone77 said: Not to be negative, but verbatim I'm not a big fan of that northeast/southwest tilted zone of heavy convection in the warm sector. Many times it seems to cause the cold sector zone of precip to underperform. Long way to go so maybe that won't be as much of an issue in the future. That being said, it's great to have another system to track already. Very good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 28, 2021 Author Share Posted December 28, 2021 3 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Not to be negative, but verbatim I'm not a big fan of that northeast/southwest tilted zone of heavy convection in the warm sector. Many times it seems to cause the cold sector zone of precip to underperform. Long way to go so maybe that won't be as much of an issue in the future. That being said, it's great to have another system to track already. Would be very true in many cases. However with this one, moisture transport is Pac supplied, not Gulf. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 28, 2021 Author Share Posted December 28, 2021 5 minutes ago, Stebo said: Much like the EPS and its ensembles, the 18z gefs is pretty much all over the place some don't even have much of a storm at all. EPS are far different than the GEFS. EPS spread is far less, and most are noteworthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 2 hours ago, hlcater said: DVN is bullish Nichols probably retired and in a home still finding a way to write AFDs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 GHD II was more PAC moisture IIRC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 29, 2021 Author Share Posted December 29, 2021 7 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: GHD II was more PAC moisture IIRC Both Pac and Gulf, but much more-so Gulf. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 18z Euro 90 hours some big changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 Whelp never good when you're living on the se edge of the heavy snow band and models start trending stronger and nw. Lol. Gfs definitely bumped nw on 18z run with sfc low. Still not as strong as euro but maybe a bit more consolidation at the sfc. Still 5 days out and a lot can change but definitely a nail biter here. My gut is saying DVN to LOT will cash in big on this. I was thinking that this may trend se with that arctic baroclinic zone bleeding se and the weakish low but we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 29, 2021 Author Share Posted December 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: 18z Euro 90 hours some big changes Less phased and more strung out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Less phased and more strung out. Yep, tbh looking at the 12z eps and the 18z GEFS there was a massive shift in the spaghetti plots of amplifying that trough out west. When everyone jumps all at once so fast run to run like that, it gives me pause. This run of the Euro trended back to less amplified out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 1 hour ago, cyclone77 said: Not to be negative, but verbatim I'm not a big fan of that northeast/southwest tilted zone of heavy convection in the warm sector. Many times it seems to cause the cold sector zone of precip to underperform. Long way to go so maybe that won't be as much of an issue in the future. That being said, it's great to have another system to track already. 1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said: Would be very true in many cases. However with this one, moisture transport is Pac supplied, not Gulf. I'm going to sort of take a middle ground between you two. I'd say keep an eye on it but don't be overly concerned for the reason that Chi Storm mentioned. The convection in that area probably isn't going to go nuts anyway as instability looks to be lacking to some extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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