hlcater Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 HRRR comes in way north and at the top of the QPF envelope. Not really sure what to think. The HRRR has consistently been on the north/stronger end of potential track solutions, and even at this range, I don't think that is something that can be entirely discounted anymore given the consistency that has been seen. But then again, the tendency for higher res guidance to be north in longer ranges is omnipresent. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Gino Izzi with a nice succinct on point AFD for this AM. Clearly hits on Alek's lakeshore call: " NEAR THE LAKE IN NORTHEAST IL, AS WARMING MARINE LAYER COULD CUT DOWN ON ACCUMS INITIALLY AND IF THE LAKE EFFECT DOESN'T RESULT IN MUCH ACCUMULATIONS, THEN THAT AREA COULD END UP WITH LIGHTER TOTALS. CONVERSELY, IF THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT REACHES ITS FULL POTENTIAL, THAT AREA COULD END UP WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS" time to make a call and will go middle of the 4"-8" envelope with 6". Shame this thing is sort of booking. That said, breaking ORD's New Years Day snow record the same winter season we set the late snowfall futility record and all within one week will be frosting on the trees so to speak. And as LOT points out:"WINTER IS OFFICIALLY HERE!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Best in the game, I'm gonna bust high if anything Some of u (joe) should be taking notes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 31, 2021 Author Share Posted December 31, 2021 Best in the game, I'm gonna bust high if anything Some of u (joe) should be taking notesi didn’t make a call.but pretty sure rainer is gonna bust low.. 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Last gift under the tree... WWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Plumes are bimodal with one camp in the 2-4” range and the other camp in the 7-9” range 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Pretty rude I’m up for work before 8am for the first time in a year and I’m not in a Winter Storm Watch. Rooting for a half inch of sleet at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Since I'm awake...12z HRRR put the snow axis a bit south of 6z. Drier in northern IL outside of lake-effect/enhancement. 6z 12z 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Noticing the same southerly shift, again. Not gonna lie, I'd love to see this thing shift back south again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 9 minutes ago, Frog Town said: Noticing the same southerly shift, again. Not gonna lie, I'd love to see this thing shift back south again. That would leave Cedar Rapids with nothing. Not going to happen. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 31, 2021 Author Share Posted December 31, 2021 Drier/weaker trend won’t be denied.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Lowering my call to 4 inches. Hoping I don't bust high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 When is full sampling of models Or has that already happened? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago916 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Tons more moisture robbing from those Ohio Valley storms https://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/animations/NEXLABdpdt-12Z-20220102_NAMMW_prec_precacc-50-100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 31, 2021 Author Share Posted December 31, 2021 Tons more moisture robbing from those Ohio Valley stormshttps://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/animations/NEXLABdpdt-12Z-20220102_NAMMW_prec_precacc-50-100.gifThis is a Pac moisture driven setup for the cold side. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Looses it's moisture feed as it moves further east, and as the ULL moves further away from the deformation band. I was hoping that secondary woud help continusely feeding it moisture, but doesn't look like that'll happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 It's a dud 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Just now, A-L-E-K said: It's a dud Still can give us 2-4 + lake enhancement. I wouldn't call it a full dud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Looks like a long duration 6+ event. As I have nothing to do but get drunk/be hungover, I am going to enjoy this one 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 3.5" First call 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 31, 2021 Author Share Posted December 31, 2021 If you take a look a loft, we’ve seen some noticeable changes the past few days, and you can see why we’re at the point that we are.With placement of the PV lobe in Canada, the ridge is has trended flatter and confluence has increased across the northern Great Lakes into the Northeast. Additionally and the bigger change has been the trough orientation and individual wave/disturbance trajectory/interaction has changed across the West, before and after ejection of the main wave. Much less positive interaction and less phasing as well. (At one point a few days ago, some guidance had multiple waves well phased, with the main wave ejecting into the Plains amped and negative tilt).. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Just now, Cary67 said: 3.5" First call 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 51 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Drier/weaker trend won’t be denied. . Blegh, I was hoping we’d stopped the bleed at 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlauderdal Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 It's a dudTravelers Advisory at this rate 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 12z ICON trended back a bit north in terms of the snow shield, now in line with the rest of the models. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 7 minutes ago, Natester said: 12z ICON trended back a bit north in terms of the snow shield, now in line with the rest of the models. I’ve seen a lot of model hugging in my time, but I have to give you props for your steadfast dedication to this pile of shit that is the ICON. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 ^ wasn't the icon the first to sniff out the southeast weaker strung out POS trend? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 9 minutes ago, Baum said: ^ wasn't the icon the first to sniff out the southeast weaker strung out POS trend? That’s been a trend for four seasons now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 12z GFS seems to be too far north with the snow totals, hasn't budged since 0z. However, it's a bit drier than 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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