New Years Winter Storm

[Natester]

I should also mention that the 12z ICON also had this system amped up with a very similar track to the 18z NAM.

[Frog Town]

The SE hasn't ended and I suspect this things ends up sheared and weaker as the models ingest the Dakota High.  Don't get your hopes up on the model output.  This thing will become a mid Ohio special before you know.  Don't ignore the trends.  

[michsnowfreak]

8 minutes ago, LansingWeather said:

Im back in MI for the next few weeks.

One thing I am a bit confused on is GRR, they say they arent going to issue a WSWatch because the totals look under warning criteria.

But they also say 4-6", shouldn't they still issue a watch to get the public on notice?

 

 

GRR and DTX are notorious for being gunshy on any kind of Winter storm watch. I saw graphic that it's been almost 2 years since they issued 1. That does not mean there has not been a warning criteria snow, they just always love to go with the advisory then upgrade to a warning as needed.

[Baum]

1 minute ago, Frog Town said:

The SE hasn't ended and I suspect this things ends up sheared and weaker as the models ingest the Dakota High.  Don't get your hopes up on the model output.  This thing will become a mid Ohio special before you know.  Don't ignore the trends.  

wrong thread.

[Sciascia]

7 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

I've learned to be happy with a 5 inch total

 

[Natester]

2 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

The SE hasn't ended and I suspect this things ends up sheared and weaker as the models ingest the Dakota High.  Don't get your hopes up on the model output.  This thing will become a mid Ohio special before you know.  Don't ignore the trends.  

Very highly doubt that will happen.

[mimillman]

LOT just issued watches

[LansingWeather]

2 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

GRR and DTX are notorious for being gunshy on any kind of Winter storm watch. I saw graphic that it's been almost 2 years since they issued 1. That does not mean there has not been a warning criteria snow, they just always love to go with the advisory then upgrade to a warning as needed.

This is so true and it drives me insane. The point of a watch isnt to upgrade to a warning, its to highlight the possibility of impactful snows, you can always go down to an advisory if it looks like under 6 inches in 12 hours is very likely.

 

There has been hardly any snow, at least recently. so a 6 inch advisory seems a bad taste call IMO.

[ChiTownSnow]

1 minute ago, Sciascia said:

 

Ha.. It's more about the trajectory and duration of the event

[Frog Town]

3 minutes ago, Baum said:

wrong thread.

Denial is a River in Africa my friend....

[wegoweather]

5 minutes ago, mimillman said:

LOT just issued watches

Message:	NOAA-NWS-ALERTS-IL1261CB32631C.WinterStormWatch.1263DC011240IL.LOTWSWLOT.103c7bc075e65d55d974b3b26277e43b from [email protected]
Sent:	14:47 CST on 12-30-2021
Effective:	09:00 CST on 01-01-2021
Expires:	06:00 CST on 01-02-2022
Event: Winter Storm Watch Alert: ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Steady, blowing snow and dangerous travel possible. Total snow accumulations greater than 6 inches and northeasterly wind gusts in excess of 40 mph are possible. * WHERE...Lake IL, DuPage, Northern Cook, Central Cook and Southern Cook Counties. * WHEN...From Saturday morning through late Saturday night. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Widespread blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility, especially along the Lake Michigan shoreline. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The steadiest snow rates appear most likely between noon Saturday and midnight Sunday. Instructions: Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. Target Area: Central Cook DuPage Lake Northern Cook Southern Cook

 

Event:	Winter Storm Watch
Alert:	...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Steady, blowing snow and dangerous travel possible. Total snow accumulations greater than 6 inches and northeasterly wind gusts in excess of 35 mph are possible. * WHERE...Portions of north central and northeast Illinois. * WHEN...From Saturday morning through Saturday evening. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Widespread blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility, especially in open areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The steadiest snow rates appear most likely between noon Saturday and midnight Sunday.
Instructions:	Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.
Target Area:	Boone De Kalb Eastern Will Grundy Kane Kendall La Salle Lee McHenry Northern Will Ogle Southern Will Winnebago

[Baum]

1 minute ago, Frog Town said:

Denial is a River in Africa my friend....

sincerely, doesn't this belong in Buckeye's thread: "Pray for snow for Ohio" it's been an ongoing thread for years. It's where all the Ohioans congregate.

[Frog Town]

Hahah..

I see where you're coming from.  Sincerely think this ends up even south of me or over me but weaker.  It just has that feel and we'll see in tonight's 0Z data.  I think we are seeing hints of it in the Secondary that the models have been showing.  We shall see.    

[Natester]

18z ICON waaay south.  Not good.

[Radtechwxman]

Well might be getting ice storm part 2 instead of a snowstorm if nam is correct. Better than cold rain. Curious if the waa will win out against the dense arctic air mass pressing se on Sat. Eventually the cold air will win out but how quick is the million dollar question 

[Chicago Storm]

18z ICON waaay south.  Not good.

another useless model.


.

[ILSNOW]

snippets from KLOT

Saturday morning, snow
appears poised to spread quickly from south to north across much
of northern Illinois and far northwestern Indiana and last through
the remainder of the day. The steadiest snow looks to remain
within a 10-12 hour period from roughly noon Saturday to midnight
Sunday, with snow rates of 0.5"/hr prevailing. Heavier snow rates
approaching 1"/hr may develop within transient frontogenetical
bands as well as along the Illinois shoreline of Lake Michigan
where sufficiently cool temperatures will make the marine airmass
unstable within a favorable northeasterly wind trajectory. After
midnight, snow will taper from west to east except along the Lake
Michigan shore where lake enhancement will continue through
daybreak Sunday.

Snow ratios look to start near 10:1 Saturday afternoon and increase
toward 18:1 Saturday night as the low-level temperature profile
cools.

The highest confidence area for hitting
warning-level impacts (e.g. where travel would be discouraged
entirely) is actually in Lake County (IL), eastern DuPage County,
and all of Cook County where there appears to be an increasing
chance that lake-enhanced snow rates of 1"/hr will overlap with
blustery northeast winds, leading to low visibility.

 

[Baum]

1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said:

another useless model.


.

when i  saw ICON scared me. Thought the virus thread reappeared.

[Natester]

Fun fact: 18z ICON gives Cedar Rapids ZERO snow.

[madwx]

first and final call of 1" here.   look to just be on the northern fringes of this.   Congrats to all to the south on significant snows

[hlcater]

11 minutes ago, Natester said:

Fun fact: 18z ICON gives Cedar Rapids ZERO snow.

the ICON sucks my guy

[Kaner88]

14 minutes ago, Natester said:

Fun fact: 18z ICON gives Cedar Rapids ZERO snow.

Korean model looking pretty solid though

[michsnowfreak]

31 minutes ago, LansingWeather said:

This is so true and it drives me insane. The point of a watch isnt to upgrade to a warning, its to highlight the possibility of impactful snows, you can always go down to an advisory if it looks like under 6 inches in 12 hours is very likely.

 

There has been hardly any snow, at least recently. so a 6 inch advisory seems a bad taste call IMO.

Actually adding to the discussion, they are always generous with advisories so it really seems silly and probably confuses the public. 1 to 3" snowfall snowfall gets an advisory usually usually. 4 to 7" snowfall? Let's call that an advisory too. Model shows 6 to 10", let's say 4 to 8" with an advisory and then upgrade to a warning if needed.  We have had like 4 advisories already this season and they have all had vastly different outcomes. 

[Natester]

18z RGEM ticked south just slightly, not as drastic as the ICON.  Still nets Cedar Rapids 5-6 inches of snow.

[Harry Perry]

33 minutes ago, LansingWeather said:

This is so true and it drives me insane. The point of a watch isnt to upgrade to a warning, its to highlight the possibility of impactful snows, you can always go down to an advisory if it looks like under 6 inches in 12 hours is very likely.

 

There has been hardly any snow, at least recently. so a 6 inch advisory seems a bad taste call IMO.

It gets old. Many times in years past, model output would show 6-8” sometimes even as much as 10” inches of snow within a 24 hour period. Never a watch issued, only an advisory within 6-10 hours of the snow beginning. Snow starts, gets heavy… causes severe disruption in travel/commerce… GRR decides to upgrade select counties to a warning as the snow is ending.. that’s right ENDING. Has happened nearly every time. One time it never happened, just ended up with 7” of snow in about 10 hours with only an advisory. Really makes me scratch my head. I don’t get it. 
 

Seems the days of a Winter Storm Watch 24-48 hours out turning to a warning 12-24 hours out are long gone around here, and citizen’s always state “i didn’t know we were going to get this much snow!”, “Its terrible out there, who forecasted this?” right in the middle of the event. 
 

Coming from a safety standpoint, it’s unacceptable. Warn the public. “Roll the maps”.  

[hlcater]

I didnt even know there was a Korean model

[Cartier God]

ill be home in grosse pointe for this event so naturally im mclovin the south trend

[Hoosier]

No watch here, but am fairly confident in 6"+.  Even if thermals/precip type are an issue early on (which I'm not convinced of), the lake enhancement/effect should deliver and push totals over 6"

[AWMT30]

Will be very interested for the 00z runs tonight especially for Lower Michigan. You would hope the NWS offices here do the right thing tomorrow if trends stay like they are. 

[michsnowfreak]

6 minutes ago, Harry Perry said:

It gets old. Many times in years past, model output would show 6-8” sometimes even as much as 10” inches of snow within a 24 hour period. Never a watch issued, only an advisory within 6-10 hours of the snow beginning. Snow starts, gets heavy… causes severe disruption in travel/commerce… GRR decides to upgrade select counties to a warning as the snow is ending.. that’s right ENDING. Has happened nearly every time. One time it never happened, just ended up with 7” of snow in about 10 hours with only an advisory. Really makes me scratch my head. I don’t get it. 
 

Seems the days of a Winter Storm Watch 24-48 hours out turning to a warning 12-24 hours out are long gone around here, and citizen’s always state “i didn’t know we were going to get this much snow!”, “Its terrible out there, who forecasted this?” right in the middle of the event. 
 

Coming from a safety standpoint, it’s unacceptable. Warn the public. “Roll the maps”.  

I have seen Grand Rapids avoid a warning or watch when it's imminent with some excuse like, think this model's overdone, or it's gonna be a long enough duration to reach warning criteria, etc. Then they will turn around and issue another advisory for random Lake squalls that will merely dust much of the area outside the belts.