ChiTownSnow Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 7 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I could argue 6-10", highest near the lake. I could, but I decline at this time Plumes have a Mean qpf of 0.75 at ORD. But has some of that falling as a mix or rain which brings down the snow total mean. If it stays all snow I would agree 6-10 possible with the higher ratio snow falling at backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Or u can go all out like the AccuWeather map.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CANNOTDIVIDEBY0 Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 8 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said: Or u can go all out like the AccuWeather map.. I'm sold. 12 inches it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 AccuWeather or as I call them Inaccuweather is an embarrassment to the meteorology community Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 4 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: By the way, ORD snow measurements will be in the hands of yours truly from 20z Sat - 4z Sun. . Barb redux incoming. You both move just as slow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 14 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: AccuWeather or as I call them Inaccuweather is an embarrassment to the meteorology community Succ-u-wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Not getting my hopes up on the HRRR. Still amps the system up like the NAMs. So unless the NAMS, the RAP and the HRRR cave or the globals catch on to this I'm not getting my hopes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Just now, Natester said: Not getting my hopes up on the HRRR. Still amps the system up like the NAMs. Can only imagine what the DGEX would have shown with this system, RIP 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 30, 2021 Author Share Posted December 30, 2021 4 hours ago, ChiTownSnow said: I want my free car dammit... Throw me a bone. Didn't know places still did that nonsense, until I saw Walter E Smithe has one going for Feb 13th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Didn't know places still did that nonsense, until I saw Walter E Smithe has one going for Feb 13th. I was just kidding..i didn't know if they still did that stuff either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 30, 2021 Author Share Posted December 30, 2021 I was just kidding..i didn't know if they still did that stuff either.I did come across one just now actually.A jeweler with locations in the suburbs is offering money back on purchases from late Nov/early Dec, if 6”+ falls on NYD.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 5 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: I did come across one just now actually. A jeweler with locations in the suburbs is offering money back on purchases from late Nov/early Dec, if 6”+ falls on NYD. . Might be close.. I'm sure they have insurance for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 NAM coming southeast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 30, 2021 Author Share Posted December 30, 2021 NAM coming southeastleast surprising thing of the day.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, hlcater said: NAM coming southeast Also not as amped up. Still gives CR decent snows though unless it trends even more southeast. I predict the 21z RAP to cave and trend weaker and southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 5 minutes ago, hlcater said: NAM coming southeast Not quite as amped up, but still juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CANNOTDIVIDEBY0 Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Not quite as amped up, but still juicy. Very juicy indeed. Seems to be showing some sort of lake enhancement as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Also, the NAM 3k shows a HUGE band of sleet through Kansas and Missouri. Also, NAM 3k has a really narrow band of siggy ice, with Peoria in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago916 Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 More negative tilt to the secondary wave as well so far? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 is this where the 18Z NAM becomes my model of choice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Actually the NAM is really juiced for N IL. A foot down at 60 and still snowing back to kansas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Think I'm probably going to throw in the towel for a 6" snow for CR. Thinking the max band ends up somwhere near washington, IA through evanston or so. Gonna go with a first call of 4" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 We need a something to eject that secondary wave out earlier to catch up with the primary. Not sure on all the tech speak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Best run yet of any model for the immediate Chicago metro. Alek sweats. Joe with a sigh of relief 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LansingWeather Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Im back in MI for the next few weeks. One thing I am a bit confused on is GRR, they say they arent going to issue a WSWatch because the totals look under warning criteria. But they also say 4-6", shouldn't they still issue a watch to get the public on notice? Quote Our focus then is then on the snow event from Saturday (New Year`s Day) afternoon through Saturday night. This system is looking a bit less impressive for our area, as compared to the last couple of days with regards to snow amounts. There is good model/ensemble consensus at this time that a good chunk of the area will see 3 to 6 inches of snow, with maybe the northern third of the area seeing less amounts. That said, we are thinking this looks to be a solid advisory event at this time. We feel good with those amounts at this time given the expected interaction of the various ingredients/dynamics. One thing that leads us to believe that this will not be a heavy snow event is that the mid/upper level system is not closed off as it moves through our area. There is some decent jet lift for a couple of time periods. However, the first jet lift event early Sat, a RRQ of a departing jet streak will be when we don`t have the coldest of air in place yet, and moisture is not real deep. The snow will start Saturday afternoon as we get the warm air aloft overrunning the increasing colder air at the sfc. The best snow looks to move in prior to 00z Sun, and then depart by 06z Sun. This is the result of a stronger bout of mid level fgen near the 850 mb low that moves by just to our south fairly quickly. We could see some decent snow rates, but they will be relatively short in duration. Some snow will then linger until just after sunrise on Sunday when the upper trough axis pushes through. Another factor that gives us confidence in solid advisory snowfall, is that mid level mixing rates over much of the area are 2-3 g/kg during the heart of the event would support 4-6 inches via the Garcia method. Another factor to mention here is that lake enhancement will not be a factor on this side of the lake with an offshore NE flow. If models were to trend up with amounts in the next 12 hours (stronger forcing), a Winter Storm Watch may be needed. However at this time, we anticipate that an advisory would be most appropriate as we get closer to the event. Thank you for the collaboration regarding this IWX and DTX. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 30, 2021 Author Share Posted December 30, 2021 1 minute ago, Thundersnow12 said: Best run yet of any model for the immediate Chicago metro. Alek sweats. Joe with a sigh of relief when you know, you know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, hlcater said: Think I'm probably going to throw in the towel for a 6" snow for CR. Thinking the max band ends up somwhere near washington, IA through evanston or so. Gonna go with a first call of 4" Worse if the snow misses CR entirely like it did on 11/25/18. Doubtful that will happen I wouldn't be surprised if we only got 4-5 inches from this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Just now, Natester said: Worse if the snow misses CR entirely like it did on 11/25/18. Doubtful that will happen I wouldn't be surprised if we only got 4-5 inches from this. That won't happen. I think our clearest avenue to 6" is more QPF with the system in general (ie stronger/wider band of snowfall) rather than a track shift. There is a very strong consensus on a SE IA thru Chicago track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Just now, Natester said: Worse if the snow misses CR entirely like it did on 11/25/18. Doubtful that will happen I wouldn't be surprised if we only got 4-5 inches from this. I've learned to be happy with a 5 inch total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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