Chicago Storm Posted December 30, 2021 Author Share Posted December 30, 2021 By the way, ORD snow measurements will be in the hands of yours truly from 20z Sat - 4z Sun.. 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 By the way, ORD snow measurements will be in the hands of yours truly from 20z Sat - 4z Sun..The New Year's Day snowfall record is 5". Don't screw up under pressure. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 3 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: By the way, ORD snow measurements will be in the hands of yours truly from 20z Sat - 4z Sun. . I want my free car dammit... Throw me a bone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 6 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: By the way, ORD snow measurements will be in the hands of yours truly from 20z Sat - 4z Sun. . We’ll get you an 18” cylinder that sits in dry ice so that not a flake is lost in the measuring. Seriously though, possibly super-obvious-answer question: What is the process for measuring snow at ORD? Is there a area specifically designated for it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 @blizzardof96 Latest RDPS is cooler than 06z for the GTA. However, 850's and sfc temperatures are quite marginal. I agree it will start as rain though but how quickly it transitions over is the real question. Those cold NNE winds can be underestimated by models sometimes so perhaps we could cool down rapidly. Might be a long light snow event after the initial thump moves through. Still not overly optimistic yet. But I'm thinking 4" away from the Lake and <5cm (2") near the Lake. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 I'll take the NAM qpf with the GFS track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 15z RAP snow totals (kuchera method). Also the precip type map at 18z Jan 1, 2022. Chicago doesn't get screwed out of the snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 52 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: The New Year's Day snowfall record is 5". Don't screw up under pressure. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Under pressure...April 15, 2014. Detroit cruised into 2nd place for snowiest all time winters in late February or early March. Truly an epic Winter in the Southern lakes. However they were just a touch short of the 1880-81 record. That night, 1 to 3" of snow was forecast and 1.9" needed to break the record. And it was very publicized in the media. What a nightmare for the observer. You get a 2" snowfall what's going to happen, if the record is broken you'll have people accusing you of purposely breaking it, if the record is just missed you'll have people accusing you of purposely just missing it. Luckily like most of our things that Winter the snowfall over performed at 3.2" so it was an easy record clincher. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 1 hour ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Being near the cutoff in so many models sucks, hopefully the cold overperforms I don't know if it is so much the cold more more so the orientation of the precipitation shield. There will likely be a thin area of ice in the transition zone as well. GFS and GEM are locked up with each other. The nam, like many times, is a far outlier but of course still never like to see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 46 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: @blizzardof96 Latest RDPS is cooler than 06z for the GTA. However, 850's and sfc temperatures are quite marginal. I agree it will start as rain though but how quickly it transitions over is the real question. Those cold NNE winds can be underestimated by models sometimes so perhaps we could cool down rapidly. Might be a long light snow event after the initial thump moves through. Still not overly optimistic yet. But I'm thinking 4" away from the Lake and <5cm (2") near the Lake. Latest 12z GDPS gives the entire GTA snowfall, with the heavier amounts in the northern sections (5-6”) and less by Lake Ontario (3-4”). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 23 minutes ago, Natester said: 15z RAP snow totals (kuchera method). Also the precip type map at 18z Jan 1, 2022. Chicago doesn't get screwed out of the snow. Wouldn't trust any output from rap or hrrr at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 12z UK (10:1) 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 1 hour ago, Snowstorms said: @blizzardof96 Latest RDPS is cooler than 06z for the GTA. However, 850's and sfc temperatures are quite marginal. I agree it will start as rain though but how quickly it transitions over is the real question. Those cold NNE winds can be underestimated by models sometimes so perhaps we could cool down rapidly. Might be a long light snow event after the initial thump moves through. Still not overly optimistic yet. But I'm thinking 4" away from the Lake and <5cm (2") near the Lake. Yep, the rain/snow transition time will be key. That will be dictated by the track of the surface low. A spatial mean of the 12z GFS/GDPS/RDPS/UKMET/6z ECMWF supports a general 5-10cm south of the 401 and 10-15cm north of the 401. Will see if that holds and whether model consensus starts to build over the next 24-36hrs. I think your forecast is a pretty good starting point with some room to increase if consensus builds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 The NAMs are easy tosses, they are too amplified. Everything else except the ukie is south, and the ukie is worthless as well. Locally my concern is we hang onto a bit of low level warmth but I do think the models are underdoing the CAA a bit especially with the strong high pressing in from the north. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 12z euro coming in ass 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Call looking $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 1 minute ago, Sciascia said: Next! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said: Under pressure...April 15, 2014. Detroit cruised into 2nd place for snowiest all time winters in late February or early March. Truly an epic Winter in the Southern lakes. However they were just a touch short of the 1880-81 record. That night, 1 to 3" of snow was forecast and 1.9" needed to break the record. And it was very publicized in the media. What a nightmare for the observer. You get a 2" snowfall what's going to happen, if the record is broken you'll have people accusing you of purposely breaking it, if the record is just missed you'll have people accusing you of purposely just missing it. Luckily like most of our things that Winter the snowfall over performed at 3.2" so it was an easy record clincher. I remember you being the local celebrity at the time, lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 7 minutes ago, Sciascia said: Post the full storm when it's available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 You know what would really be bad is if the euro verified with the subdued snow totals. Just as bad as the storm missing here entirely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 16 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Call looking $$ gonna bust high. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 22 minutes ago, hlcater said: 12z euro coming in ass 23 minutes ago, hlcater said: 12z euro coming in ass No problem just undergoing ERC for this monster 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 First call here is 5 inches unless other models join the euro in terms of lowering snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 I’ll go with 4-8” across the Chicago metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 3-7. Highest north and near lake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Stupid question, but what does busting high mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Just now, Natester said: Stupid question, but what does busting high mean? Busting high on a prediction, in Price is Right terms, means you overbid. So if Alek gets 4 inches when he predicted 4.5, he busted high. If he gets 5 when he predicted 4.5, then he’ll bust low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Just now, Sciascia said: Busting high on a prediction, in Price is Right terms, means you overbid. So if Alek gets 4 inches when he predicted 4.5, he busted high. If he gets 5 when he predicted 4.5, then he’ll bust low. Ah ok. I thought it was the other way around lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 14 minutes ago, mimillman said: I’ll go with 4-8” across the Chicago metro. I could argue 6-10", highest near the lake. I could, but I decline at this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now