Thundersnow12 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 7 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: You haven’t taken a look at things if you’re making that statement. Again, it’s heavily Pac moisture driven. . Maybe they’ll get it after you say it 10 more times lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Here's a loop to illustrate this, showing pwats and low-mid level winds. Look at where the trajectories are from. >0.5" pwats on the wintry side of the system are pretty decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 1, 2022 Author Share Posted January 1, 2022 Maybe they’ll get it after you say it 10 more times lol Might have to go all sparty and post a bunch of maps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 I am with Joe on this, plus the convection isn't guaranteed to be widespread. If anything there is a window of this being more than forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 1, 2022 Author Share Posted January 1, 2022 Here's a loop to illustrate this, showing pwats and low-mid level winds. Look at where the trajectories are from. >0.5" pwats on the wintry side of the system are pretty decentThank you.Like I said, mostly Pac driven moisture.Can also been seen on the multiple WV imagery levels, 850mb dew points, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 16 minutes ago, hlcater said: idk about yall but im all in on the SREF Qpf mean has been pretty consistent for ORD. What has changed over time, has been less mixing issues and mostly all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 17 minutes ago, nwohweather said: Absolutely not toss worthy. Hard wish casting by a pro right here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said: Qpf mean has been pretty consistent for ORD. What has changed over time, has been less mixing issues and mostly all snow I was joking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Wasn't really looking for snow to begin tonight...Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 0z HRRR still gives Cedar Rapids a decent amount of snow even if the moderate/heavy snow only lasts a few hours. HRRR shows 4-5 inches for Cedar Rapids. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Gonna be another pound town run w/the lake contribution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Plumes have a 4-6” look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 NAM is coming in…*shakes dice* *Throws dice* Drier! 00z: 18z: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Both of the NAMs still bullish on amounts. Slightly amped too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 8 minutes ago, Sciascia said: NAM is coming in…*shakes dice* *Throws dice* Drier! 00z: 18z: highest amounts in Mchenry easy toss. 4-8 envelope seems unchanged. And 00Z NAM less than 24 hrs from storm initiation is known for huge hiccups this is barely a breath. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 5 minutes ago, Baum said: highest amounts in Mchenry easy toss. 4-8 envelope seems unchanged. And 00Z NAM less than 24 hrs from storm initiation is known for huge hiccups this is barely a breath. agreed 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 2 hours ago, nwohweather said: Tomorrows southern severe outbreak is going to play a huge role on the snowy side of things. Just too likely that intense convection is going to rob the backside of the storm of moisture, 3-5” except back towards the IA/MO/IL border is probably best bet. Yep just like Dec10th -11th severe outbreak. Upper Midwest suffered..oh wait 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 9 minutes ago, Baum said: highest amounts in Mchenry easy toss. 4-8 envelope seems unchanged. And 00Z NAM less than 24 hrs from storm initiation is known for huge hiccups this is barely a breath. Damn I hate it when your right.lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 2 hours ago, IWXwx said: You may be correct, but by the time winds swing to favor LaPorte and Berrien, moisture goes bye bye. That’s all I needed to hear! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 4.5 d3 call looking $$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 12 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: 4.5 d3 call looking $$$ Not a bad d3 final call, if only it weren’t for the d4 final call 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Northbrook jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 If we want to fuel the convection debate even more, LOT actually made mention of it in the evening update. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: If we want to fuel the convection debate even more, LOT actually made mention of it in the evening update. Big brother Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sielicki Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 I'm so ready to be disappointed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, mimillman said: Big brother Paragraph is below for anyone interested. This doesn't have to be a binary yes/no thing as far as convection having an impact. It can be no/little impact all the way up to big impact. For reasons that have been outlined, don't think it's *as* big of a problem as it could be in other types of setups. The overnight shift will continue a more thorough assessment of the upcoming snow event and evaluation of headlines including their timing. There will be a lot of convection in the warm sector Saturday morning into early afternoon, and that will have some robbing moisture transport effect and potentially is why some guidance is bringing that northern snowfall gradient more into the CWA. However, ample synoptic forcing for the afternoon and evening for snow -- heavy at times -- and then the lake enhanced support into far northeast Illinois for the evening and overnight, all continues to look in-line with the forecast. MTF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 ^not that I'm a pro by any stretch, but just the fact it is not a classic wound up storm it is not drawing a huge moisture feed from the GOM. Caveat, one of the reasons were not seeing some of the higher totals some models implied earlier on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 pretty clear the 12Z Euro from yesterday was the first to sniff out the fading moisture as this heads east. Tonight's runs continue to fade totals in LOT zones including GFS and NAM. Looking more like 3"-6" event with little lake enhancement. Still be a nice event for holiday as opposed to 30's and sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Not sure on this one..I get the whole pac moisture feed in cold sector. But isn't there still is a warm sector to this with some sort of transport of moisture into to the cold sector, albeit short lived? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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