New Years Winter Storm

[Baum]

2 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

That’s been a trend for four seasons now. 

I rode that trend to over 40" in a 6 week period last year. And multiple back to back 6" events as well. 

[Snowstorms]

@blizzardof96 Not feeling confident yet on snowfall amounts across the GTA. RDPS is south and weak, NAM 3km is north while the GFS/HRRR are nudged in between. The difference is more notable on the vort maps and the trough orientation and dig. At least we can be certain it'll most likely end up as snow lol. 

I think 5-10cm as of now would be a reasonable call. 

[blizzardof96]

1 minute ago, Snowstorms said:

@blizzardof96 Not feeling confident yet on snowfall amounts across the GTA. RDPS is south and weak, NAM 3km is north while the GFS/HRRR are nudged in between. The difference is more notable on the vort maps and the trough orientation and dig. At least we can be certain it'll most likely end up as snow lol. 

I think 5-10cm as of now would be a reasonable call. 

Here's the spread in model snowfall output for YYZ. The variation is pretty ridiculous given the fact that snow is expected to start falling in just over 30hrs from now. I agree, I think 5-10cm is reasonable for the GTA. Some communities across S ON may see 10-15cm but too early to know where/if that might set up. I'm not convinced that we see a whiff south like the ECM/RDPS are showing -- they may be overcorrecting.

[Radtechwxman]

Remember when we were like this can only get better as it approaches? 2022 was like hold my beer. Happy new year! Lol

[Natester]

15z RAP north of the 12z HRRR in terms of snow totals.  Not sure if I believe that.  However, the 12z RGEM gave CR about 5 inches of snow.  Toss?  Have to wait for the 18z HRRR to see if it stays south or shifts back slightly north.

[blizzardof96]

1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

If you take a look a loft, we’ve seen some noticeable changes the past few days, and you can see why we’re at the point that we are.

With placement of the PV lobe in Canada, the ridge is has trended flatter and confluence has increased across the northern Great Lakes into the Northeast.

Additionally and the bigger change has been the trough orientation and individual wave/disturbance trajectory/interaction has changed across the West, before and after ejection of the main wave. Much less positive interaction and less phasing as well. (At one point a few days ago, some guidance had multiple waves well phased, with the main wave ejecting into the Plains amped and negative tilt).






.

Any thoughts on the 12z HRRR track?

[ChiTownSnow]

LOT snow map seems pretty bullish 4 to 8 across the metro plus lake enhancement

https://www.weather.gov/lot/weatherstory

 

[Chicago Storm]

Any thoughts on the 12z HRRR track?

Differences with the HRRR (And RAP) can likely be attributed to how the HRRR (And RAP) handle things across the West. The main wave ejecting is more amped, and maybe slightly negative tilt while ejecting into the Plains… While at the same time, the main through and kicker wave is more neutral tilt. Most other guidance is neutral tilt with ejecting wave and positive tilt with kicker trough/wave. Goes to show that every little bit counts.

(Hard to see image, but best I could do).



.

[Baum]

11 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

LOT snow map seems pretty bullish 4 to 8 across the metro plus lake enhancement

https://www.weather.gov/lot/weatherstory

 

mid morning LOT update:

"NO CHANGES TO TOMORROW'S FORECAST AS WE AWAIT THE REST OF THE  
MODEL SUITE, BUT THE GOING MESSAGE OF AN IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM  
REMAINS ON TRACK. SEEING SOME SIGNS OF SOME EARLY LAKE-ENHANCEMENT  
THAT MAY EVEN START OF AS DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS PARTS OF  
NE ILLINOIS BEFORE THE DEEPER SATURATION AND ASCENT ARRIVES  
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS"

[ChiTownSnow]

3 minutes ago, Baum said:

mid morning LOT update:

"NO CHANGES TO TOMORROW'S FORECAST AS WE AWAIT THE REST OF THE  
MODEL SUITE, BUT THE GOING MESSAGE OF AN IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM  
REMAINS ON TRACK. SEEING SOME SIGNS OF SOME EARLY LAKE-ENHANCEMENT  
THAT MAY EVEN START OF AS DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS PARTS OF  
NE ILLINOIS BEFORE THE DEEPER SATURATION AND ASCENT ARRIVES  
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS"

Yeah I guess waiting for the rest of the model runs before making changes? Surprised to they still posted the map instead of waiting.

 

[mimillman]

2 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

Yeah I guess waiting for the rest of the model runs before making changes? Surprised to they still posted the map instead of waiting.

 

4-8” is still a very very reasonable (and responsible) call 

[Baum]

6 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

Yeah I guess waiting for the rest of the model runs before making changes? Surprised to they still posted the map instead of waiting.

 

I would not expect any changes.

[Harry Perry]

After reading GRR’s AFD this morning, I couldn’t help but chuckle. They must lurk in these forums… 

 

- Snow still expected Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning -

We are in the time frame (beyond 24 hrs from the event) where a
watch issuance would be expected if it was warranted. At this time
it does not seem warranted based on the latest guidance. Advisory
and Warning decisions are typically made in the 12 to 30 hour time
frame and we are moving into that zone today. We will likely make
headline decisions (warnings or advisories) later today. Given the
onset of snow is in the afternoon on Saturday we will likely
make the headline decisions this afternoon. So, no headlines will
be issued on this shift. Upstream offices are sticking with their
watches, so even upstream where precipitation begins earlier they
are sticking with the current headlines. Bottom line is we think
this continues to look like a solid advisory for much of our area
and potentially high end advisory over portions of the south half
of our forecast area. If we are expecting advisories, which we
are, watches are not warranted.

 

[mimillman]

lol

[Hoosier]

Here's a fun little list.  Biggest holiday/sort-of-holiday snows in met/astronomical winter for Chicago:

 

Christmas day:  5.1" - 1950

New Year's day:  5.0" - 1918

Valentine's day:  8.3" - 1990

St. Patrick's day:  4.1" - 1984

[Powerball]

2 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

That’s been a trend for [s]four seasons[/s] a decade now. 

fyp.

[Hoosier]

I'm still liking 6+ here, fwiw

[Powerball]

4 hours ago, sbnwx85 said:

Since I'm awake...12z HRRR put the snow axis a bit south of 6z. Drier in northern IL outside of lake-effect/enhancement.

6z

12z

It would be very on-brand for Detroit to see its amounts increase as this trends to yet another strung out POS.

Ho-hum...

[Natester]

12z euro unchanged in totals (i'm not a subscriber to Pivotal Weather Plus, too expensive).  Can someone with a Pivotal Weather Plus subscription post the kuchera method map?

[ILSNOW]

4 minutes ago, Natester said:

12z euro unchanged in totals (i'm not a subscriber to Pivotal Weather Plus, too expensive).  Can someone with a Pivotal Weather Plus subscription post the kuchera method map?

[Natester]

1 minute ago, ILSNOW said:

Looks reasonable albeit a bit dry.  Still within my call of 4 inches although there is a chance i'll bust low.

[mimillman]

11 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I'm still liking 6+ here, fwiw

I’d be surprised if you didn’t go warning with the next update 

[ChiTownSnow]

1 hour ago, Baum said:

I would not expect any changes.

Plumes steady at 5 at ORD with a cluster higher

[mimillman]

Side note but next Thursday starting to look interesting 

[Sciascia]

15 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Side note but next Thursday starting to look interesting 

The Canadian model gives Alek almost a foot and a half in 24hrs

[Snowstorms]

2 hours ago, blizzardof96 said:

Here's the spread in model snowfall output for YYZ. The variation is pretty ridiculous given the fact that snow is expected to start falling in just over 30hrs from now. I agree, I think 5-10cm is reasonable for the GTA. Some communities across S ON may see 10-15cm but too early to know where/if that might set up. I'm not convinced that we see a whiff south like the ECM/RDPS are showing -- they may be overcorrecting.

The trend seems to be weaker and further south right now. A large portion of the energy gets wrapped up further south into a potential secondary low. We'll see what tonights runs yield. I agree with the bold, it is ridiculous. Any reason why you feel we are seeing such high volatility among the models?  

5-10cm does seem like a good bet for now. At the very least it should bring us closer to 50cm (20") for the season. 

Edit: Must be tough for meteorologists like yourself to issue a proper forecast right now.

[Hoosier]

38 minutes ago, mimillman said:

I’d be surprised if you didn’t go warning with the next update 

Going warning in my head even if it doesn't happen officially 

They say you have to smell the rain to get the best snows.  Looks like that may be the case with a rain/snow line not too far south.  Other than some spits of drizzle/light rain early on, I expect almost all of it to be snow.  One thing I am wondering is how long it will take from snow onset for temps to dip below freezing.  The first few hours could be a little unproductive with accumulation.

[Sciascia]

Given the WWA’s immediately to my north in Wisconsin’s border counties, I’m expecting to lose my “storm watch” status for an advisory. But hopefully anyone here in “Chicagoland” does well.

[madwx]

2 minutes ago, Sciascia said:

Given the WWA’s immediately to my north in Wisconsin’s border counties, I’m expecting to lose my “storm watch” status for an advisory. But hopefully anyone here in “Chicagoland” does well.

the WWA in wisconsin is for the freezing drizzle/rain threat today, not for tomorrow's storm

[madwx]

1 hour ago, ILSNOW said:

honing in on my 1" call and I'm excited