New Years Winter Storm

[blizzardof96]

Can really see the differences in phasing between the GEFS and GEPS as soon as hour 54-60. The GEFS has the northern wave digging further south which allows for more interaction with the southern energy. The GEPS has less digging and more separation between the two pieces of energy.

[Chicago Storm]

12z Euro is very close to being something special.


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[Kaner88]

12z ECMWF has 0.44" QPF in Omaha, falling amidst surface temps in the single digits, goodness

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

12z Euro is very close to being something special.


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Hitting the lake effect in Chicago this run 

[Chicago Storm]

2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

12z Euro is very close to being something special.


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To add to this... If you're just looking at the colorful snow map, you'll be confused. Check out 500mb.

[Hoosier]

8 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Hitting the lake effect in Chicago this run 

That would easily be double digits near the lake when factoring in improving ratios by the latter part of the storm.  

There have been better lake enhanced setups than this, but it's pretty decent and I see the lake locally adding several inches to the synoptic totals.

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

That would easily be double digits near the lake when factoring in improving ratios by the latter part of the storm.  

There have been better lake enhanced setups than this, but it's pretty decent and I see the lake locally adding several inches to the synoptic totals.

Agree. This is the type of storm where @A-L-E-K will get a dab on the front end then 3-6 on the back 9.

[Sciascia]

10 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

To add to this... If you're just looking at the colorful snow map, you'll be confused. Check out 500mb.

Isobars looking like regular bars on St. Patrick’s Day: Pretty packed

[mimillman]

This is a positive run to run change…

 

[blizzardof96]

50 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Looks decent for our area too. Might start as rain but could transition over rapidly.  

Agreed. If the 12z GFS/ECMWF surface low tracks are close to being correct, we see the front move through on Saturday which ushers in NNE winds at the surface --- continuing through Sunday. That is a recipe for quite a bit of frozen precip across the GTA (snow-freezing rain-ice pellet mix).

[Hoosier]

12 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Agree. This is the type of storm where @A-L-E-K will get a dab on the front end then 3-6 on the back 9.

Even the front end could be good, but it's a bit too early to lock that in as it wouldn't take a huge north shift to put the better snows just out of his area.  

As far as the lake enhancement/effect, water temps are currently in the low 40s.  I don't expect much of a change between now and Jan 1st given that the current airmass isn't all that cold.  So using a water temp in the low 40s and progged 850 mb temps, it eventually results in delta T getting into the upper teens C.  It's too bad that the airmass isn't a bit colder but that is plenty good for some decent enhancement.

[mimillman]

3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Even the front end could be good, but it's a bit too early to lock that in as it wouldn't take a huge north shift to put the better snows just out of his area.  

As far as the lake enhancement/effect, water temps are currently in the low 40s.  I don't expect much of a change between now and Jan 1st given that the current airmass isn't all that cold.  So using a water temp in the low 40s and progged 850 mb temps, it eventually results in delta T getting into the upper teens C.  It's too bad that the airmass isn't a bit colder but that is plenty good for some decent enhancement.

Agree

[blizzardof96]

12z EPS

[Chicago Storm]

You want an amped solution?

The 18z NAM is yours.


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[A-L-E-K]

 

 

[NEILwxbo]

This NAM run might have to go on the fridge 

[Natester]

Chicago get's the shaft according to the Kuchera method.

[Hoosier]

8 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

You want an amped solution?

The 18z NAM is yours.


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I was expecting rain flirting with Milwaukee when I read that post.  Good thing it's not that bad.

[Chicago Storm]

I was expecting rain flirting with Milwaukee when I read that post.  Good thing it's not that bad.

PV lobe in Canada is the savior.


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[A-L-E-K]

1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

I was expecting rain flirting with Milwaukee when I read that post.  Good thing it's not that bad.

February will b rockin

[Hoosier]

I feel like a top rule in modelology is to expect an amped 18z NAM run at some point leading up to a storm.

[ILSNOW]

snippets from KLOT

An early look at forecast thermal profiles
reveals an excellent and deep DGZ with prolific lift, which will
encourage fluffy snow ratios of 15:1 or higher. When paired with a
strong pressure gradient bolstered by a 1025+ mb high pressure
system across the Dakotas, there will be a threat for blustery
northeast wind with blowing snow and low visibility within the
deformation shield.

Interestingly, the 12Z deterministic guidance appears to exhibit
excellent agreement showing the track of the low from roughly Tulsa,
Oklahoma to Cincinnati, Ohio with the aforementioned band of
accumulating snow plastered through the heart of our forecast
area. With such a track, cooling 850mb temperatures and
northeasterly winds will be more than sufficient for enhancement
to snow rates along the Lake Michigan shore with low (if not very
low) visibility. Snow would taper overnight into Sunday, with
lake effect snow persisting in northwestern Indiana through Sunday
afternoon.

there does appear to be increasing
consistency among all members that the swath of snow will at least
touch our forecast area (about 27% of the 51 members drop >6" of
snow somewhere in northern Illinois and northwest Indiana). While
confidence continues to increase that a winter storm will impact
at least part of our area, we continue to urge caution with
premature snow forecasts. The message remains that the threat for
travel disruptions via air and land on Saturday continues to
increase.

[Radtechwxman]

Well not digging the 18z nam at all. Hello cold rain. Yay. Not. Just need that sfc low to nudge a bit more se and I can cash in. Forever riding the rain/snow line here. Hoping goofus can be right but not getting my hopes up. 

[AWMT30]

The GFS shockingly has done well lately 

[Natester]

ICON still south in terms of snow, a bit more south than last run.  Toss.

[AWMT30]

4 minutes ago, Natester said:

ICON still south, a bit more south than last run.  Toss.

ICON chasing the southern convection with the LP no need to worry. 

[michsnowfreak]

18 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Well not digging the 18z nam at all. Hello cold rain. Yay. Not. Just need that sfc low to nudge a bit more se and I can cash in. Forever riding the rain/snow line here. Hoping goofus can be right but not getting my hopes up. 

If you want to talk about not getting hopes up, I don't think it's ever a good idea to bank on the 84 hour nam, whether it shows a favorable or unfavorable solution for you.

[Natester]

18z RGEM jumped back north to join the NAM, EURO and GFS in terms of snow.

[Radtechwxman]

19 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

If you want to talk about not getting hopes up, I don't think it's ever a good idea to bank on the 84 hour nam, whether it shows a favorable or unfavorable solution for you.

Valid point. Still it's long range. Nice to see a spread the wealth system for many of us. Just hoping not to be on the edge for a change. Plus would be awesome to have back to back NYD storms. Had big ice storm last year and would be awesome to follow it with big snowstorm. Here's to hoping. 

[Natester]

18z GFS very slightly drier than 12z GFS.  Placement of snow unchanged.