New Years Winter Storm

[Thundersnow12]

10 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Less phased and more strung out.

https://media4.giphy.com/media/CmbOLk68Y8WJ78hiSd/giphy.gif?cid=8fc3c8970ultaito81c9t5q1fnwg6r8wy6x70nukes0liqsd&rid=giphy.gif&ct=g

[Frog Town]

Really gotta watch that High to the north.  Models have been off all season with the cold air pressing.  When it finally does happen, it's gonna be a game changer.  Curious if the MJO will nudge it down a bit. 

[Chicago Storm]

Really gotta watch that High to the north.  Models have been off all season with the cold air pressing.  When it finally does happen, it's gonna be a game changer.  Curious if the MJO will nudge it down a bit. 

that’s not how it works.


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[Frog Town]

That definitely was misleading.  The MJO nudge wasn't in reference to this system, but more for future reference with the mean trough and the release of the cold in general.  

[Baum]

first call:

 

[Stebo]

There are several things that are dictating this, the location of the lead wave, when/if it will phase, where the block across canada sets up, and how strong the front is with that system that travels across Canada.

[Natester]

0z NAM 12k a lot weaker and south.

[ChiTownSnow]

6 minutes ago, Natester said:

0z NAM 12k a lot weaker and south.

Long range NAM tho.. take it with grain of salt

[Chicago Storm]

There are several things that are dictating this, the location of the lead wave, when/if it will phase, where the block across canada sets up, and how strong the front is with that system that travels across Canada.

There’s even more to it than that.

Obviously the lobe in Canada acting as a block and associated confluence, as you mentioned. …But also the fact there are three different waves coming into the west. There’s the initial wave, which is sort of cut off near the Cali Coast, and then two additional waves that dive south out of Canada, which will interact with said Cali wave.

So in the end, there’s probably at least 4 different moving parts to watch.


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[Hoosier]

10 minutes ago, Natester said:

0z NAM 12k a lot weaker and south.

imo, that run would be satisfactory enough if it went out farther.  Upper levels don't look terrible.  And a nice moisture train by the end.

[Stebo]

31 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

imo, that run would be satisfactory enough if it went out farther.  Upper levels don't look terrible.  And a nice moisture train by the end.

Yeah that would be a nice long duration event 

[Frog Town]

Thinking back to when the NAM picked up the current system at 4 days out, it was pretty spot on.  Gives more credence IMO

[sbnwx85]

Gotta keep reminding myself not to get overly excited about anything for another 48 hours.

[Stebo]

3 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

Gotta keep reminding myself not to get overly excited about anything for another 48 hours.

I mean we are in a position to say there will be a storm, it is just a question of who is getting what.

[Hoosier]

Believe it or not, the last time there was a 3" snowfall on New Year's Day in Chicago was back in 1984 (recall that the bulk of the storm in 1999 occurred on the 2nd).  And the calendar day record may be lower than you'd think... 5.0"

[ChiTownSnow]

3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Believe it or not, the last time there was a 3" snowfall on New Year's Day in Chicago was back in 1984 (recall that the bulk of the storm in 1999 occurred on the 2nd).  And the calendar day record may be lower than you'd think... 5.0"

I keep thinking of those "if it snows 3 inches or more on new years day" deals

[blizzardof96]

I’m a bit skeptical that given this upper level configuration:

We end up with a surface low this far north and well developed:

To me, a sfc low track further south would fit the UL pattern better. Whether the UL setup on the 0z GFS is correct is another question entirely. Lots of moving parts for the models to put together — will probably take some time to iron out.

[ILSNOW]

0z GFS

[Chicago Storm]

I’m a bit skeptical that given this upper level configuration:

We end up with a surface low this far north and well developed:


To me, a sfc low track further south would fit the UL pattern better. Whether the UL setup on the 0z GFS is correct is another question entirely. Lots of moving parts for the models to put together — will probably take some time to iron out.

The surface reflection, and whole storm for that matter, is a product of the Cali cut off wave that ejects out and interacts with the lead wave diving through the West. Really isn’t all that wrapped up or strong of a system, which is not surprising given what’s shown aloft.


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[ILSNOW]

0z CMC weaker and south

[hawkeye_wx]

The trend tonight is for the Canadian upper energy to be more suppressive and keep the midwest storm farther south.  

[Stevo6899]

40 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The trend tonight is for the Canadian upper energy to be more suppressive and keep the midwest storm farther south.  

Seems we've been stuck in this for like 4 years now. The lack of cross country bowling ball systems, or even a half phased storm has been incredible. Never thought id say id be okay with a stonger nw trend to start just to have a respectable storm somewhere other than the upper midwest.

[Hoosier]

53 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

0z CMC weaker and south

Heck of a lake enhancement signal on there.

[chuckster2012]

Well, models took away the final southern wave which now leaves me high and dry Sunday. Oh boy!!

[Hoosier]

The 00z Euro may be a little cranked up.

[hlcater]

Losing confidence in the weekend storm for my area. A whiff south seems most likely.

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

0Z ECMWF has it fall apart after a while

[Radtechwxman]

Honestly thought that run was going to have higher accumulations a bit further south because sfc low seemed a little more south and maybe slightly less amped. But still buried Iowa. Euro not wanting to budge. Curious to see which model caves first. GFS or Euro. 

[Baum]

still on track. It's all about not being in the "sweet spot" at this juncture. Board points for no one inquiring or posting " that run doesn't  matter as it has yet to be sampled" but the chants of "south and weaker" or "strung out POS" have been there from the start.  As usual just a snippet from RC's AFD at LOT can save you a lot of time if your in the Northern Illinois area:

"THE ENSEMBLE MEANS OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS HAVE A VERY GOOD SIGNAL  
FOR A SWATH OF SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW INCLUDING A GOOD CHUNK OF  
THE CWA, ESPECIALLY NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. OVERALL,  
THE NBM FORECAST FAVORS THE FARTHER NORTH MORE IMPACTFUL CAMPS, SO  
CATEGORICAL POPS FROM NBM WERE MAINTAINED ON SATURDAY. THERE'S  
ENOUGH MOVING PARTS TO THE SETUP THAT NOTEWORTHY CHANGES CAN BE  
EXPECTED AS KEY FEATURES MOVE ONTO THE PLAYING FIELD, THOUGH GIVEN  
HIGH POPS AT THIS LEAD TIME, CONFIDENCE IS A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE"

[Sciascia]

I see that little “low probability” yellow hairline bordering the entire lake.

Sorry Alek.