PowellVolz Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 The wind has really picked up the last hour here in the valley . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 I have almost as many limbs down as I did from the endless freezing fog last year. Amazingly, the screen blew out of my porch today. It tore loose. Never seen that happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 My power has been out twice this evening, but has come back both times. Wind is still howling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 Anyone know how things are going on the west slope of the Smokies this AM? I am hoping they got plenty of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greyhound Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Anyone know how things are going on the west slope of the Smokies this AM? I am hoping they got plenty of rain. I heard a brief report but can't remember all of it. Said something along the lines of higher humidity and dewpoints helped slow the spread some, but still struggling for containment. Interviewed a lady who lives in Wears Valley said the tourists and rubberneckers need to get out of the way so EMS can get to the fires. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greyhound Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 Now saying the fire has spread to 3,000 acres with zero containemnt (per the lt governor). Mandatory evacuations from Wears Valley and Walden Creek area. There's a news conference at 10am for updates. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 Looks like it damaged or destroyed ~100 homes/cabins. They are saying 5% containment, but likely feel the worst is behind them due to overnight rains. https://www.wbir.com/article/news/local/mayor-wears-valley-fire-about-5-percent-contained-consists-of-about-3700-acres/51-c7881c7b-a25d-47ca-b650-bc1600c9cc04 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 Incredible winds here last night. Schools had to close due to downed trees blocking so many roads. Just before it started raining the wind got up towards 80+ and it was an extended gust that lasted several minutes. I hadn't heard anything like that since we got a massive downburst back in the 1990s. A friend who moved here from Florida said "if you've never been in a hurricane, that was what it feels like." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 Winds with the line of storms were not that bad here. We actually had higher gusts with the gradient winds earlier in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 Winds were quite high end for our area last night which probably helped the fire explode. I am really curious to see how high the winds really were in those areas (I believe Cove Mountain gusted to 81 MPH0), and how high-end the winds were for our climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 A housing complex in Jellico in CC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 A housing complex in Jellico in CC. Wow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted April 1, 2022 Share Posted April 1, 2022 Looks active again on Tuesday and Wednesday . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 4, 2022 Author Share Posted April 4, 2022 Wed looks better,not sure what kind of moisture we get.Euro shows some VBV,see what happens the next model runs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 4, 2022 Author Share Posted April 4, 2022 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Mon Apr 04 2022 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN AL...NORTHERN GA...UPSTATE SC...FAR WESTERN NC AND SOUTHEAST TN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing swaths of damaging gusts and tornadoes are expected across a broad area from the Deep South into the southern Appalachians on Wednesday. The greatest risk area will encompass portions of central/northern Alabama into southeast Tennessee, far western North Carolina/South Carolina and northern Georgia. ...Deep South to the Southern Appalachians... A closed upper low and its attendant trough will deep and shift east from the Plains to the Upper Great Lakes/MS Valley on Wednesday. This will maintain deep-layer southwesterly flow across the Gulf Coast states into the Mid-Atlantic, resulting in a broad warm-advection regime ahead of the trough. A strong low-level jet around 40-50 kt will be somewhat more focused across parts of MS/AL into the Carolinas ahead of a strong surface cold front. This surface front is forecast to extend roughly from southeast MO into east-central TX Wednesday morning, while a warm front extends from the southern TN border into Upstate SC. The warm front should lift north into NC and possibly southern VA late in the period while the cold front sweeps eastward across the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast. A seasonally moist boundary layer will exist ahead of the surging cold front, with surface dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s across much of the southern/southeastern U.S. This will aid in moderate destabilization of a strongly sheared environment. Deep-layer flow largely parallel to the surface cold front will support linear convection, with another QLCS sweeping east across the southern U.S. likely. A swath of damaging gusts will accompany organized convection through the daytime across parts of MS/AL/TN/GA and into the southern Appalachians, the Carolinas and southern GA/northern FL during the evening/overnight. While damaging gusts appear the most likely hazard at this time, tornado potential will exist as well, both within the QLCS/mesovortices and in any semi-discrete convection should it develop ahead of the line. ..Leitman.. 04/04/2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted April 6, 2022 Share Posted April 6, 2022 Will GOM convection win tomorrow afternoon?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted April 6, 2022 Share Posted April 6, 2022 . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted April 6, 2022 Share Posted April 6, 2022 The cluster of storms shown by the HRRR in middle Alabama to Georgia hasn’t developed. The HRRR showed limited instability in Tennessee. The 3k NAM doesn’t show those storms south of Tennessee and has much greater instability in our area. DP in Knoxville is low to mid 60’s after starting out mid 40’s. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted April 6, 2022 Share Posted April 6, 2022 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted April 6, 2022 Share Posted April 6, 2022 MRX is really taking this more serious than usual . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted April 6, 2022 Share Posted April 6, 2022 The sun is out in Oak Ridge. I can definitely feel the air getting more humid. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8283 El Nino Baby Posted April 6, 2022 Share Posted April 6, 2022 Temp has jumped fast on the central plateau. Sunny and 75. Humidity at 66%. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted April 6, 2022 Share Posted April 6, 2022 I'm way behind. Drew up this when Mesoscale Discussion 422 came out. Then got sidetracked. Still worth comparing MD #422 with the old image. More notes below image, but first... However now MD #424 is more relevant to us. Feels like they'll go severe, not tornado watch. SPC put out a tornado watch for that southern boundary intersection. As expected went on gravity wave (yellow) intersection with maritime / yesterday outflow (dark green). Local enhanced SRH is almost Plains like. Our MD 424 is for the intersection of the traditional cool wedge (light green) and pre-frontal trough (light blue). It is more what I look for in the South. However, no LLJ saves Tennessee from much tornado action. I draw the cold front in dark blue, but it's less of a factor. Synoptic warm front is north of Kentucky. All boundaries were cross checked visible satellite and surface chart at the time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted April 6, 2022 Share Posted April 6, 2022 I swear it seems like the Enhanced risk area keeps growing further and further north and east 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted April 6, 2022 Share Posted April 6, 2022 I'm way behind. Drew up this when Mesoscale Discussion 422 came out. Then got sidetracked. Still worth comparing MD #422 with the old image. More notes below image, but first... However now MD #424 is more relevant to us. Feels like they'll go severe, not tornado watch. SPC put out a tornado watch for that southern boundary intersection. As expected went on gravity wave (yellow) intersection with maritime / yesterday outflow (dark green). Local enhanced SRH is almost Plains like. Our MD 424 is for the intersection of the traditional cool wedge (light green) and pre-frontal trough (light blue). It is more what I look for in the South. However, no LLJ saves Tennessee from much tornado action. I draw the cold front in dark blue, but it's less of a factor. Synoptic warm front is north of Kentucky. All boundaries were cross checked visible satellite and surface chart at the time.Maybe I read you wrong but you’re thinking the tornado action will be south of the dark green and ETn deals with just winds and hail? LLJ is too far south for us?. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted April 6, 2022 Share Posted April 6, 2022 MRX AFD: Discussion: As of 3PM ET temperatures were warming into the low to mid 70`s underneath partly cloudy skies. Radar shows a line of showers and a few thunderstorms developing across middle Tennessee associated with an approaching front. SW low level flow continues to advect a moist and increasingly unstable airmass northward this afternoon with RAP analyzing MLCAPE`s between 500-1000j/kg across the central/southern valley and plateau areas. The front will continue to progress east this afternoon with moisture advection continuing. Expect a gradual increase in storm coverage and intensity over the next couple of hours as this current activity moves into a more favorable airmass situated across east Tennessee. Shear will be more than adequate for updraft organization as deep layer shear increases to 40-50 knots (higher north of I-40). Shear vectors oriented just off the boundary will promote at least some discrete convection and line/bowing segments into the evening. While damaging winds will continue to be the main hazard, the threat of tornadoes certainly shouldn`t be ignored. Shear within the lowest 1km between 15-25 knots along with favorable LCL heights will maintain the tornado risk through the evening, especially south of I-40 where better instability will be located. Additionally, any rotating updrafts will contain a risk of large hail. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted April 6, 2022 Share Posted April 6, 2022 Low LCL heights is concerning . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VOLtage Posted April 6, 2022 Share Posted April 6, 2022 The sun has been out for a while now here in Maryville. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McMinnWx Posted April 6, 2022 Share Posted April 6, 2022 Same. It’s sunny and warm in Athens. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wintersnow888 Posted April 6, 2022 Share Posted April 6, 2022 5 minutes ago, VOLtage said: The sun has been out for a while now here in Maryville. Never cleared out here in Cumberland, sky has noticably gotten darker in last 2o minutes and cloud layer lowering.... starting to hear thunder 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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