nrgjeff Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 Showers percolating in southeast Mississippi are on and south of the Gulf Coast front lifting north, out ahead of the main surface trough and line of storms. Cells could be of interest. Gulf front will continue to lift north into east-central Miss. Main line of storms goes from West Miss into Louisiana. It's linear with QLCS tornadoes probable, and likely poor visibility. The new cells out ahead would perhaps provide better visibility; however, typical South challenges of terrain and trees exist. Also even the cells ahead could get into messy groups or clusters. HRRR is keying in on those southeast Miss cells 15-16Z runs. 12Z NAM missed them. 12Z FV3 was meh small cells. However one of the 12Z ARWs (NSSL research) hinted at the cells becoming rooted southeast Miss. Then going into Bama like the FV3. Latest HRRR runs have some ARW support. One could say the ARW is with HRRR (her). Satellite as of 12:30 Central shows vertical development, and turning with height as the baby anvils shear properly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 24, 2022 Share Posted March 24, 2022 Maybe a little more active, middle to the end of next week. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 25, 2022 Author Share Posted March 25, 2022 On 3/24/2022 at 6:58 AM, PowellVolz said: Maybe a little more active, middle to the end of next week. . Yeah have to wait a couple days and see what kind of instability we get.Wind shear turns SW on Wed and a decent LLJ showing especially by the Euro.It's still 5-6 days away so much can change 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 26, 2022 Author Share Posted March 26, 2022 STJ kicks in Wed.,system is more progressive than what the models showed in the past.No problem it seems with wind shear and helicity.See what the models shou the next few runs.Looks more diurnal driven either way for us with a wind advisory Wed 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 The 00z CAMs have several updraft helicity tracks up by Memphis on Wednesday, with the squall line. It's possible that this segment will have a hard time getting the higher CAPE values and discrete storms, but it still seems like this may be a very active area. This seems to be a very analogous situation to last week (3/22), when several tornado and wind reports happened north of Jackson Mississippi within the large squall line, a little north of the moderate risk contour. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 western Tennessee, enhanced risk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 29, 2022 Author Share Posted March 29, 2022 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA...EASTERN ARKANSAS...MISSISSIPPI...WESTERN TENNESSEE...ALABAMA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is expected on Wednesday across the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. All severe hazards are possible, including widespread damaging winds, some over 75 mph, and several tornadoes, some of which could be strong (EF2+). ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will eject from the southern Plains across the lower/mid MS Valley on Wednesday while acquiring a negative tilt. An 80-100+ kt south-southwesterly mid-level jet will accompany the shortwave trough passage. Low-level southerly flow is also expected to be very strong, with 50-70+ kt winds forecast at 850 mb. The primary surface low should be located over IA at the start of the period, with a cold front extending southward from this low across the central/southern Plains. A secondary surface low in closer proximity to the shortwave trough is forecast to develop from eastern OK to the Mid-South vicinity by Wednesday evening. At least low to mid 60s surface dewpoints are expected to return northward across the lower MS Valley and Southeast ahead of the secondary surface low, with the surface warm sector becoming increasingly pinched off with northward extent into the mid MS and OH Valleys. With strong forcing for ascent associated with the shortwave trough overspreading the warm sector through the day, thunderstorms will develop and move east-northeastward ahead of the cold front while posing a threat for both widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes. ...Lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast... A line of convection aided by strong low-level warm advection will likely be ongoing at the start of the period from the Ozarks southward across AR to east TX. This activity should continue to pose a threat for at least isolated damaging winds and tornadoes as it moves eastward Wednesday morning. Fairly widespread cloud cover ahead of the line and modest mid-level lapse rates should temper the degree of destabilization to some extent. Still, the increasing low-level moisture in tandem with filtered diurnal heating are expected to aid in sufficient boundary-layer destabilization to support surface-based storms. MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg should develop ahead of the line across LA into MS and surrounding areas by early Wednesday afternoon. This QLCS should strengthen Wednesday afternoon as it moves across northeastern LA, eastern AR, southeastern MO, and into much of the lower MS Valley and Mid-South. Aided by strengthening low/mid-level flow, increasing low-level and deep-layer shear will both become very strong, supporting updraft organization. With a primarily linear storm mode expected, widespread severe/damaging winds appear likely. The presence of a 50-70+ kt south-southwesterly low-level jet, and even stronger flow up to 75 kt at 700 mb, should enhance the prospects for significant severe wind gusts of 75+ mph at the surface within the most intense portions of the line Wednesday afternoon and evening. Very favorable low-level shear and elongated/sickle-shaped hodographs in the boundary layer will likely also support low-level rotation with embedded mesovorticies within the QLCS. Several tornadoes should occur across the lower MS Valley and Southeast in this regime, with circulations moving quickly east-northeastward. The potential for supercells to develop ahead of the line, or perhaps embedded within the line with southward extent, remains unclear. Any cells that can form ahead of the line would be favored to produce tornadoes, but the quick eastward progression of the QCLS may limit this possibility. Still, some guidance suggests the southern part of the line may become more broken with time Wednesday afternoon/evening. If this occurs, then a threat for embedded supercells capable of producing multiple strong (EF2+) tornadoes would exist. At this point, the greatest tornado potential may focus along southern portions of the line in MS/AL where a semi-discrete mode seems more plausible. Regardless, a continued threat for both damaging winds and tornadoes will likely persist Wednesday evening and overnight as convection spreads from the lower MS Valley into the TN Valley and Deep South. Thunderstorms should eventually weaken with eastward extent early Thursday morning as they outpace the low-level moisture return and encounter a less favorable thermodynamic environment. ...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley... Less low-level moisture and weaker instability are forecast across the mid MS Valley and OH Valley compared to locations farther south. However, enough boundary-layer instability should be present for the line of storms to produce scattered to perhaps numerous damaging winds as it moves eastward given the strength of the low-level flow. A few tornadoes may also occur with favorable low-level shear also present. The lack of stronger instability precludes greater severe probabilities across this region at this time. ..Gleason.. 03/29/2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 At 2pm it was 52 degrees at my house, now it’s almost 70. That’s some strong WAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA...EASTERN ARKANSAS...MISSISSIPPI...WESTERN TENNESSEE...ALABAMA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is expected on Wednesday across the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. All severe hazards are possible, including widespread damaging winds, some over 75 mph, and several tornadoes, some of which could be strong (EF2+). ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will eject from the southern Plains across the lower/mid MS Valley on Wednesday while acquiring a negative tilt. An 80-100+ kt south-southwesterly mid-level jet will accompany the shortwave trough passage. Low-level southerly flow is also expected to be very strong, with 50-70+ kt winds forecast at 850 mb. The primary surface low should be located over IA at the start of the period, with a cold front extending southward from this low across the central/southern Plains. A secondary surface low in closer proximity to the shortwave trough is forecast to develop from eastern OK to the Mid-South vicinity by Wednesday evening. At least low to mid 60s surface dewpoints are expected to return northward across the lower MS Valley and Southeast ahead of the secondary surface low, with the surface warm sector becoming increasingly pinched off with northward extent into the mid MS and OH Valleys. With strong forcing for ascent associated with the shortwave trough overspreading the warm sector through the day, thunderstorms will develop and move east-northeastward ahead of the cold front while posing a threat for both widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes. ...Lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast... A line of convection aided by strong low-level warm advection will likely be ongoing at the start of the period from the Ozarks southward across AR to east TX. This activity should continue to pose a threat for at least isolated damaging winds and tornadoes as it moves eastward Wednesday morning. Fairly widespread cloud cover ahead of the line and modest mid-level lapse rates should temper the degree of destabilization to some extent. Still, the increasing low-level moisture in tandem with filtered diurnal heating are expected to aid in sufficient boundary-layer destabilization to support surface-based storms. MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg should develop ahead of the line across LA into MS and surrounding areas by early Wednesday afternoon. This QLCS should strengthen Wednesday afternoon as it moves across northeastern LA, eastern AR, southeastern MO, and into much of the lower MS Valley and Mid-South. Aided by strengthening low/mid-level flow, increasing low-level and deep-layer shear will both become very strong, supporting updraft organization. With a primarily linear storm mode expected, widespread severe/damaging winds appear likely. The presence of a 50-70+ kt south-southwesterly low-level jet, and even stronger flow up to 75 kt at 700 mb, should enhance the prospects for significant severe wind gusts of 75+ mph at the surface within the most intense portions of the line Wednesday afternoon and evening. Very favorable low-level shear and elongated/sickle-shaped hodographs in the boundary layer will likely also support low-level rotation with embedded mesovorticies within the QLCS. Several tornadoes should occur across the lower MS Valley and Southeast in this regime, with circulations moving quickly east-northeastward. The potential for supercells to develop ahead of the line, or perhaps embedded within the line with southward extent, remains unclear. Any cells that can form ahead of the line would be favored to produce tornadoes, but the quick eastward progression of the QCLS may limit this possibility. Still, some guidance suggests the southern part of the line may become more broken with time Wednesday afternoon/evening. If this occurs, then a threat for embedded supercells capable of producing multiple strong (EF2+) tornadoes would exist. At this point, the greatest tornado potential may focus along southern portions of the line in MS/AL where a semi-discrete mode seems more plausible. Regardless, a continued threat for both damaging winds and tornadoes will likely persist Wednesday evening and overnight as convection spreads from the lower MS Valley into the TN Valley and Deep South. Thunderstorms should eventually weaken with eastward extent early Thursday morning as they outpace the low-level moisture return and encounter a less favorable thermodynamic environment. ...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley... Less low-level moisture and weaker instability are forecast across the mid MS Valley and OH Valley compared to locations farther south. However, enough boundary-layer instability should be present for the line of storms to produce scattered to perhaps numerous damaging winds as it moves eastward given the strength of the low-level flow. A few tornadoes may also occur with favorable low-level shear also present. The lack of stronger instability precludes greater severe probabilities across this region at this time. ..Gleason.. 03/29/2022I’m seeing on social media people calling this event a derecho but I thought a derecho actually needed a low pressure or some type of broad meso circulation? Can a squall line meet the criteria? I always thought a derecho was basically a stronger MCS. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 30, 2022 Author Share Posted March 30, 2022 5 hours ago, PowellVolz said: I’m seeing on social media people calling this event a derecho but I thought a derecho actually needed a low pressure or some type of broad meso circulation? Can a squall line meet the criteria? I always thought a derecho was basically a stronger MCS. . Usually ours come in the form of smaller clusters or MCS,like you mentiomed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 15 hours ago, PowellVolz said: I’m seeing on social media people calling this event a derecho but I thought a derecho actually needed a low pressure or some type of broad meso circulation? Can a squall line meet the criteria? I always thought a derecho was basically a stronger MCS. . Derechos come in two major forms, progressive and serial. You're probably thinking of a progressive derecho, which tend to consist of a single large (but usually somewhat more compact vs. a serial derecho) bow echo with an intense rear inflow jet and often a mesolow/wake low. A serial derecho is associated with a long, narrow squall line (several hundred miles N-S, say from the MS/OH River confluence down to the Gulf Coast) with multiple small bow echos/line-echo wave pattern signatures, and embedded mesovortices and/or supercells. Today's event is expected to be closer to the serial type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 Wind is really ripping here at the house. Ran into a few spotty squalls on my way home but other than that the heaviest is still an hour or so away. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 Wears Valley fire and evacuation looks pretty serious. One TV reporter is claiming tomorrow's rain will not be enough to put it out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 30, 2022 Author Share Posted March 30, 2022 1 hour ago, AMZ8990 said: Wind is really ripping here at the house. Ran into a few spotty squalls on my way home but other than that the heaviest is still an hour or so away. My trash can started to tumble down the road about a hour ago,sure hope we keep power 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 18 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: My trash can started to tumble down the road about a hour ago, Is your refrigerator running? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 28 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: My trash can started to tumble down the road about a hour ago,sure hope we keep power Me and you both. 5700 without power right now in Memphis according to MLgW. Tornado warning near Oakland Tn and another down by oxford 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 Greens to red on the radar, serious line of wind going through Fayette county 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 Wall cloud down in Mississippi around slate springs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 Rossville to Moscow on highway 57 is getting rotation now as well. This is about 45 miles from my house. Getting close to going through my area 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 80 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 530 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern and Central Alabama Middle Tennessee * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning from 530 PM until 100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Widespread damaging winds expected with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible SUMMARY...A fast-moving line of storms will continue quickly east-northeastward this evening into Middle TN and northern/central Alabama. Very strong low-level/deep-layer winds will support the potential for tornadoes and widespread damaging winds as additional moistening occurs into the region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 70/50 tor probs... >95/50 wind probs https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0080.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 To go along with the severe threat, we have fires on the west slope of GSMNP in Wears Valley. They are being driven by high winds which are preceding the storms. Not good. I mentioned in the obs thread...we have had maybe 3 severe threats during the past 4-5 years which have included bad fires. This is the second fire in that area this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 The fire in Wears Valley is now 1,000 acres with zero containment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Math/Met Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 30 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The fire in Wears Valley is now 1,000 acres with zero containment. The winds are starting to pick up in that area. Cove Mountain is now up to 74mph. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol Man Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 I'm afraid the Wears Valley situation is getting worse by the minute. I just saw a reference that has decreased the expected rain amount tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 38 minutes ago, Math/Met said: The winds are starting to pick up in that area. Cove Mountain is now up to 74mph. Just saw a twitter report on WATE...that is a long, long fire line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 I saw where stations around TRI are sending firefighters and equipment. You can see the plume on RadarScope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Math/Met Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: Just saw a twitter report on WATE...that is a long, long fire line. Terrible situation. I hope short range models are wrong, because they try to really increase wind gusts near that area over the next few hours. I'm hoping there's some limiting factor that keeps the higher end mountain waves winds from materializing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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