jaxjagman Posted April 2 Author Share Posted April 2 The thunderstorm cell looks more impressive than the tornado cell in SW TN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 2 Author Share Posted April 2 Neither has much rotation right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 2 Author Share Posted April 2 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 75 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 950 AM CDT Tue Apr 2 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Kentucky Western and middle Tennessee * Effective this Tuesday morning and afternoon from 950 AM until 300 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter likely SUMMARY...A loose cluster of storms in western Tennessee is expected to evolve into a couple of supercells while spreading east-northeastward toward southern Kentucky and middle Tennessee through midday and early afternoon. The environment ahead of the storms will be favorable for tornadoes, a couple of which could be strong (roughly EF2), as well as damaging gusts up to 75 mph and large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles north of Jackson TN to 45 miles north of Crossville TN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 70/40 TOR Watch probs with the Nashville area tornado watch. That's a lot higher than I anticipated. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Is it just me, or does it seem like this system is going to arrive in East TN faster than the 6 PM time frame that the local Mets are saying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 2 Author Share Posted April 2 3 minutes ago, Runman292 said: Is it just me, or does it seem like this system is going to arrive in East TN faster than the 6 PM time frame that the local Mets are saying? RAP and HRR shows more that will develop later on so we'll see 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Newest update from MRX: Forecast is on track this morning with severe weather potential expected later this afternoon and evening. Surface obs show a region of low to mid 60s dewpoints stretching from northern AL, through Middle TN, and southeast TN. With additional surface heating through the afternoon, models continue to show MLCAPE around 1000 J/Kg being likely combined with low level shear of 30+kt and bulk shear of around 50 to 60 kt. Model guidance shows fairly large, curved hodographs bringing a potential of mixed mode supercells and QLCS storms through the evening. Many of the CAMs this morning are having a difficult time resolving ongoing convection across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. In particular, the HRRR does not seem to be doing a great job with initialization at this time. With the available guidance, you can find a CAM to fit your priors of a very active severe weather event to a more quiet event. The main thing to focus on is that we will have sufficient instability and shear for severe weather - including damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes - later this afternoon and evening. The severe weather risk remains unchanged with the potential for a fairly widespread severe event across portions of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys late this afternoon through the early overnight hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 I’m wondering, concerned with the potential that the cluster complex in MTn lays down a boundary on its SE flank that could back low level winds more. I am worried about the plateau region into upper ETn including Knoxville. This area doesn’t look like it will see any crap showers and the sun continues to poke through at times. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 I also think this has high bust potential in Indiana and Ohio. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 2 Author Share Posted April 2 Nice thunderstorm,power got knocked off for a few min,wish it was at night,some intense lightning 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Here's a funny gaffe. 10 news was posting about the Tornado watch that was issued for Southeastern KY, but their graphic says tornado warning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 2 Author Share Posted April 2 3 minutes ago, Runman292 said: Here's a funny gaffe. 10 news was posting about the Tornado watch that was issued for Southeastern KY, but their graphic says tornado warning. Big tornado 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Sun is trying to come out in Oak Ridge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Sun is trying to come out in Oak Ridge.Yep. Coming out in Knoxville now. Lots of clearing down towards the southern valley. 74/66 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 MRX has released their AFD early: Discussion: The main impact in the forecast period will the the probability for severe thunderstorms later this afternoon through the early overnight hours. Much of the CAM guidance this morning has struggled with ongoing convection with a wide variety of potential outcomes for storm mode and evolution through the overnight hours. However, models have consistently shown 500 to 1500 J/Kg of MLCAPE late this afternoon into the early overnight hours with strong effective bulk shear of 60 to 60 kt with effective low-level shear around 30 kt. Hodographs are showing the potential for some significant length and curvature at times which would create a favorable environment for supercell structures that could coalesce into a QLCS line later this evening with embedded rotation. Current satellite and observations show a wide area of upper divergence across northern Mississippi and West Tennessee that will continue to transition eastward with the upper jet through the evening. Stronger DPVA will result in height falls, moreso after 21z today which will continue to erode the mid-level CAP and increase instability. Current observations show dew points in the low to mid 60s across the Tennessee Valley with a general surge northward through the evening as southwesterly flow increases across the area. All of this points to severe thunderstorms continue to be expected across much of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys with the potential for damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Sunny in Knoxville. 78/68 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Tornado warning north of me near Sunbright. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 2 Author Share Posted April 2 Some decent rotation starting to show west of Fairview Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 2 Author Share Posted April 2 Cells seem to be moving pretty quick now than earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Someone reported seeing a tornado touchdown with debris at Pilot Mountain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 2 Author Share Posted April 2 26 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Tornado warning north of me near Sunbright. Says thats a confirmed tornado 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greyhound Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Says thats a confirmed tornadoYep. Watching WBIR they are doing a good job showing radar, velocity and cor. coefficient as to how it’s depicted on radar. Talking debris balls and that it appears to be growing and tightening up.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shocker0 Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 30 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Tornado warning north of me near Sunbright. I graduated school there and went to Church in Mill Creek. Crazy. Rare tornado at the foot of mountains. It's headed Johns way, hopefully it lifts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 PDS now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 It's heading my way pretty quickly. We'll see how it does with Cross Mountain. It may shoot the gap there. Confirmed heavy damage in Sunbright. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 2 Author Share Posted April 2 see it wiped out a funeral home of all places 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Tornado Warning TNC013-151-022230- /O.NEW.KMRX.TO.W.0002.240402T2144Z-240402T2230Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Morristown TN 544 PM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024 The National Weather Service in Morristown has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Campbell County in east Tennessee... Southeastern Scott County in east Tennessee... * Until 630 PM EDT. * At 543 PM EDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located near Huntsville, or 11 miles southeast of Oneida, moving northeast at 35 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Public confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. * This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of Campbell and southeastern Scott Counties, including the following locations... Jellico, Elk Valley, Indian Mountain State Park, Fincastle, Royal Blue, White Oak, Norma, and Caryville. This includes Interstate 75 in Tennessee between mile markers 138 and 161. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 2 Author Share Posted April 2 Moving fast,looks like maybe south of Pioneer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 It's hitting a rapid elevation change from 1400 to 3400 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Stay safe East TN friends. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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