*Flash* Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 A quick minute from SWAD 2024. James is right. More TV mets should consider being more familiar with specific landmarks and reference points when doing storm coverage. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 A quick minute from SWAD 2024. James is right. More TV mets should consider being more familiar with specific landmarks and reference points when doing storm coverage. I have friends that have lived in the same area for 45+ years and when I send them a weather map, I can tell they are confused with where they are looking at. Mind blowing to me. My son is 9 and he can point out to where we live without cities on it. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 25 Author Share Posted February 25 17 hours ago, *Flash* said: A quick minute from SWAD 2024. James is right. More TV mets should consider being more familiar with specific landmarks and reference points when doing storm coverage. Went to SWAD a few years ago when he was there and he talked about the 2011 outbreak,he got really emotional about it and did a great presentation 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 I brought home a new NOAA weather radio yesterday much to the joy of my now 6-year-old daughter, Evy, who has a legit storm phobia. Also picked up James Spann's Benny and Chipper book. After the 12/9/23 event*, we're going into the next season fully prepared, lol. *I kid you not: She was so impacted by the tornadoes that day, she told me just last week the date the last tornado in our county hit (I.e. 12/9/23). Apparently, she was listening in the backseat when I was livestreaming damage reports the following day. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 Looks like Wednesday went poof. That’s never a bad thing. . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 27 Author Share Posted February 27 11 hours ago, PowellVolz said: Looks like Wednesday went poof. That’s never a bad thing. . Yeah,pretty strong cap did us in 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 Jet stream and better dynamics to our northwest. Not going to complain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 9 Author Share Posted March 9 Towards as we get into April we could get active again.We had a similar pattern back into 1998 with a minor SSW in March along with a ElNino quite similar to this one to an extent based on the ONI. 1997 -0.5 -0.4 -0.1 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.4 1998 2.2 1.9 1.4 1.0 0.5 -0.1 -0.8 -1.1 -1.3 -1.4 -1.5 -1.6 But anyways the MJO by the CFS is showing the MJO getting into Africa/western IO into the first/2nd week of AprilUntil then we should start to see the AAM rise then revert back into a -AAM into April, But during this time frame we saw some violent tornadoes into Alabama https://www.weather.gov/bmx/event_04081998 We also saw the F5 hit Larwenceburg,Tn around a week later No forecast,nothing to panic about but there is some similarities from 1998 that i'm seeing right now to be a active period possibly well into spring 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 9 Author Share Posted March 9 I'm still surprised more people didnt die in the Nashviile (downtown) from the F3 .The Kissimmee,Fl tornado (F3)was the worse in late Feb but the Birmingham F5 lifted 2 miles from downtown,that would have been catastrophic if it hit downtown.The chart is from fatalities in 1998 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 11 Share Posted March 11 I'm still surprised more people didnt die in the Nashviile (downtown) from the F3 .The Kissimmee,Fl tornado (F3)was the worse in late Feb but the Birmingham F5 lifted 2 miles from downtown,that would have been catastrophic if it hit downtown.The chart is from fatalities in 1998I’m just about positive we had damage in Powell and Halls from a tornado during this event. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 Bam Wx put out an informative long term forecast yesterday. He suspects the rapid ENSO evolution could result in a stormy April. Things look relatively tame and seasonal for most of our viewing areas until then. Of course, the same can’t be said for areas west and northwest of our state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 14 Author Share Posted March 14 4 hours ago, *Flash* said: Bam Wx put out an informative long term forecast yesterday. He suspects the rapid ENSO evolution could result in a stormy April. Things look pretty tame and seasonal for most of our viewing areas until then. I dont know.Some of the short range models are coming in quicker tomorrow,wouldn't surprise me if a slight risk was introduced further east next update close to Nashville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 On 3/14/2024 at 12:20 AM, jaxjagman said: I dont know.Some of the short range models are coming in quicker tomorrow,wouldn't surprise me if a slight risk was introduced further east next update close to Nashville Yeah, I knocked on wood with that post. Slight and marginal risks expanded eastward overnight. I’m not worried though, at least right now. If that slight risk encroaches into western middle, my antennas will elevate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 On 3/14/2024 at 8:08 AM, *Flash* said: Yeah, I knocked on wood with that post. Slight and marginal risks expanded eastward overnight. I’m not worried though, at least right now. If that slight risk encroaches into western middle, my antennas will elevate. How about those TVA’s in Kansas last night? Some textbook material for sure… Speak of the devil. They did it again. Another eastward shift! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 Terrible situation in Ohio tonight. . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 Looks like we might be trying to cook something up in about a week but the airmass out in front of the system could be a issue . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 April 1st and 2nd has an interesting look to it. Mid South, Ohio Valley region . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 3 hours ago, PowellVolz said: April 1st and 2nd has an interesting look to it. Mid South, Ohio Valley region . SPC states the predictability is too low at this point. We shall see what happens. On a separate note, if you would have asked me one month ago March would finish 4-5° above normal with only a handful of statewide reports (3/14/24 was our only semi-active day), I would have cited nonsense. A remarkably quiet month! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 SPC states the predictability is too low at this point. We shall see what happens. On a separate note, if you would have asked me one month ago March would finish 4-5° above normal with only a handful of statewide reports (3/14/24 was our only semi-active day), I would have cited nonsense. A remarkably quiet month!Return flow off the GOM has been closed for business. I don’t know all the reasons for that, I just haven’t went looking for why but east of the Mississippi River has absolutely dodged some bullets. The April 1st, 2nd system doesn’t look like return flow will be an issue, especially on Tuesday. If we get a phase over the mid west this could be a high end event. Gonna be pushing 80 in Knoxville with DP’s in the mid 60’s but it’s hard to tell the depth and quality of GOM return flow. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 Already a 15% added for Tuesday. If the mods are right, we gonna have some issues I’m afraid. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 29 Author Share Posted March 29 On 3/27/2024 at 7:31 AM, PowellVolz said: Return flow off the GOM has been closed for business. I don’t know all the reasons for that, I just haven’t went looking for why but east of the Mississippi River has absolutely dodged some bullets. The April 1st, 2nd system doesn’t look like return flow will be an issue, especially on Tuesday. If we get a phase over the mid west this could be a high end event. Gonna be pushing 80 in Knoxville with DP’s in the mid 60’s but it’s hard to tell the depth and quality of GOM return flow. . More or less a couple systems the warm sector has had a decent capping inversion for us. Tuesday like you mentioned is timing.If the Euro is right we'd have some broken cells into Tn by the cams,more severe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 29 Author Share Posted March 29 On 3/8/2024 at 11:21 PM, jaxjagman said: Towards as we get into April we could get active again.We had a similar pattern back into 1998 with a minor SSW in March along with a ElNino quite similar to this one to an extent based on the ONI. 1997 -0.5 -0.4 -0.1 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.4 1998 2.2 1.9 1.4 1.0 0.5 -0.1 -0.8 -1.1 -1.3 -1.4 -1.5 -1.6 But anyways the MJO by the CFS is showing the MJO getting into Africa/western IO into the first/2nd week of AprilUntil then we should start to see the AAM rise then revert back into a -AAM into April, But during this time frame we saw some violent tornadoes into Alabama https://www.weather.gov/bmx/event_04081998 We also saw the F5 hit Larwenceburg,Tn around a week later No forecast,nothing to panic about but there is some similarities from 1998 that i'm seeing right now to be a active period possibly well into spring 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 29 Author Share Posted March 29 Still think this is very similar to what happened in 1997-98 NINO/NINA.The surface is warming right now thanks to a WWB,during this time the subsurface along the IDL and even west got to around -3C into April,the CCKW into May along with the MJO made a quick dismise of NINO 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 31 Author Share Posted March 31 April 16,1998 top analog by the NAM,don't mean we'll see a repeat,could even change from the next few runs ,just saying. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 31 Author Share Posted March 31 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 I suppose April climo they gotta drop the 10% tor for Tuesday. NAM suite is quite linear and positive tilt. LLJ never restrengthens or backs late Tuesday. Now the Globals do so, and I figure CAMs like RRFS and HRRR do too; because, they go line of pearls. My gut says the NAM but it has a cool bias. That said the NAM can sniff out LLJ failures. So if you get anxious about severe, don't fret just yet. If you chase, it's conditional. I'll be tied down with work so no chase plans. Any personal forecasting is 100% eclipse right now. I hate the cloud cover forecast but some downward solar flux versions offer hope. As we saw in 2017 globals often start too cloudy due to resolution. Flux helps a bit, but of course the high-res stuff will be much more useful. We need another forecast rally in 2024! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Looks like it's going to be a busy day. ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A potentially substantial severe weather outbreak -- possibly including a few significant/long-track tornadoes -- is anticipated this afternoon and evening, with the highest probability centered over the Ohio Valley. Severe risk exists as far south as the Gulf Coast, and as far east as western portions of Virginia and the Carolinas. ...Discussion... Strong northern-stream upper low, currently located over southern MB, is forecast to drop south across MN into northern IL late in the period. This evolution is driven in part by a 500mb speed max that will translate across the central Plains, increasing to near 100kt over eastern KS/OK by 03/12z. Intense 12hr midlevel height falls are forecast across much of the Great Lakes, OH/TN Valley, and the northern Gulf States, where values in excess of 200m are expected during the latter half of the period. Synoptic front that is currently draped across the OH Valley will be encouraged to gradually advance north due to the digging trough; however, an extensive corridor of convection currently extends across the MS Valley into the OH valley, which is maintaining cool boundary-layer conditions north of I-70. Latest water-vapor imagery suggests a southern-stream short-wave trough is progressing across eastern KS/eastern OK. This feature will progress downstream and likely aid early-day thunderstorm development near the confluence of the MS/OH Rivers. Seasonally high PW airmass currently extends across northern AR/southern MO into southern IL. NAM forecast sounding for JBR at 15z exhibits 60kt surface-6km bulk shear with SBCAPE on the order of 1500 J/kg. Discrete supercells may evolve ahead of this feature then spread/develop northeast across southern IN/KY into OH. Some uncertainty exists across northern OH/IN regarding destabilization. It's not entirely clear if ongoing convection will allow the warm front to lift appreciably north of its current position. However, large-scale pattern is quite dynamic and favors surface low deepening over southern Lake MI during the latter half of the pattern. NAM struggles to reflect this scenario, thus weaker instability is forecast at higher latitudes. Tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail are expected with supercells that evolve across the warm sector. Some tornadoes may be long-lived and strong. Farther south, a bimodal severe threat may ultimately evolve with a secondary corridor of more concentrated severe across portions of the northern Gulf States. 500mb speed max is forecast to eject across northern Mexico into TX by 03/00z. This feature will intensify as it translates across LA into eastern TN by the end of the period. There is some concern that severe probabilities may need to be increased across this region to account for this low-latitude speed max during the evening/overnight hours. Strong shear will support supercells along with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Any thoughts on the recent update by MRX? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 2 Author Share Posted April 2 7 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Any thoughts on the recent update by MRX? Sound like winds and if cells can remain broken tornadoes possibly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 2 Author Share Posted April 2 HRR last couple runs keeps honing in on the TN/KY line for some possible strong tornadoes mid afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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