jaxjagman Posted January 23, 2022 Author Share Posted January 23, 2022 On 1/21/2022 at 9:32 AM, nrgjeff said: CFS and GFS weeklies are both trending toward the ECMWF weeklies, in that the second week of February may return to warmer than normal. Depending on the amount of toughing in the West and Plains -PNA? it will be time to think about early season severe weather and storm chasing. Waiting for the Plains has not been rewarding recent years. Chase everything in Dixie! Barring a sharply colder forecast change over the weekend, I'm about done in the winter threads. Chatty doesn't have a snowball in hell prayer early next week. Look for me in this thread. La Nina! Tee up early and often Southern severe!! Some of the anoms are acting like 2011 just a few weeks ahead ,.If the CFS is right It shows the MJO start to strenghten into the IO/Maritime and possibly a stronger signal into the WP.Either way, possibly a time to keep a eye out into the start of Met spring right now 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 4, 2022 Author Share Posted February 4, 2022 Oh man,look at that.Makes me think of Phil 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 5, 2022 Author Share Posted February 5, 2022 Seems maybe some cross breed from 2012 Nina to 2018 Nina.You can go beyond those times into the 1950's to the 1980 but GW is real.NINA looks like 1996,2001.2012,2018 and even 2021. 2012 was the off year with severe out of those years.But it produced some strong tornadoes east of 1-65 in spring and even the deadly Derecho in Chatty that year. Either way,the big record breaking -PNA in Dec since records were taking since 1950 with the help of the Aluetian High was set at -2.76 it was a big factor with our historic severe Fall season into Met winter https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 I feel like this thread is missing posts. At any rate it's always a good time to jawbone severe weather early and often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 Do we severe, or do we flood though? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 Both! What else would one expect in the South? LOL Dear ECMWF tee up some North Alabama Day 10.5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 4 minutes ago, nrgjeff said: Dear ECMWF tee up some North Alabama Day 10.5 Yeah I was about to say... Maybe it will finally reboot the TIMs model. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 8 minutes ago, nrgjeff said: Both! What else would one expect in the South? LOL Dear ECMWF tee up some North Alabama Day 10.5 Spring is almost here for sure, or at least spring followed by a little more cold during early March...then it could get wild. It is teed-up for you severe folks. Just keep the hail from shredding my roof and cars. $30K is enough for one decade! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 Perhaps the thunder followed by snow can verify in the mountains. Just saw another Southeast Tennessee system turn offshore snoozer. I've closed the books on winter Southeast Tenn. GFS picks up on the severe system Day 10 but there are typical questions 10 days out. Watch it slide south and snow on Chatty just to make me eat my words, haha! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Weekly products all support severe weather on or after President's Day. AN temps with AN precip Mid South or Deep South. Hints of a passing wave that week before a more robust SER. Then start Hoosier Alley season! Other evidence is a severe favorable MJO impulse. Also the Polar Vortex is locked up so no SSW to spoil early chase season. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 TIMS extended range model is running: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 Perhaps we can test the TIMS enhanced version. Tornado watches bring even more snow the next system. For those who get anxious about severe wx I'm just jawboning. Day 7 might as well be day 124. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 TIMS extended range model is running:It seems like anymore you copy that 15% area and use it over and over again for 8 months of the year. . 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 12, 2022 Author Share Posted February 12, 2022 If the CFS is anywhere right.It shows the Aluetian High what we possibly saw it into Dec in March again.This would promote a rather robust -PNA signal like we seen in Dec. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 12, 2022 Author Share Posted February 12, 2022 I still believe the best analog year is NINA of 2011-2012 for us in the Valley,plus it matches up well with the ENSO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianc33710 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Just now, jaxjagman said: I still believe the best analog year is NINA of 2011-2012 for us in the Valley,plus it matches up well with the ENSO.Only takes one big outbreak to not make your day . Had Cen AL not "benefitted" from flooding rains 17 & 25 March and then May 2021 we would've probably have had a much more serious severe weather outbreak than we actually had. Both March days did get bad with damaging tornadoes but convection worked over the area to the point that we stopped short of what most would consider "High Risk" events. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 12, 2022 Author Share Posted February 12, 2022 Early March of 2012 had a outbreak,if it happens again who know https://www.weather.gov/meg/march2_2012_severe_event 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 If it can happen in the Plains in early March, Hesston KS Mar. 13, 1990 it certainly happens in the South. That day in March 2012 was prolific on a national scale. This (Saturday) morning SPC expanded the Thursday 15% east to the Alabama Georgia line. Gets into the Lower Plateau as well. As for the MJO, we got a buffet line of convection going into the Maritime Continent. -PNA is indeed activated. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 13, 2022 Author Share Posted February 13, 2022 CIPS best analog for the upcoming days looks better in the East 3-6-92,mainly wind it seems right now.That was freaking nuts in Cen Fl March of 92 https://www.weather.gov/media/mlb/surveys/record_hailstorms.pdf 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 Mississippi I have more confidence in on Thursday. Surface temps should hit 70 degrees with 65 dews. Prefrontal trough will slam into that environment. Alabama will depend on how the warm front behaves. Midday rain would keep it stable. Morning rain lifting into Tennessee would open Alabama to outflow. Little if any rain would leave the warm front, but still surface heating questions. No rain would leave a stratus deck in tact. Stratus is pattern recognition early season warm 850 Ts. Bottom Line: Alabama has two paths to keeping stable and only one path to severe. Mississippi is probably reverse, a 2/3 chance of severe. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 @John1122 Happy times 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 16, 2022 Author Share Posted February 16, 2022 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Wed Feb 16 2022 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION EASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, Mid-South, and Southeast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Phasing of a northern-stream upper trough crossing central Canada and the north-central U.S. with a southern-stream trough crossing the southern Rockies/southern Plains will occur Thursday, with eastward progression of the consolidating feature expected. This system will be characterized by very strong deep-layer flow on its southeast flank, across the south central into the eastern CONUS. At the surface, a deepening low is progged to be shifting eastward out of Oklahoma across the northern Arkansas/far southern Missouri region through the day, and then northeastward along the Ohio Valley into the evening hours. A broad, moistening warm sector will exist across the Mid South and Southeast, until a cold front, advancing eastward with time, ushers in colder/drier air. This front is expected to reach the Mississippi Delta region during the afternoon, the Appalachian crest overnight, and then extend from the Mid-Atlantic region to the Florida Panhandle by 18/12Z. ...Arklatex region eastward across the Mid South and central Gulf Coast region... Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms will be ongoing at the start of the period from southeastern Kansas southward to eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas and into northeastern Texas at the start of the period, near and ahead of the advancing surface low/cold front. Meanwhile, largely elevated, warm advection-induced convection will extend northeastward across the Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys and vicinity. While meager CAPE is expected early in the period, strong flow aloft suggests that locally damaging wind gusts will be a possibility from the Arklatex region eastward toward the Mississippi Delta area through mid afternoon. With time, deepening of the low and associated strengthening of low-level southerlies will allow persistent northward theta-e advection to combine with modest/local diurnal warming, eventually yielding evolution of mixed-layer CAPE up to about 500 J/kg. Across Kentucky and areas north, a cool boundary layer should persist, resulting in slightly stable conditions beneath evolving, modest instability. However, this thermodynamic concern is partially offset by stronger ascent aloft spreading across this region -- along with the deepening low expected to track along roughly the Ohio River through late afternoon and into the evening. With this ascent likely to maintain partially forced convection, and given exceptionally strong/veering flow with height across this region, potential for locally damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes remains a possibility. Farther south, greater low-level theta-e advection suggests that the boundary layer will become at least neutral, and therefore greater certainty of surface- or near-surface-based storms exists -- both near the advancing cold front, and also with associated warm advection-driven bands of convection in the free warm sector. As noted above, very strong shear -- with south-southwesterly 850 mb winds in excess of 50 to 60 kt increasing to west-southwesterly at 70 to 90 kt at mid levels -- is suggestive of supercells, and attendant risk for damaging winds and several -- and possibly locally strong/damaging -- tornadoes. As such, an upgrade to enhanced risk is being introduced, centered across the Tennessee Valley area from late afternoon through the evening hours. ..Goss.. 02/16/2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 “As noted above, very strong shear -- with south-southwesterly 850 mb winds in excess of 50 to 60 kt increasing to west-southwesterly at 70 to 90 kt at mid levels -- is suggestive of supercells, and attendant risk for damaging winds and several -- and possibly locally strong/damaging -- tornadoes. As such, an upgrade to enhanced risk is being introduced, centered across the Tennessee Valley area from late afternoon through the evening hours”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 27, 2022 Author Share Posted February 27, 2022 Models are hinting at a decent Upper Level Ridge into the 2nd week of March around the Mid Atlantic along with a Caribbean HIGH,we could see some strong storms upcoming along with some potential hydro probs down the road if the models dont back down 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted March 1, 2022 Share Posted March 1, 2022 Yeah the signal could be there. Also seeing a possible colder 16-20 Day. One has to expect a significant system in the transition. Possible MJO move could support the severe wx pattern; however, it's quite muddled right now. Including tropical cyclones which are wild cards - though not as much so from the Southern Hemisphere. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 Friday free for all. Time to start jawboning Sunday and Monday. Sunday Slight gets into Western Tenn. Flat Arkansas Delta might be the most interesting chaser aspect. Heights are rising though. LLJ ramps up anyway. It's almost like a later spring setup. Monday the Day 4 covers the Region from I-40 south. Inverse of my usual snow commentary, ha. Main system is lifting away, but CAPE and wind shear remain in our warm sector. Lots of college basketball will probably keep me home Sunday. Work would be the problem Monday. Unless it mainly keeps south of Tenn. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 6, 2022 Author Share Posted March 6, 2022 MJO looks like it could possibly strenghten into the IO/Maritime the next several days.Euro shows a upper level ridge into East Asia around this time next weekend followed by a trough into East Asia.Possibly a time frame to watch i believe around the 3rd week of March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 9, 2022 Author Share Posted March 9, 2022 Help of a KW and MJO,we've got a +TNI right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 12, 2022 Author Share Posted March 12, 2022 MJO coming off Africa today as well as a KW is going to strenghten the MJO signal into the IO the next few days.Pretty strong signals for severe upcoming towards equinox spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 12, 2022 Author Share Posted March 12, 2022 Euro shows a trough moving through East Asia around the end of the work week.Sure looks like a period to watch for,least right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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