Tn Valley Severe Weather

[PowellVolz]

Potential severe in the eastern Valley tomorrow. Slight tornado potential prior to MCS formation.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Excerpt:

...TN Valley to the Carolinas/Southeast vicinity...
Thunderstorm clusters are expected to develop from Middle/eastern TN into northern AL/GA by early afternoon. Strong instability with MLCAPE values generally from 2000-4000 J/kg and effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt will support vigorous updrafts. Further south from the surface low, deep-layer flow (above 1 km) will generally be unidirectional from the west. Some modest backed low-level flow is forecast, which could support a tornado or two, but convection is expected to grow upscale into a bowing MCS fairly quickly as storms spread east across eastern TN/northern GA and the Carolinas during the afternoon/evening. Convection should gradually weaken as it approaches the coastal Carolinas after dark. Some uncertainty exists with regards to severe potential with southward extent. Deep-layer flow weakens with southward extent, but if southward propagating cluster develops, some wind risk can be expected into southern AL/GA given degree of instability and a very moist airmass/water-loaded downdrafts.

I’m really interested in tomorrow, especially if most of the day is quiet. EML is quite stout for this time of year. There’s some cams like the 3k NAM that’s showing the MCV passing just south of Knoxville and that would help back surface winds. Even MRX ended their morning disco with a statement about how Monday afternoon could be a significant event if it materialized.


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[PowellVolz]

Forecast
soundings suggest the greatest tornado threat will probably exist
across eastern KY/TN northeast across southern/eastern WV, western
VA, central MD and into southeast PA. Given the supercell wind
profiles, significant severe wind gusts will also be possible on a
localized basis.


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[Windspeed]

Yikes! Yes, I've been spreading the word to everyone. Regardless of the slight tornado risk, it looks like a legitimate threat of wind damage as these storms move through.

[Runman292]

Newest AFD from MRX:

Cumulus development is ongoing across central Kentucky which is
increasing confidence that the ingredients needed to create a severe
weather event are actually materializing this morning. Initiating is
ongoing near the strengthening LLJ as the aggressive shortwave moves
through. Mesoanalysis shows that all the severe parameters are
impressive this morning and with clouds clearing out this morning
the debris CU doesn`t look like it`s going to get in the way of
increasing instability in the low levels of the atmosphere. All
weather threats are possible today, including rotating supercells.
Based on current radar trends and refreshed CAMs the timing of
incoming storms has slowed down just a tad compared to previous
forecast with storms looking to move onto the plateau around noon
and quickly moving eastward, pushing east of the mountains before
sunset.

Main weather message for today is to keep an eye radar and the
latest warnings, especially for the commute home from school or work
as this is the peak time frame for severe storms.

[yoda]

Sounds like Tornado Watch could be coming in a few hours per MCD

 

 

   Mesoscale Discussion 1878
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0933 AM CDT Mon Aug 07 2023

   Areas affected...Portions of Tennessee Valley

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 071433Z - 071630Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...The threat for severe/damaging winds will increase over
   the next few hours. Tornadoes are also possible, particularly for
   more discrete storms across Tennessee. A watch is likely with timing
   probable by late morning.

   DISCUSSION...Convection is ongoing from Arkansas into western
   Tennessee. Given the speed and radar character of this suggests this
   activity is currently elevated in nature, especially farther west.
   However, modifying the 12Z observed OHX sounding for current surface
   conditions suggests that MLCIN is eroding rather quickly and
   strong/severe surface gusts may become more common in the next
   couple of hours. Wind profiles are strong for this time of year and
   2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE is already present into the Tennessee Valley.
   Furthermore, low-level shear is certainly sufficient for low-level
   rotation. Aside from a threat for severe/damaging wind gusts, there
   is also potential for tornadoes. The main question will be storm
   mode. Forcing for ascent may be enough to drive a more linear mode
   than discrete. Convection in western Tennessee is showing some
   stronger velocities on KNQA imagery. A watch is likely, but the
   exact timing of the increase in storm intensity is uncertain.
   Observations and guidance would suggest this could occur by late
   morning.

   ..Wendt/Guyer.. 08/07/2023

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...

[yoda]

Tornado Watch up until 7pm

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 600
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1120 AM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Western North Carolina
     Middle and Eastern Tennessee

   * Effective this Monday morning and evening from 1120 AM until
     700 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A few tornadoes possible
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
     Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...A combination of supercells and intense clusters/line
   segments will pose a severe threat through the afternoon, including
   the possibility of tornadoes and widespread damaging winds.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 115 statute miles
   east and west of a line from 55 miles north of Knoxville TN to 60
   miles south of Crossville TN. For a complete depiction of the watch
   see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.

   &&

[yoda]

 

[John1122]

This warned storm is about to hit me. Already a whole lot of thunder and it's almost as dark as night out.  

[PowellVolz]

Tornado developing near Sunbright


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[1234snow]

That storm over John will have to be watched closely as it moves eastward. Already pretty meaty.

[PowellVolz]

This warned storm is about to hit me. Already a whole lot of thunder and it's almost as dark as night out.  

You’re about to get hammered


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[1234snow]

Some #’s from the SPC meso page for East TN
Super cell composite up to 16
Bulk wind shear effective up to 50kts
CAPE - 2500 to 3500
Helocity 100-200 depending on which layer you look at
Sig Tor is up to 3

[John1122]

This one means business. Hail and a gust to 68 so far. 

[John1122]

Some trees down and the hail was nickel+ sized. I did just hear on the scanner that trees were across Shady Cove road but some ol' boys had already cut them out, so they canceled the county crew. (One out of every 4 vehicles has a chainsaw)

[Carvers Gap]

Tornado warning to the southwest of Johnson City.

[Runman292]

Just got a rare Destructive winds tag on the Warned storm in Knox County. 

[Dsty2001]

Took the wife to work in Bulls Gap, headed back noticed some clouds lowering.  Got home and about 5 minutes later this came through, pretty sure this is the wall cloud that spawned the TOR Warning in Greene Co.  Storm was pretty bad here, haven't lost power yet knock on wood.

[Dsty2001]

Outside of wind/tor/hail threat, if we get another round of storms I'm thinking flooding will be possible with the ground already saturated from the previous rain we've had in the last week (In Greene Co at least)

[PowellVolz]

Looks like a tornado will be confirmed in west Knoxville between Karns and Harden Valley. There was significant damage in the area and the radar had solid CC drop. The 60-80mph winds were legit. I was off Western Ave and got the first time in my life i actually took shelter when part of a large tree hit my work van. Lol


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[Stovepipe]

35 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Looks like a tornado will be confirmed in west Knoxville between Karns and Harden Valley. There was significant damage in the area and the radar had solid CC drop. The 60-80mph winds were legit. I was off Western Ave and got the first time in my life i actually took shelter when part of a large tree hit my work van. Lol


.

Whew, glad you're ok.  I'm thankful to have avoided any downed trees or significant hail in Halls.  But man, there were some VERY close lightning strikes, confirmed with RadarScope.  One had to have hit a tree a few yards away.  Instant sonic boom, felt the heat off it.

[PowellVolz]

Whew, glad you're ok.  I'm thankful to have avoided any downed trees or significant hail in Halls.  But man, there were some VERY close lightning strikes, confirmed with RadarScope.  One had to have hit a tree a few yards away.  Instant sonic boom, felt the heat off it.

Tornado damage in W Knoxville










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[PowellVolz]

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[Matthew70]

Thankfully no one is seriously hurt.  Crazy how wx can be so unpredictable.  That is pretty significant damage.  I’d say definitely EF1 maybe low end EF2. 

[dwagner88]

Evidently there is a lot of tree damage at Fall Creek Falls state park.

[Windspeed]

000
NOUS44 KMRX 081529
PNSMRX
TNZ067-068-082200-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1129 AM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023

...Preliminary EF-2 Storm Damage of the Lovell Crossing Apartments,
Knoxville Tennessee...

The preliminary damage assessments of the Lovell Crossing Apartments
in Knoxville Tennessee is a EF2 tornado with winds up to 130 mph and
a path width of 200 yards. The National Weather Service office in
Morristown TN will continue to assess the damage across the area
today. The survey is in relation to the severe thunderstorms that
moved through the area on Monday, August 7, 2023.

A final assessment including results of the survey are expected
to be completed and transmitted via a Public Information
Statement by 5 PM Today.

The storm survey information will also be available on our
website at https://www.weather.gov/mrx

$$

[Matthew70]

2 hours ago, dwagner88 said:

Evidently there is a lot of tree damage at Fall Creek Falls state park.

My father-in-law was there camping. It took them two hours to get out.

[jaxjagman]

Tpmorrow has been upgraded Ozarks to Mid South to a enhanced

[jaxjagman]

[8283 El Nino Baby]

5 hours ago, dwagner88 said:

Evidently there is a lot of tree damage at Fall Creek Falls state park.

Yeah, just drove through today to drop my brother off at the lodge (he works their). Power was out and they told him it could take ten days to restore. My power just came on about 15 miles west of Falls Creek Falls.

[Wurbus]

I live probably about 2 miles north of where the Tornado went through and had no idea it was happening at the time. Luckily, the wind wasn't too bad at my house, we just received around 1.2" of rain in about 20 minutes.